Central PA Autumn 2024

[Bubbler86]

VEB nooners in Hanover.  52 which is warmer than I thought it would get today.  Wind makes it feel cold.  I have lived in Philly, Harrisburg and very busy Florida and the traffic here in Hanover still drives me nuts.  Want to get into starlight diner?  You have 5 min of waiting in a line just go get there.  Part of the issue is sams club. 

[paweather]

12z GFS game on!

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

12z GFS game on!

Wet and muddy turkey bowls in lsv.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wet and muddy turkey bowls in lsv.

Yeah I was hoping but hope doesn’t always work 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, paweather said:

Yeah I was hoping but hope doesn’t always work 

It’s very close, we will likely be riding the line.

[paweather]

Maybe the 2nd wave? 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s very close, we will likely be riding the line.

Yeah, for central and north, but trend going the wrong way still. Just not enough cold air injected after the front comes thru. More climo than pattern is the problem. 

[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, for central and north, but trend going the wrong way still. Just not enough cold air injected after the front comes thru. More climo than pattern is the problem. 

Still lots of time for the small adjustment needed for the PA line on north.

 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Still lots of time for the small adjustment needed for the PA line on north.

 

Ukie another suppressed and strung out solution.

[mitchnick]

Euro puts many in central and southern PA out of our misery early. Lol

Wonder if it's stopped trending nw?

[paweather]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro puts many in central and southern PA out of our misery early. Lol

Wonder if it's stopped trending nw?

For sure now a tug south

[mitchnick]

The problem with early season cold waves is the lack of cold at the surface. Compare 850 anomalies to surface anomalies. 

[Superstorm]

The problem with early season cold waves is the lack of cold at the surface. Compare 850 anomalies to surface anomalies. 

Exactly. Climo.

You need an anomalous cold or anomalous wrapped up system to deliver in November.


.

[Wxdavis5784]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

VEB nooners in Hanover.  52 which is warmer than I thought it would get today.  Wind makes it feel cold.  I have lived in Philly, Harrisburg and very busy Florida and the traffic here in Hanover still drives me nuts.  Want to get into starlight diner?  You have 5 min of waiting in a line just go get there.  Part of the issue is sams club. 

Was out with the family in Hanover and traffic seemed worse than usual.

[paweather]

Does HH deliver? Come on 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Was out with the family in Hanover and traffic seemed worse than usual.

It took me 15 min to go from Sheetz as you enter town from Cross Keys over to approx where Lowes is....what is that a mile?  

[mahantango#1]

From DT: ABOUT THANKSGIVING DAY EAST COAST LOW ... RAIN NOT SNOW  

 

Unless you are in the mountains of PA, NY, and or Central and Northern New England the low pressure area which hits the East Coast on Thanksgiving Day is primarily a rain event. A cold rain and a lot of rain which will help with the drought but it's raining. There are other individuals out there in social media on X Facebook etc who are trying to argue or suggesting that there could be snow in the I-95 corridor from the system.  

 

That is bullshit .

 

This is where you have to understand what the atmosphere is telling you as opposed to just looking at a particular model that happens to drop a lot of snow on your back porch because you wanted that to be true.  

 

Cherry picking information and data is not science and it is certainly not rational whether whether you are doing it for politics economics philosophy religion or meteorology. 

 

Reality and the universe doesn't give a shit what you want.

 

1 Going into the event temperatures are going to be Seasonally mild on Wednesday- There won't be any cold air in place at the beginning of the event from New England to Georgia and as far east as OH and TN. 

 

2. The upper pattern/ 500mb is completely wrong. 

 

3. The surface LOW forms along the cold front in ARL/ western TN and track into the Ohio valley/ WV. This drives a ton of low-level mild air into the entire East Coast especially given that there will not be a cold HIGH pressure area to the north in Northern New England / southern Quebec / or the eastern Great Lakes. S the mild air overruns everybody as the rain moves in.  

 

4. The LOW pressure area will jump over the mountains and reform on the NJ coast on Thursday night / early Friday but by then all the cold air is scoured out of southern New York State and southern New England. Eventually the LOW moves off the New Jersey coast the winds become northerly so there will likely be heavy snow In interior NY State (NOT NYC) and central and northern New England.

 

In other words this will be a classic late November East Coast Autumn LOW. It will make the Thanksgiving holiday cold and wet up and down the East Coast and it will make you happy that you are indoors having good food where it's warm and hopefully with family members and friends around who aren't complete assholes.

 

 On a side note across the Southeast region the rain may be more like showers Early Thanksgiving with some breaks Followed by steady rain and perhaps some thunderstorms in that region Thanksgiving night.

 

 **** note that the 12z Saturday Euro has the LOW tracking MUCH further west than it 6z European model**

[Bubbler86]

24 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

From DT: ABOUT THANKSGIVING DAY EAST COAST LOW ... RAIN NOT SNOW  

 

Unless you are in the mountains of PA, NY, and or Central and Northern New England the low pressure area which hits the East Coast on Thanksgiving Day is primarily a rain event. A cold rain and a lot of rain which will help with the drought but it's raining. There are other individuals out there in social media on X Facebook etc who are trying to argue or suggesting that there could be snow in the I-95 corridor from the system.  

 

That is bullshit .

 

This is where you have to understand what the atmosphere is telling you as opposed to just looking at a particular model that happens to drop a lot of snow on your back porch because you wanted that to be true.  

 

Cherry picking information and data is not science and it is certainly not rational whether whether you are doing it for politics economics philosophy religion or meteorology. 

 

Reality and the universe doesn't give a shit what you want.

 

1 Going into the event temperatures are going to be Seasonally mild on Wednesday- There won't be any cold air in place at the beginning of the event from New England to Georgia and as far east as OH and TN. 

 

2. The upper pattern/ 500mb is completely wrong. 

 

3. The surface LOW forms along the cold front in ARL/ western TN and track into the Ohio valley/ WV. This drives a ton of low-level mild air into the entire East Coast especially given that there will not be a cold HIGH pressure area to the north in Northern New England / southern Quebec / or the eastern Great Lakes. S the mild air overruns everybody as the rain moves in.  

 

4. The LOW pressure area will jump over the mountains and reform on the NJ coast on Thursday night / early Friday but by then all the cold air is scoured out of southern New York State and southern New England. Eventually the LOW moves off the New Jersey coast the winds become northerly so there will likely be heavy snow In interior NY State (NOT NYC) and central and northern New England.

 

In other words this will be a classic late November East Coast Autumn LOW. It will make the Thanksgiving holiday cold and wet up and down the East Coast and it will make you happy that you are indoors having good food where it's warm and hopefully with family members and friends around who aren't complete assholes.

 

 On a side note across the Southeast region the rain may be more like showers Early Thanksgiving with some breaks Followed by steady rain and perhaps some thunderstorms in that region Thanksgiving night.

 

 **** note that the 12z Saturday Euro has the LOW tracking MUCH further west than it 6z European model**

Is this a forecast or one of his posts on this forum?  LOL.    Is he talking to me when he says don't give a shit what you want?  I can get this abuse from others without having to give him my $5.

 

Surprised how warm it got today.  Thought the zones were 40's or low 50's and the meso's were 40's yet most got into the mid 50's with some upper 50's and low 60's on Wunder.   

[Bubbler86]

How the hairs have changed

 

[mahantango#1]

31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Is this a forecast or one of his posts on this forum?  LOL.    Is he talking to me when he says don't give a shit what you want?  I can get this abuse from others without having to give him my $5.

 

Surprised how warm it got today.  Thought the zones were 40's or low 50's and the meso's were 40's yet most got into the mid 50's with some upper 50's and low 60's on Wunder.   

It's DT, you wouldn't expect any less from him. With nothing etched in stone yet, he could be wrong. 

[Bubbler86]

31 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

It's DT, you wouldn't expect any less from him. With nothing etched in stone yet, he could be wrong. 

I do not fully agree with his antecedent cold argument for our area, maybe I95.    But I was surprised in the conversive nature of his article. DT's festivus.    But this has been a long shot for several runs in a row of models. 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I do not fully agree with his antecedent cold argument for our area, maybe I95.    But I was surprised in the conversive nature of his article. DT's festivus.    But this has been a long shot for several runs in a row of models. 

 

 

Since 6z today….?

Plenty of time for adjustments.

[Bubbler86]

The turkey bone issue is the PA Weather 540 line is 1/3 of the way up into PA before the precip gets here.    It does not matter where it was 2-3 days before, if it was sinking down in VA we are getting a snow storm

 

[Bubbler86]

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I still think at least the I-81 corridor is still in the game.

[Chris78]

24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Unfortunately this one ain't for us. As you stated it's been slipping away for several runs now.  Hopefully we can get another shortwave pass by to our south the first week of December when the cold air should be more stout. 

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Unfortunately this one ain't for us. As you stated it's been slipping away for several runs now.  Hopefully we can get another shortwave pass by to our south the first week of December when the cold air should be more stout. 

It’s too close to throw in the towel yet for many places in CTP, especially back near the I -81 corridor to the northwest.

[paweather]

42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s too close to throw in the towel yet for many places in CTP, especially back near the I -81 corridor to the northwest.

I still think we got this!

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, paweather said:

I still think we got this!

I’m just saying it’s too early to be towel throwing for those of us near I-81 & to the north & west.

This won’t be resolved until Monday night or Tuesday.

[WmsptWx]

James Franklin played to WIN today and not to NOT LOSE.