Central PA Autumn 2024

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

PSUHoffman reporting 3" and counting. 

We are up to 2-3" on the areas of grass that is has acummed from the start.  Still nothing on the roads despite it being 28-29ish.  Snow + right now. 

[Bubbler86]

Never know how valid these radar estimates are but this one is showing the snow collapsing quickly as some layers warm enough to change to rain OR rates slow down. 

 

[GrandmasterB]

Mulch is caving 

[Chris78]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are up to 2-3" on the areas of grass that is has acummed from the start.  Still nothing on the roads despite it being 28-29ish.  Snow + right now. 

Nice

Was in Waynesboro earlier and just white rain there.

Drive up to the top of rt 77. Several inches of snow and roads covered. 30 degrees up there

Back in Smithsburg it's been white rain all day but in the last 30 minutes it's starting to stick to the deck and grass Temp dropped to 32

 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Nice

Was in Waynesboro earlier and just white rain there.

Drive up to the top of rt 77. Several inches of snow and roads covered. 30 degrees up there

Back in Smithsburg it's been white rain all day but in the last 30 minutes it's starting to stick to the deck and grass Temp dropped to 32

 

 

Yea, we are right on the cusp of accums.  Nothing 1/2 mile away.   I bet some roads are covered in Blue Ridge as well.     Not sure why the roads here are not caving at all.  Roofs started when the sun lessened as the suns was pushing through a bit earlier.  Grass has been picking up from the start.  

[paweather]

Rain now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

All rain here. Finished with a T. 

[Bubbler86]

@mitchnick you are off your ensemble game.  A lot of the GEFS runs must have snow for the median to look like it does. 

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

All rain here. Finished with a T. 

Without getting into details the models that showed the retrograde and snow changing to rain this afternoon did a pretty good job.  Accums were always overstated for marginal areas. 

[WmsptWx]

The changeover to rain. It just hasn't happened here. Still coming down quite heavily. 

[Itstrainingtime]

@Mount Joy Snowman in my quest to see snow on the ground, I made the short 15 minute drive to Sam Lewis. It did not disappoint. It's a winter wonderland up here. 

[canderson]

If you see snowflakes in the air but of course nothing sticks to anything, is that measurable? 

Edit: To be more precise, can I say that today was a trace and the first snowfall? 

[DDweatherman]

Pretty good snow in Carroll Valley again 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Pretty good snow in Carroll Valley again 

Any accumulations in carrol valley?

[WmsptWx]

Rain is starting to mix in

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman in my quest to see snow on the ground, I made the short 15 minute drive to Sam Lewis. It did not disappoint. It's a winter wonderland up here. 

Oh wow I was curious myself if that would be enough to do the trick. Glad to hear it came through! 

[paweather]

This is a win even though no accums it was great to hear others with a significant event! HH GFS don’t disappoint. 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

This is a win even though no accums it was great to hear others with a significant event! HH GFS don’t disappoint. 

The moisture itself is a win. It's rained basically constant (even if lightly) since 7 am.

[WmsptWx]

Disregard. Heavy snow again.

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

The moisture itself is a win. It's rained basically constant (even if lightly) since 7 am.

Agreed. I didn’t have rain until 2. it was snowing moderately and heavy at times here. But definitely getting into a more active pattern.

[Bubbler86]

Still snow here and some driveway stickage.  This qualifies as a snow storm now despite no roads.  Blue Ridge probably has 6-10" now. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

@mitchnick you are off your ensemble game.  A lot of the GEFS runs must have snow for the median to look like it does. 

There's an inch over central and southern PA at 42 hrs on the mean and 2" at 198 hrs. So a mean of 1" for next weekend potential is not great.

But I did just check for the first time this winter the AIEuro and it misses is pretty far south, further than the Ukie. So it's just wait and see until Monday when we have a little better consensus. 

[philliesmd]

 

[WmsptWx]

Just went for a drive to DG to pick up light bulbs. 322 is just wet. PennDot has done a spectacular job. I think if the ground were just a smidge colder going into this, this is probably a foot plus up here. This has been a great November event.

[mitchnick]

Just checked Icon at 120 hrs and it's colder, but stops early this run. Maybe a nod to Ukie and AIEuro, idk. That 50/50 Low is growing into a monster, so maybe it is a crusher. We'll see. 

[WmsptWx]

Heaviest rates of the day, right now. I think this is the fifth time I have said that, but every time it has been accurate. It just keeps coming.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's an inch over central and southern PA at 42 hrs on the mean and 2" at 198 hrs. So a mean of 1" for next weekend potential is not great.

But I did just check for the first time this winter the AIEuro and it misses is pretty far south, further than the Ukie. So it's just wait and see until Monday when we have a little better consensus. 

The precip maps on the GEFS looked better than that but again it is all a guising game of which members did what until you look member to member.   Several members could be 2' of rain. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

Heaviest rates of the day, right now. I think this is the fifth time I have said that, but every time it has been accurate. It just keeps coming.

 

[WmsptWx]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

 

Winter Storm Gaetz continues to deliver in West-Central Pennsylvania.

[DDweatherman]

41 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Any accumulations in carrol valley?

Insane honestly. Bottom of the neighborhood wet grass and rain snow mix. 2 miles from there at my house probably 1.5” at least and roads pretty snow covered.