Central PA Autumn 2024

[sauss06]

39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

at this range, plenty of waffling expected.  As suggested by a few, Op/Ens are seeing the storm, and the pattern is close enough to get it done, so that's good enough for now.  Lets just enjoy the chase, and hope for the best (well that's what I'm doin anyway).  

are you going up for bear? Friend said his Camp is expecting 6" Near Tioga/Lycoming line

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12z 3k........pretty good consensus

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

12z 3k........pretty good consensus

Gotta pay to play, elevation is the cost and probably no roads.    (Model discussion not forecast)

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

are you going up for bear? Friend said his Camp is expecting 6" Near Tioga/Lycoming line

Nope.  Never did it. yep, cabin in for a good shellacking as we sit at 2275'.

 

I go up next Friday.  Didnt put the plow on the UTV, and wondering if I may regret that.

[mitchnick]

Fyi, Rgem has never been on board with much accumulations outside of the Poconos and Somerset County/north and 12z is no better. At least we'll get to see if any particular model(s) have a hot or cold hand to start the season.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, Rgem has never been on board with much accumulations outside of the Poconos and Somerset County/north and 12z is no better. At least we'll get to see if any particular model(s) have a hot or cold hand to start the season.

It is really not a fan of the loop/fuji.   At one point it was forming the low to our NE and with very little hesitation, taking off into the Ocean. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, Rgem has never been on board with much accumulations outside of the Poconos and Somerset County/north and 12z is no better. At least we'll get to see if any particular model(s) have a hot or cold hand to start the season.

Hi res NAM, still has 2 qpf max's first one is poconos w/ SLP placement just puking snow on them, but as SLP goes retro on us, wraparound surely favors somerset/laurels.

My pal just bought a place in Terra Alta WV, and they think 12+ as he sits right up top.  He's not going to be down for this one, but i told him that i'd be inviting myself sometime when a good ol upslope event looms.  getting snowed in is fun stuff, and sorely missed.

[WmsptWx]

10:25 AM: SNOW 

[paweather]

31 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

10:25 AM: SNOW 

Light, Moderate, Heavy? 

[WmsptWx]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

Light, Moderate, Heavy? 

Moderate at times. Still mixing with rain.

[Bubbler86]

Sloppy southern snow (better north) to rain on GFS for Turkey.  Kind of a middle ground between the good and bad runs the last few days.

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sloppy southern snow (better north) to rain on GFS for Turkey.  Kind of a middle ground between the good and bad runs the last few days.

Not bad at all for right now. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Not bad at all for right now. 

Miller A but the Tue system leaves the boundary too far north compared to yesterday. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not bad at all for right now. 

Yep.  Where the boundary sets up follow Tuesday event will be what to watch.  Historically we seem to underperform in that regard, so that's the first fly in the ointment that we'll need to work through.  Fortunately some runs have it notably south, so nothing set in stone by any means.

 

edit, looks like this was just stated by Bub

[Bubbler86]

EB Nooners.  35 and light mix of rain and snow.

6Z GFS had an interesting change that missed for Dec 1.  Now the southern energy is gone at 12Z and the commonwealth gets an old fashioned clipper for the first day of Dec. 

[anthonyweather]

CMC is similar to the Gfs For next week

[canderson]

10 mins before noon - sunny and 50. Going to go blow some more leaves off the sidewalks that fell overnight. 

[canderson]

The river in HBG has fallen below 10 percent of its normal water flow. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

CMC is similar to the Gfs For next week

Meanwhile the Icon says get the Turkey Bowls lined up...sunny and near 50.    It is still not seeing any energy coming out of the Miss Valley. 

[sauss06]

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

10 mins before noon - sunny and 50. Going to go blow some more leaves off the sidewalks that fell overnight. 

just about all the leaves have fallen. 

isn't that a Steve Miller song?

[Itstrainingtime]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EB Nooners.  35 and light mix of rain and snow.

6Z GFS had an interesting change that missed for Dec 1.  Now the southern energy is gone at 12Z and the commonwealth gets an old fashioned clipper for the first day of Dec. 

Holy crap, it's sunny and 51 here!

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Holy crap, it's sunny and 51 here!

I wish it was 51 here as mid 30's is no Bueno.    Either be cold or not.

[Bubbler86]

[Voyager]

Sitting in the sun in Sunbury, but there's rain to my east and mixed rain and snow to my west.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

Sitting in the sun in Sunbury, but there's rain to my east and mixed rain and snow to my west.

Pillow ETA 1PM? 

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

just about all the leaves have fallen. 

isn't that a Steve Miller song?

Our maple still has close to half of its leaves. 

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Pillow ETA 1PM? 

Already went through there. Now it's homeward bound.

[paweather]

Nooner 47 and Partly Sunny. 

[Bubbler86]

This should start improving soon IF we get plentiful rain next week but D2 has now taken over the ITT Airport and snuck up into or beside Rou.

 

Northeast Drought Summary

Generally 1 to 3 inches fell on much of central and southern West Virginia, resulted in continued slow improvement. Several tenths of an inch fell to the north up the western tier of Pennsylvania, as well as limited areas in central Pennsylvania and adjacent Maryland. Elsewhere, essentially from north-central Maryland northward and eastward, little or no precipitation fell. A severe lack of precipitation has been in place since about August 19. From then through Nov. 19, 0.79 inch of rain has been reported in Trenton NJ (normal 11.58 inches, so about 7 percent of normal) and 1.09 inches has fallen on Philadelphia PA (normal 11.45 inches; less than 10 percent of normal). Very low amounts can be found for this period over a large part of the Northeast Region east of the mountains, and in some cases across the higher elevations as well. As a result, conditions continued to deteriorate in these areas. D3 expanded from part of southern New Jersey into adjacent southeastern Pennsylvania, central Delaware, and northeastern Maryland while a new area of D3 was introduced over much of eastern Massachusetts and some adjacent sites. Severe drought (D2) expanded to cover much of the East Coast Megalopolis and the western suburbs. Unusual brush fire activity and wildfire danger has been frequent for the past couple of months, and a few municipalities have mandatory water use restrictions in place, including the Trenton NJ Water Works and the Borough of Doylestown PA

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This should start improving soon IF we get plentiful rain next week but D2 has not taken over ITT and suck up into or beside Rou.

 

Northeast Drought Summary

Generally 1 to 3 inches fell on much of central and southern West Virginia, resulted in continued slow improvement. Several tenths of an inch fell to the north up the western tier of Pennsylvania, as well as limited areas in central Pennsylvania and adjacent Maryland. Elsewhere, essentially from north-central Maryland northward and eastward, little or no precipitation fell. A severe lack of precipitation has been in place since about August 19. From then through Nov. 19, 0.79 inch of rain has been reported in Trenton NJ (normal 11.58 inches, so about 7 percent of normal) and 1.09 inches has fallen on Philadelphia PA (normal 11.45 inches; less than 10 percent of normal). Very low amounts can be found for this period over a large part of the Northeast Region east of the mountains, and in some cases across the higher elevations as well. As a result, conditions continued to deteriorate in these areas. D3 expanded from part of southern New Jersey into adjacent southeastern Pennsylvania, central Delaware, and northeastern Maryland while a new area of D3 was introduced over much of eastern Massachusetts and some adjacent sites. Severe drought (D2) expanded to cover much of the East Coast Megalopolis and the western suburbs. Unusual brush fire activity and wildfire danger has been frequent for the past couple of months, and a few municipalities have mandatory water use restrictions in place, including the Trenton NJ Water Works and the Borough of Doylestown PA

What is that - maybe 50ish miles that separates D0 from D3 on SWPA? 

The D3 in Philly is warranted solely for their basketball team...