paweather Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If the waves track under us, the right timing & precip intensity would help the winter weather cause. Love it bring it Bliz and Mitch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Who pays for Sixers tickets? God awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, paweather said: Who pays for Sixers tickets? God awful They are an embarrassment. Interesting contrast between Philly's 2 big winter teams - one has talent but very little heart. The other has minimal talent but plays it's ass off every night. I know which team gets my money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 The 0z NAM gets front end snow from the turnpike area & to the north early on Turkey Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 I think given the lack of a surface high to the north and much antecedent cold air available the best play for this potential Thanksgiving system is for a weaker/more suppressed wave. The 0z NAM was pretty close to delivering what the Euro has been advertising with a stronger wave that lifts the boundary just a little bit too much. Thus it gave probably about as good a solution as you could ask for in this setup for the central/northern counties. NAM solution kind of splits the difference between that and the 0z GFS and RGEM so far, which are weaker and more suppressed but still get some precip into PA. With either scenario temps are going to be very marginal and may still not be cold enough in the southern tier and Sus Valley even with the farther south/weaker scenario. Temps will be seasonably chilly after the frontal passage tomorrow night thru Thanksgiving but late November seasonably chilly is borderline with delivering snow. We need anomalously chilly.. which is only coming behind the system. Beyond that lies one of the colder starts to December we’ve seen in awhile, with solidly below average temps looking quite likely. Deep cyclonic flow centered south of Hudson Bay is going to light up the Lakes all the way through the holiday weekend. Flow initially looks okay to get our favored Laurels areas (Friday night) but then mostly appears to favor WNW/westerly downwind lakes locations just north of C-PA for most of the weekend. Some semblance of a weak clipper type wave showing around Sunday-ish on all models, which may be the best shot at a light snowfall in the interim. 0z GFS/Canadian too far south with it. The Euro.. while still plenty cold here seems to be running a tighter boundary and had a better solution at 12z (although major downsloping off the Alleghenies). That run progged -12ºC at 850 and -20ºC at 700mb. Obviously would be a high ratio event with numbers like that. Pretty far out of course, but thats the quick rundown on that feature. Wouldn’t take much to turn that into a nice widespread light event given that it’s going to be plenty cold at the surface and especially aloft. At any rate, ski season should be able to get an early start this year as this colder pattern looks to have at least some staying power. Only issue of course is the lack of bigger storms showing on the pattern, as it looks to be a mainly northern stream dominant regime and fairly progressive. But we’ll see how that evolves in time. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 30 this AM. Just for fun, thickness in the 400's almost in PA. A chunk of PV. 300 hours and ensembles do not agree to this extent and GFS is totally different...and as Mag pointed out, suppression city. NS dominant. Not a good look for snow except maybe as it is departing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Great for lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Damn DT has another service: NEW FOR THIS WINTER… WxRisk is starting a new winter forecast product: SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST. This new forecast product for the winter 2024 - 25 is designed for teachers/ schools, and school districts. This product is useful for an individual school or college or a school district or for schools in a particular county. With this forecast product, you get advance warning of significant winter weather conditions such as snow, ice, extreme cold, freezing conditions, (such as Black Ice), heavy rain, and high winds. In short any kind of winter weather conditions that may impact school operations including getting into the schools during the early morning hours and having the kids in adults leave the school in the afternoon. The SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST has a special focus on the days/ mornings AFTER the winter storm comes to an end. Many locations in the Middle Atlantic and the Ohio Valley often see snow melt from the afternoon sun that refreezes at night and causes problems the next morning. Or there may be a wet snowfall that initially does not appear to be much of a problem, but temperatures drop rapidly behind the storm, and everything freezes hard. Many TV forecasters, as well as NWS, or private weather service companies, don't offer this kind of specific information to your particular School District. But the WxRisk SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST does. If your school or School District organization is interested in this kind of forecast product, please send a email, contact person... the name of the school the School District... phone number to [email protected] 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 30 degrees this morning. Thanks Mag for your insights! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Damn DT has another service: NEW FOR THIS WINTER… WxRisk is starting a new winter forecast product: SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST. This new forecast product for the winter 2024 - 25 is designed for teachers/ schools, and school districts. This product is useful for an individual school or college or a school district or for schools in a particular county. With this forecast product, you get advance warning of significant winter weather conditions such as snow, ice, extreme cold, freezing conditions, (such as Black Ice), heavy rain, and high winds. In short any kind of winter weather conditions that may impact school operations including getting into the schools during the early morning hours and having the kids in adults leave the school in the afternoon. The SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST has a special focus on the days/ mornings AFTER the winter storm comes to an end. Many locations in the Middle Atlantic and the Ohio Valley often see snow melt from the afternoon sun that refreezes at night and causes problems the next morning. Or there may be a wet snowfall that initially does not appear to be much of a problem, but temperatures drop rapidly behind the storm, and everything freezes hard. Many TV forecasters, as well as NWS, or private weather service companies, don't offer this kind of specific information to your particular School District. But the WxRisk SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST does. If your school or School District organization is interested in this kind of forecast product, please send a email, contact person... the name of the school the School District... phone number to [email protected] At least it is not [email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At least it is not [email protected]. With all the services he's offering he should be everyones number 1 go to guy. Wonder if he provides advanced snowfall accumulation maps...for a fee? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: With all the services he's offering he should be everyones number 1 go to guy. Wonder if he provides advanced snowfall accumulation maps...for a fee? Imagine the first time he gets a forecast wrong and he tells a Superintendent that reality and the universe doesn't give a shit about him being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Imagine the first time he gets a forecast wrong and he tells a Superintendent that reality and the universe doesn't give a shit about him being wrong. DT wrong...never. Those snow accumulation maps and start times are second to none. Cant wait for the first snow start time. And no I can't do no better than him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 29 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: With all the services he's offering he should be everyones number 1 go to guy. Wonder if he provides advanced snowfall accumulation maps...for a fee? Just use the Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 34, but quite frosty when I left home this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 32 in Marysville currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 NAM still has snow for most north of the turnpike for Thanksgiving am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 We have had a very mild month so far here in November with 18 of the 24 days averaging warmer than normal. We will continue that pattern both today and tomorrow before we trend to below normal temperatures to close out November and start December. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning but end by afternoon. More rain arrives Thanksgiving morning and should last into Friday morning. The coldest air so far this season arrives for the weekend and high temperatures may struggle to get much above freezing in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Low of 34. Love the look of the unrelenting cold being depicted on the models post-Thanksgiving. I'll do a little end of month calculation sometime later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 42 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Oh the pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Hope we miss the precip Thanksgiving. A rainy Thanksgiving sucks. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 9 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I think given the lack of a surface high to the north and much antecedent cold air available the best play for this potential Thanksgiving system is for a weaker/more suppressed wave. The 0z NAM was pretty close to delivering what the Euro has been advertising with a stronger wave that lifts the boundary just a little bit too much. Thus it gave probably about as good a solution as you could ask for in this setup for the central/northern counties. NAM solution kind of splits the difference between that and the 0z GFS and RGEM so far, which are weaker and more suppressed but still get some precip into PA. With either scenario temps are going to be very marginal and may still not be cold enough in the southern tier and Sus Valley even with the farther south/weaker scenario. Temps will be seasonably chilly after the frontal passage tomorrow night thru Thanksgiving but late November seasonably chilly is borderline with delivering snow. We need anomalously chilly.. which is only coming behind the system. Beyond that lies one of the colder starts to December we’ve seen in awhile, with solidly below average temps looking quite likely. Deep cyclonic flow centered south of Hudson Bay is going to light up the Lakes all the way through the holiday weekend. Flow initially looks okay to get our favored Laurels areas (Friday night) but then mostly appears to favor WNW/westerly downwind lakes locations just north of C-PA for most of the weekend. Some semblance of a weak clipper type wave showing around Sunday-ish on all models, which may be the best shot at a light snowfall in the interim. 0z GFS/Canadian too far south with it. The Euro.. while still plenty cold here seems to be running a tighter boundary and had a better solution at 12z (although major downsloping off the Alleghenies). That run progged -12ºC at 850 and -20ºC at 700mb. Obviously would be a high ratio event with numbers like that. Pretty far out of course, but thats the quick rundown on that feature. Wouldn’t take much to turn that into a nice widespread light event given that it’s going to be plenty cold at the surface and especially aloft. At any rate, ski season should be able to get an early start this year as this colder pattern looks to have at least some staying power. Only issue of course is the lack of bigger storms showing on the pattern, as it looks to be a mainly northern stream dominant regime and fairly progressive. But we’ll see how that evolves in time. I have monumental respect for your knowledge being a local, but reading your posts at 12:30 while trying to comfort a farting toddler with a stomach ache out of one bloodshot eye and dealing with a slipped disc and trying to take in all the information is a fate worse than death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Oh the pain. Why worry over 6 hour old models? (Though 12Z is worse to start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: Damn DT has another service: NEW FOR THIS WINTER… WxRisk is starting a new winter forecast product: SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST. This new forecast product for the winter 2024 - 25 is designed for teachers/ schools, and school districts. This product is useful for an individual school or college or a school district or for schools in a particular county. With this forecast product, you get advance warning of significant winter weather conditions such as snow, ice, extreme cold, freezing conditions, (such as Black Ice), heavy rain, and high winds. In short any kind of winter weather conditions that may impact school operations including getting into the schools during the early morning hours and having the kids in adults leave the school in the afternoon. The SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST has a special focus on the days/ mornings AFTER the winter storm comes to an end. Many locations in the Middle Atlantic and the Ohio Valley often see snow melt from the afternoon sun that refreezes at night and causes problems the next morning. Or there may be a wet snowfall that initially does not appear to be much of a problem, but temperatures drop rapidly behind the storm, and everything freezes hard. Many TV forecasters, as well as NWS, or private weather service companies, don't offer this kind of specific information to your particular School District. But the WxRisk SCHOOL SNOW FORECAST does. If your school or School District organization is interested in this kind of forecast product, please send a email, contact person... the name of the school the School District... phone number to [email protected] ALRIGHT, YOU SHITHEADS! IN THE SPIRIT OF CHRISTMAS, SANTA TOLLERIS HAS A NEW PRESENT. FOR $95.99, I WILL COME TO YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD MEETING AND TAKE A COLOSSAL DUMP RIGHT ON THE PODIUM IN FRONT OF YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS WHILE LAMBASTING THEM FOR NEVER GIVING THESE KIDS A SNOW DAY. FLEXIBLE INSTRUCTION? FLEX DEEZ NUTS! AND FOR AN ADDITIONAL $750,000.00, I WILL MOVE MY ENTIRE HOME INTO YOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT AND GET MYSELF ELECTED ONTO THE SCHOOL BOARD AND I WILL MAKE SURE THESE IDIOTS ARE TEACHING ABOUT THE DANGERS OF THE FLAT F#+$ING EARTH! ALEET! ALEET! ALEET! ALEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: I have monumental respect for your knowledge being a local, but reading your posts at 12:30 while trying to comfort a farting toddler with a stomach ache out of one bloodshot eye and dealing with a slipped disc and trying to take in all the information is a fate worse than death. I started meaning to mainly just comment on Thursday and got a bit carried away haha. I could always yell out the details condescendingly for 5.99/week lol. Grammatical and spelling errors are gonna cost extra though. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 NAM tracks low to south but no cold air in place so it looks like an elevation event again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: NAM tracks low to south but no cold air in place so it looks like an elevation event again. Tis the season..... Getting closer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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