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Central PA Autumn 2024


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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have not heard that phrase since an episode of Breaking Bad.  Verbatim the GFS gets you good Turkey day.  More of a sloppy poppy down here.  

Very long duration storm as depicted with precip not ending until Friday am.

Long way to go, but something to monitor at this range.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
653 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066-220000-
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
653 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The first snow accumulation of the season is possible Thursday night
through Friday night. A wet, slushy snow accumulation ranging from a
coating to an inch or two is most likely at elevations near and
above 1500 feet and limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.

 

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Temp is down to 40ºF here with 0.43” of rainfall and a high gust as measured by my weather station at 33.3mph. 

Things definitely are still are track for this Thurs night/Friday event. Timing seems to be Friday morning to later Friday afternoon for the non upslope enhanced precipitation associated with the low itself.  All things considered computer models have been very consistent with each other the last few days with the evolution of this system. What I’ve noticed with the latest couple runs is the surface low is now being progged to backtrack all the way around the ring to make it into eastern PA, with the very deep 500mb low basically centered on PA for a time now. Basically this lends more support to potentially seeing a period of snow even into most/all of the Sus Valley now.. with elevation driving the level of success of any accums. The main part of this event as mentioned likely centers on Fri morning-afternoon as modelling has been progging the main wave of precip as a sort of spiral arm off the backtracking low pressure. 

It’s going to be interesting to see this unfold, as it’s a bit of a unique setup. The backtracking nature of this system lends to an actual example of a fujiwhara effect. 

image.thumb.png.de8805e427e5c4aeddfc3042ee8fbdee.png

Looking beyond, yes Thanksgiving/Thanksgiving Weekend has my attention. A storm had been showing up on op models in this timeframe in various forms more often than not on despite the range the last couple days even before today. So storm signal was already there, but they really upped the ante today. Ensembles are starting to see it a bit too. System progged for mid-week looks to be a key to maybe setting the boundary as well so we’ll see where things head the next few days with this. There should be plenty of cold on the playing field with the right setup. 

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