Central PA Autumn 2024

[Voyager]

9 hours ago, canderson said:

Life has been chaos for the past few days. Is that tropical thing off the coast of the Carolinas coming here? We really need rain.  

Euro said yes kind of, GFS said not so much, at least per DTs Facebook post.

[Blizzard of 93]

51 in Marysville this morning.

[mahantango#1]

It was 48 this morning here.

[ChescoWx]

Several of the lower spots in Chesco dropped into the 40's overnight with the lowest being the 46.1 at Warwick Township higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than 53.6.

We should not see overnight lows that cool again until next weekend as we have an increasingly cloudy more humid and possibly wet week on tap starting tomorrow night. Rainfall still does not look that impressive unless you head south and east of Philly but we can hope.

Chester County daily records for today: High 96 degrees at Phoenixville (1942) / Low 36 degrees at West Chester 2NW (1983) / Rain 7.85" at Coatesville 2W (1999) this was associated with the rains from Hurricane Floyd the 2 day total was 8.31" at Coatesville but over in Thorndale (where I lived at that time) we picked up a 2 day total of 8.61" of rain.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12 hours ago, canderson said:

Life has been chaos for the past few days. Is that tropical thing off the coast of the Carolinas coming here? We really need rain.  

To me, it feels like we're on the periphery of a decaying storm, and while there may be some stray outer bands that come through, I'd be surprised if we see anything resembling a soaking rainfall.  With that said, tropical systems love to surprise.  The one thing we can count on for most of the week is winds out of the east and plenty of cloudiness.

Low of 51 here.  Not sure if I wasn't paying close enough attention to my local forecast but was surprised to see it go that low.

[Superstorm]

To me, it feels like we're on the periphery of a decaying storm, and while there may be some stray outer bands that come through, I'd be surprised if we see anything resembling a soaking rainfall.  With that said, tropical systems love to surprise.  The one thing we can count on for most of the week is winds out of the east and plenty of cloudiness.
Low of 51 here.  Not sure if I wasn't paying close enough attention to my local forecast but was surprised to see it go that low.

I got down to 51F as well. I believe forecast lows have gone below most forecasts the last couple weeks.


.

[mitchnick]

6z Euro went south.

What the heck has happened to the models? 3-5 day forecasts are just useless anymore. 

[paweather]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro went south.

What the heck has happened to the models? 3-5 day forecasts are just useless anymore. 

Getting ready for winter. 

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro went south.

What the heck has happened to the models? 3-5 day forecasts are just useless anymore. 

I think they did fairly well in the mid and long term, but yea models really change drastically short term more than I think they used to.   You and I were chatting about this system a good 5-7 days ago.   It has been a constant struggle over the last week in how much the pig ridge was going to push this thing south of us. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU is calling for a 30% chance of a passing shower later tomorrow into early Wednesday.

WPC cut back on expected rainfall by 75% in just one update:

[mitchnick]

Beautiful 65 degrees, cloudy, and dreams of wet snow changing to rain in Hanover. 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think they did fairly well in the mid and long term, but yea models really change drastically short term more than I think they used to.   You and I were chatting about this system a good 5-7 days ago.   It has been a constant struggle over the last week in how much the pig ridge was going to push this thing south of us. 

The mesos are wetter than the globals if that means anything. 

[Itstrainingtime]

51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro went south.

What the heck has happened to the models? 3-5 day forecasts are just useless anymore. 

Had a conversation with @Bubbler86 about this a few times over the past year.

Model watching to me isn't that dissimilar to gambling. I made sort of a negative comment about betting yesterday and a couple of friends responded with fair, reasonable reasons why they do gamble. (it's fun, good to do in moderation, makes watching sports more relevant, etc.) Even if it's not my thing, I can completely respect that. And for those that have fun with it and manage it well, awesome!

I do tend to be a literal person. I also tend to be someone who extends trust perhaps quicker and easier than others. (and maybe more than I really should) There was a time when I took models almost verbatim...yeah, that's on me, and again, it's sort of a part of the "extension of trust" issue that I have. After getting burnt so many times, I got to the point where I was like "no more." I have very little trust in any weather model and have become skeptical up until whatever the models were showing is actually happening in my yard. At the same time, like gambling...models are put in front of us for analysis, discussion, etc. so I completely understand those who invest time into model analysis. It's a hobby, an extension of being a weather weenie. It makes more sense probably than my own personal stance. 

At the end of the day I most likely have distanced myself from it almost as a safeguard to prevent myself from getting too invested, and ultimately...let down. Again. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think they did fairly well in the mid and long term, but yea models really change drastically short term more than I think they used to.   You and I were chatting about this system a good 5-7 days ago.   It has been a constant struggle over the last week in how much the pig ridge was going to push this thing south of us. 

And to add to your theme of the models constantly showing something a week out, it looks like they want to do it again next week.  Rain perpetually on the horizon, yet never arriving ha. 

[Superstorm]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Had a conversation with @Bubbler86 about this a few times over the past year.

Model watching to me isn't that dissimilar to gambling. I made sort of a negative comment about betting yesterday and a couple of friends responded with fair, reasonable reasons why they do gamble. (it's fun, good to do in moderation, makes watching sports more relevant, etc.) Even if it's not my thing, I can completely respect that. And for those that have fun with it and manage it well, awesome!

I do tend to be a literal person. I also tend to be someone who extends trust perhaps quicker and easier than others. (and maybe more than I really should) There was a time when I took models almost verbatim...yeah, that's on me, and again, it's sort of a part of the "extension of trust" issue that I have. After getting burnt so many times, I got to the point where I was like "no more." I have very little trust in any weather model and have become skeptical up until whatever the models were showing is actually happening in my yard. At the same time, like gambling...models are put in front of us for analysis, discussion, etc. so I completely understand those who invest time into model analysis. It's a hobby, an extension of being a weather weenie. It makes more sense probably than my own personal stance. 

At the end of the day I most likely have distanced myself from it almost as a safeguard to prevent myself from getting too invested, and ultimately...let down. Again. 

Like you, I have no faith in models.  I only use them for trends now.

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Had a conversation with @Bubbler86 about this a few times over the past year.

Model watching to me isn't that dissimilar to gambling. I made sort of a negative comment about betting yesterday and a couple of friends responded with fair, reasonable reasons why they do gamble. (it's fun, good to do in moderation, makes watching sports more relevant, etc.) Even if it's not my thing, I can completely respect that. And for those that have fun with it and manage it well, awesome!

I do tend to be a literal person. I also tend to be someone who extends trust perhaps quicker and easier than others. (and maybe more than I really should) There was a time when I took models almost verbatim...yeah, that's on me, and again, it's sort of a part of the "extension of trust" issue that I have. After getting burnt so many times, I got to the point where I was like "no more." I have very little trust in any weather model and have become skeptical up until whatever the models were showing is actually happening in my yard. At the same time, like gambling...models are put in front of us for analysis, discussion, etc. so I completely understand those who invest time into model analysis. It's a hobby, an extension of being a weather weenie. It makes more sense probably than my own personal stance. 

At the end of the day I most likely have distanced myself from it almost as a safeguard to prevent myself from getting too invested, and ultimately...let down. Again. 

 

20 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

And to add to your theme of the models constantly showing something a week out, it looks like they want to do it again next week.  Rain perpetually on the horizon, yet never arriving ha. 

It is a but uncanny and unfortunate the way qpf seems to be missing us more times than not.  It is widely known that I am all over the "drought band wagon" but imagine where we would be had the Aug 7-9th time frame never happened.   I still think it rains some in the next 2 days, but the area wide soaker theory is tough to see happening now.   In defense of the models this was a very winter storm like situation where something was forming off the SE coast and the timing and eventual track was always in question due to the lack of data until the system formed. Model watching is indeed a lot of gambling if you go all in and proclaim it as fact when speaking to people who listen to your weather chops.  When models are stated as fact, you probably have a good 50/50 chance of being wrong.  For a lot of people (JI comes to the forefront) the model watching is really the bigger deal and the actual weather that happens is the under card.  

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The mesos are wetter than the globals if that means anything. 

The Nam and Fv3 have nothing of note over my way.  Discouraging. 

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Nam and Fv3 have nothing of note over my way.  Discouraging. 

Yep. 12z went with globals. 6z Nam was around 2" out your way. Lol

[mitchnick]

Niña falls are notoriously dry without tropical activity, so expect more of the same if the tropics remain underwhelming. 

[Bubbler86]

Nooners...mostly cloudy and 65.  Very windy, a bit too much to be comfortable.

 

Just noticed this post from MU last week.   He will have had a good call if the current trend continues and whatever rain we may get also goes to the wayside. 

Refer to Tuesday's discussion below for more in-depth details on the quiet pattern. Looking ahead into the middle and latter part of next week, the forecast remains rife with uncertainty. A storm system may develop along an old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the Florida/Georgia coastline from Monday into Tuesday, but it's equally as likely that it doesn't. Even if development occurs, the "Rex Block" over the Northeast may keep the system offshore or force it westward into the Carolinas or southern mid-Atlantic States. Only if the block weakens more quickly than anticipated could the system track northward and veer into the Delmarva Region and southern PA. Usually, blocking patterns of this nature take a long time to break down, and their strength and duration are often underestimated by computer models. I expect this case to be no exception and, as a result, lean toward a dry outcome and continuation of partly-to-mostly sunny and warm weather next Wednesday-Friday. However, this is just my gut instinct (from experience) and by no means a lock, so check back on Tuesday for an update. As I always like to say: "Only time will tell." In the meantime, enjoy the spectacular weather this weekend, and lather on the sunscreen! 

 

[canderson]

71 at 12:50. No wind here @Bubbler86 - keep that shit down there. 

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, canderson said:

71 at 12:50. No wind here @Bubbler86 - keep that shit down there. 

I had a gust of 37 but more sustained in the teens near 20. 

[Jns2183]

So does anyone have a good run down of how model verification scores are calculated and where we might find them? Also when is the next scheduled update for each one? The eye test says the physics packages are increasingly getting worse, but does anyone have an inkling to why?

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[Itstrainingtime]

72 in Maytown right now - feeling much better than the mid and even upper 80s we just experienced. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

So does anyone have a good run down of how model verification scores are calculated and where we might find them? Also when is the next scheduled update for each one? The eye test says the physics packages are increasingly getting worse, but does anyone have an inkling to why?

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This is the link to model verification scores at 500mb from 120 hours out. It doesn't help with precise precip or temp forecasts. Unfortunately, the link hasn't been updated for some reason unknown to me. Keep checking back as eventually it will be.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

So does anyone have a good run down of how model verification scores are calculated and where we might find them? Also when is the next scheduled update for each one? The eye test says the physics packages are increasingly getting worse, but does anyone have an inkling to why?

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Weather models perform their work with calculations based on current data and past/historical data.  The current data is always flawed by weather stations that are not working correctly or missing data so there is one hole there.  Secondly, if our environment is warming as many here believe, where does that leave the validity of historical data suggesting what happened before will happen again?   Some argue that newer models use atmospheric physics but said physics are governed but history whether scientists want to admit it or not. 

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2021/12/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable

 

[Jns2183]

Weather models perform their work with calculations based on current data and past/historical data.  The current data is always flawed by weather stations that are not working correctly or missing data so there is one hole there.  Secondly, if our environment is warming as many here believe, where does that leave the validity of historical data suggesting what happened before will happen again?   Some argue that newer models use atmospheric physics but said physics are governed but history whether scientists want to admit it or not. 

I thought they took a top down approach to scoring, i.e. the verification of 500mb projections followed by 850mb, ect. I used to know the statistical tests they used eons ago, but it's now all cobbled together with whiskey brands

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[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I thought they took a top down approach to scoring, i.e. the verification of 500mb projections followed by 850mb, ect. I used to know the statistical tests they used eons ago, but it's now all cobbled together with whiskey brands

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I was replying to your second question re: why they could be doing worse, at least on ground truth, over time.   But like Mitch said I always thought the scoring was primarily UL based and not on day-to-day weather on the ground. 

[Bubbler86]

The icon and nam 12 are now both very wet for much of southern PA in the next 48 hours.   It is like a soap opera of models. 

[Jns2183]

The icon and nam 12 are now both very wet for much of southern PA in the next 48 hours.   It is like a soap opera of models. 

Days of south central Pa is much preferable to previous years Days of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Speaking of the Steelers, I was ringing my head trying to figure out why this year, so far, has felt much different than last despite the low scoring. I believe the answer is last year our time of possession was average the first half of the session was like 27 min and this year it's like 34 mins

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