Central PA Autumn 2024

[paweather]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

James Franklin played to WIN today and not to NOT LOSE.

Great game 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

From DT: ABOUT THANKSGIVING DAY EAST COAST LOW ... RAIN NOT SNOW  

 

Unless you are in the mountains of PA, NY, and or Central and Northern New England the low pressure area which hits the East Coast on Thanksgiving Day is primarily a rain event. A cold rain and a lot of rain which will help with the drought but it's raining. There are other individuals out there in social media on X Facebook etc who are trying to argue or suggesting that there could be snow in the I-95 corridor from the system.  

 

That is bullshit .

 

This is where you have to understand what the atmosphere is telling you as opposed to just looking at a particular model that happens to drop a lot of snow on your back porch because you wanted that to be true.  

 

Cherry picking information and data is not science and it is certainly not rational whether whether you are doing it for politics economics philosophy religion or meteorology. 

 

Reality and the universe doesn't give a shit what you want.

 

1 Going into the event temperatures are going to be Seasonally mild on Wednesday- There won't be any cold air in place at the beginning of the event from New England to Georgia and as far east as OH and TN. 

 

2. The upper pattern/ 500mb is completely wrong. 

 

3. The surface LOW forms along the cold front in ARL/ western TN and track into the Ohio valley/ WV. This drives a ton of low-level mild air into the entire East Coast especially given that there will not be a cold HIGH pressure area to the north in Northern New England / southern Quebec / or the eastern Great Lakes. S the mild air overruns everybody as the rain moves in.  

 

4. The LOW pressure area will jump over the mountains and reform on the NJ coast on Thursday night / early Friday but by then all the cold air is scoured out of southern New York State and southern New England. Eventually the LOW moves off the New Jersey coast the winds become northerly so there will likely be heavy snow In interior NY State (NOT NYC) and central and northern New England.

 

In other words this will be a classic late November East Coast Autumn LOW. It will make the Thanksgiving holiday cold and wet up and down the East Coast and it will make you happy that you are indoors having good food where it's warm and hopefully with family members and friends around who aren't complete assholes.

 

 On a side note across the Southeast region the rain may be more like showers Early Thanksgiving with some breaks Followed by steady rain and perhaps some thunderstorms in that region Thanksgiving night.

 

 **** note that the 12z Saturday Euro has the LOW tracking MUCH further west than it 6z European model**

I don't know why Dave went into meteorology when it's obvious from his tender, caring writing skills, a job in palliative care or hospice would have been where could have shined as a soul mate to the dying. I can just hear him now...

-Come on and die mf'er, you can't live forever 

-Hurry up, already, discounted funerals are always available mid-week, not that anyone will show up to see your shriveled old azz

[Wxdavis5784]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

It took me 15 min to go from Sheetz as you enter town from Cross Keys over to approx where Lowes is....what is that a mile?  

if that.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

34 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

James Franklin played to WIN today and not to NOT LOSE.

I have no idea what to make of that beautiful mess ha. Looked like a coaching calamity there for a while. But man, I’ll take it. The Minnesota memories had been haunting me all week. Happy to escape with the dub. 

[WmsptWx]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I have no idea what to make of that beautiful mess ha. Looked like a coaching calamity there for a while. But man, I’ll take it. The Minnesota memories had been haunting me all week. Happy to escape with the dub. 

The coaching was atrocious. Allen schemed wrong the entire game, Kotelnicki was too damned cute, and Franklin made some stupid decisions, but I gotta tell you; that drive he coached like his job was on the line. It probably was. He was playing with house money. He bet on himself and it surprisingly worked. 

[canderson]

Windy tonight - 32 mph frequent gusts 

[mahantango#1]

JB says snow around the I-80 corridor, maybe as far south as the I-70 corridor Thanksgiving. Big cities rain. 

[Itstrainingtime]

My intuition, which honestly is usually very good, told me that today was going to be either a close win or a demoralizing loss. I was hedging on the latter - relieved to leave Minny with a W. They better run the Terps out of town next week. That team is a trainwreck right now.

[Itstrainingtime]

MU continues to pound the holidays for the LSV next chance of wintry precip of any consequence. Doesn't like next week at all.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB says snow around the I-80 corridor, maybe as far south as the I-70 corridor Thanksgiving. Big cities rain. 

Did he bother to say how much snow? I honestly haven't read him for at least 10 years and I recall he loved to claim victory when it was a vague forecast of snow and not much ever felling he insinuated much more. He did have some great calls years ago, but haven't heard anyone touting anything great in a long time.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Did he bother to say how much snow? I honestly haven't read him for at least 10 years and I recall he loved to claim victory when it was a vague forecast of snow and not much ever felling he insinuated much more. He did have some great calls years ago, but haven't heard anyone touting anything great in a long time.

I70 corridor is Baltimore. Lol.  Jb has it covered.  

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Did he bother to say how much snow? I honestly haven't read him for at least 10 years and I recall he loved to claim victory when it was a vague forecast of snow and not much ever felling he insinuated much more. He did have some great calls years ago, but haven't heard anyone touting anything great in a long time.

He didn't give amounts but he said if your traveling on Thanksgiving you better be prepared for it.

[Bubbler86]

0z icon favors the I86 corridor.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Boomer Sooner! 

Now let's see how we can get a 3 loss Bama team into the playoffs...

[mahantango#1]

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

0z icon favors the I86 corridor.

 

Wheres the I 86 corridor?

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wheres the I 86 corridor?

A long, long way from us.

Northwest PA/SW NY.

[Blizzard of 93]

The Thanksgiving & Friday forecast is far from resolved…

The 6z GFS shows All precip missing to the south as colder air presses is this run.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro was much different. It showed a 994 low tracking to Pittsburgh.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Long way to go until Turkey day weather is resolved.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long way to go until Turkey day weather is resolved.

Here is the 6z GFS at the same time stamp.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long way to go until Turkey day weather is resolved.

These models look as confused as Joe Biden. 

[Bubbler86]

7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Boomer Sooner! 

Now let's see how we can get a 3 loss Bama team into the playoffs...

A little obscure but topical

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 6z GFS at the same time stamp.

Fwiw, Icon says it rains. SE of Euro, but rain nonetheless because of warm atmosphere to start. Does go with the double system idea Gfs once had.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

A little obscure but topical

 

[Voyager]

I wish...

Thanksgiving Day

Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[pawatch]

DT Vs JB what’s the forum coming to?  
I’ll take Mag for 100 

Currently 40 degrees this morning. 

[mahantango#1]

18 minutes ago, pawatch said:

DT Vs JB what’s the forum coming to?  
I’ll take Mag for 100 

Currently 40 degrees this morning. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts for Thanksgiving.

All medium range model guidance tracks an area of low pressure
northeast from the Lower Miss Valley late next week, likely spreading
precipitation across PA for Thanksgiving Day. There remains plenty
of uncertainty inherent in a day 5 forecast regarding the exact
surface low track and resulting ptypes. However, a large
majority of ensemble members support a moderate precipitation
event late Wed night through Thursday with mean qpf around a
half inch. Lack of a blocking high suggests any snow may be
confined to a relatively narrow corridor on the northern edge of
the precip shield. Early thermal profiles indicate the best
chance for a few inches of snow will be over the N Mtns, with
all rain likely near the Mason Dixon Line.

 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts for Thanksgiving.

All medium range model guidance tracks an area of low pressure
northeast from the Lower Miss Valley late next week, likely spreading
precipitation across PA for Thanksgiving Day. There remains plenty
of uncertainty inherent in a day 5 forecast regarding the exact
surface low track and resulting ptypes. However, a large
majority of ensemble members support a moderate precipitation
event late Wed night through Thursday with mean qpf around a
half inch. Lack of a blocking high suggests any snow may be
confined to a relatively narrow corridor on the northern edge of
the precip shield. Early thermal profiles indicate the best
chance for a few inches of snow will be over the N Mtns, with
all rain likely near the Mason Dixon Line.

 

There is still hope!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 45. Some wild games yesterday and some classic fall weather on tap. Let’s go Pack!