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Central PA Autumn 2024


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22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

6z Euro went way warm for everybody.  Don't trust it yet, but trend hasn't been great since Wednesday's jackpot runs of Gfs and Euro.

The 6z Euro ends at day 6, so its tough to say where it would have ended up.

We don’t need much to go right to make this work for many of us.

IMG_7630.png

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z Euro ends at day 6, so its tough to say where it would have ended up.

We don’t need much to go right to make this work for many of us.

IMG_7630.png

Not to be a downer d*ck, but I  think I know where it's going comparing 0z 850's to 6z. But still plenty of time. 0z Ukie was colder than Euro fwiw, but slower with the evolution which may or not be bad.

trend-ecmwf_full-2024112206-f144.850th.conus.gif

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not to be a downer d*ck, but I  think I know where it's going comparing 0z 850's to 6z. But still plenty of time. 0z Ukie was colder than Euro fwiw, but slower with the evolution which may or not be bad.

trend-ecmwf_full-2024112206-f144.850th.conus.gif

Timing is everything it seems. Slower low and some of the features have = colder runs temp wise. This looked best as a Black Friday event, it has moved up 12/24 hours on guidance. 

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Timing is everything it seems. Slower low and some of the features have = colder runs temp wise. This looked best as a Black Friday event, it has moved up 12/24 hours on guidance. 

We're all definitely still in the game. Just gunna have to give it more time. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

May end up right, but they are basing it on the seasonal models that all missed the colder December now on the maps. So I'd toss it based on stale data. 

I like how you think.  You should be a lawyer in your next life. :P

Yeah, as there seems to be some correcting going on wrt ENSO, slight nina can be workable.  Just need AO to frequently peturb polar regions and keep that cold conveyor belt working.   

BTW win down here.  frosted roofs noted on way into office.  Perty.  Happy Friday all

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Just random flakes here. Visibility to Pigeon Hills (1,236' asl) 2 miles to my north hasn't even been reduced. Meh. Those downloading westerly winds are killing me up to this point. HRRR looks lousy outside of higher elevations too. I need a life.

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