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Central PA Autumn 2024


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MU's Tuesday PM update:

Unfortunately, the forecast from tonight through the end of the week is still not "cut and dry" or "set in stone." Instead, there is still a large amount of uncertainty with respect to the timing, intensity and amount of any rain across southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. As mentioned above, a weak low pressure system will develop well off the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines later tonight into Wednesday. It may then track northwest for a brief period of time and get closer to the mid-Atlantic coastline. However, its northward progression will ultimately be stopped by the large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, associated with the large high pressure system over New England and eastern Canada. As a result, the system will stall off the mid-Atlantic coastline late this week or slowly meander back out to sea. Over the past 2-3 days, computer models have shown zero consistency from run-to-run in the placement, strength and track of the coastal low. They are having a hard time resolving areas of tropical convection both near and hundreds of miles off the mid-Atlantic coastline (see below). These areas of convection are expected to eventually interact with one another, but the timing and nature of this interaction is still difficult to finesse. The surface low pressure system will initially form near one of these clusters of thunderstorms and then draw moisture from the others inward toward itself. Obviously, the farther offshore the low forms/tracks, the less rain will fall north of the Mason-Dixon Line and west of I-95. A track closer to the coast would mean numerous showers or even periods of steady to perhaps heavy rain across southeastern PA, Delaware and parts of New Jersey later tonight into Thursday. I won't dive into the weeds here, but I continue to favor the drier outcome and a track farther out to sea. Rain across Virginia is currently not as intense, widespread or as far north as anticipated just 24-36 hours ago, so I see no reason why that trend won't continue over the next two days. "Rex blocks" are often stronger and suppress storm systems farther south than modeled, and this case seems to be no exception. We'll know soon..

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WGAL really downplaying rain chances.  Had around .4" far West LSV and close to nothing East and North of Harrisburg.  

Removing the low and high outliers, this map seems to depict what a lot of the middle ground progs are showing right now as to general areas where it would rain harder or longer.

 

image.thumb.png.c770d5aef4e3e1220bf2ad7c5330fb8b.png

 

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The game sure has changed over the years, hasn't it?
Eagles with a 4th and 4 early on - I'm telling my wife that they should take the points and move on, but I knew that Sirianni was going to go for it. He did, and they didn't get it. An easy call to second guess; however, there was a time when 100% of coaches in the NFL would have gladly taken the 3. The game has evolved into...gambling. LOL. Dan Campell, the Staley dude that got canned in LA are/were other coaches who wouldn't think twice about forgoing the points and gambling on getting 6. 
In that scenario, I felt strongly that you take the points. It figured to be a possession/low scoring game...it was, and those missed 3 points ended up huge.
Analytics are bit different than gambling. Also what happens if you miss the field goal. Thinga would be a bit different if you could just take a guarantee 3 points anytime you got in the red zone if you like.

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I intentionally left him off to keep my emotions in check here at work. Damn you, Jon for getting me wound up. 
Tomlin's has many issues...maybe one of his worst is clock management. 
When I get mad I think about how the Steelers were in the mid to late 80s and become thankful

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10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Rain was officially reported at Hagerstown with the 8 pm Ob.

Hopefully that means it’s raining in Rouzerville.

Maybe the hose gets the day off tomorrow?

That's what she said.

.04" so far.   

AM models are caving to the dryer solutions. 0Z EC vs. yesterday 12Z. Nearly 3" drops in some places. 

image.thumb.png.3186ab490fb6f18b00928f9c7d941750.png

image.thumb.png.df62fda7afb9fed59be985a1135add81.png

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