Central PA Autumn 2024

[paweather]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the waves track under us, the right timing & precip intensity would help the winter weather cause.

Love it bring it Bliz and Mitch! 

[paweather]

Who pays for Sixers tickets? God awful 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Who pays for Sixers tickets? God awful 

They are an embarrassment.

Interesting contrast between Philly's 2 big winter teams - one has talent but very little heart. The other has minimal talent but plays it's ass off every night.

I know which team gets my money.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z NAM gets front end snow from the turnpike area & to the north early on Turkey Day.

[MAG5035]

I think given the lack of a surface high to the north and much antecedent cold air available the best play for this potential Thanksgiving system is for a weaker/more suppressed wave. The 0z NAM was pretty close to delivering what the Euro has been advertising with a stronger wave that lifts the boundary just a little bit too much. Thus it gave probably about as good a solution as you could ask for in this setup for the central/northern counties. NAM solution kind of splits the difference between that and the 0z GFS and RGEM so far, which are weaker and more suppressed but still get some precip into PA. With either scenario temps are going to be very marginal and may still not be cold enough in the southern tier and Sus Valley even with the farther south/weaker scenario. Temps will be seasonably chilly after the frontal passage tomorrow night thru Thanksgiving but late November seasonably chilly is borderline with delivering snow. We need anomalously chilly.. which is only coming behind the system. 

Beyond that lies one of the colder starts to December we’ve seen in awhile, with solidly below average temps looking quite likely. Deep cyclonic flow centered south of Hudson Bay is going to light up the Lakes all the way through the holiday weekend. Flow initially looks okay to get our favored Laurels areas (Friday night) but then mostly appears to favor WNW/westerly downwind lakes locations just north of C-PA for most of the weekend. Some semblance of a weak clipper type wave showing around Sunday-ish on all models, which may be the best shot at a light snowfall in the interim. 0z GFS/Canadian too far south with it.  The Euro.. while still plenty cold here seems to be running a tighter boundary and had a better solution at 12z (although major downsloping off the Alleghenies). That run progged -12ºC at 850 and -20ºC at 700mb. Obviously would be a high ratio event with numbers like that. Pretty far out of course, but thats the quick rundown on that feature. Wouldn’t take much to turn that into a nice widespread light event given that it’s going to be plenty cold at the surface and especially aloft. At any rate, ski season should be able to get an early start this year as this colder pattern looks to have at least some staying power. Only issue of course is the lack of bigger storms showing on the pattern, as it looks to be a mainly northern stream dominant regime and fairly progressive. But we’ll see how that evolves in time.