Central PA Autumn 2024

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gfs has another big snow, this run starting on Thanksgiving Day. Incredible cold to follow it.

Thus is crazy.... crazy good that is.

Let's keep the snows to shopping time!  T-Day is for family. 

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Let's keep the snows to shopping time!  T-Day is for family. 

I love my family, but I’ll take snow whenever I can get it, Lol!

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I love my family, but I’ll take snow whenever I can get it, Lol!

I have not heard that phrase since an episode of Breaking Bad.  Verbatim the GFS gets you good Turkey day.  More of a sloppy poppy down here.  

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have not heard that phrase since an episode of Breaking Bad.  Verbatim the GFS gets you good Turkey day.  More of a sloppy poppy down here.  

Very long duration storm as depicted with precip not ending until Friday am.

Long way to go, but something to monitor at this range.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Very long duration storm as depicted with precip not ending until Friday am.

Long way to go, but something to monitor at this range.

A loaded for bear run especially for early Dec.   Just missed twice (Miller A) in early Dec.  

[WmsptWx]

Getting nasty out this way 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I’ll be happy just seeing snowflakes. Low low expectations for the first event down this way.  

Completely agreed. 

[canderson]

Wind advisories up for gusts to 50 mph 

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Getting nasty out this way 

Just tell her you love her and everything will be fine.

[Blizzard of 93]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
653 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066-220000-
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
653 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The first snow accumulation of the season is possible Thursday night
through Friday night. A wet, slushy snow accumulation ranging from a
coating to an inch or two is most likely at elevations near and
above 1500 feet and limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.

 

[canderson]

The southern part of the line has absolutely bc collapse. Be lucky to get more than .2” it seems.  

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Just tell her you love her and everything will be fine.

I'm not a liar.

[Bubbler86]

Harrisburg Split? 

[mitchnick]

Pouring, windy, and thunder.

[Itstrainingtime]

Heavy rain in Maytown.

.23" in 8 minutes. Even heavier rain on the doorstep.

[canderson]

Up to .08” - all very light stuff 

[canderson]

As I say that, it’s now raining nicely now and looks like back building will provide some heavier rates relatively soon 

[anotherman]

Wind here is insane.

[canderson]

Anyone E of HBG will be tonight’s winner. 

[paweather]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Very long duration storm as depicted with precip not ending until Friday am.

Long way to go, but something to monitor at this range.

Superstorm 2024!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Been a minute since I’ve heard the sound of pounding rain on the siding, and what a glorious sound it is. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z NAMS for Friday -Kuchera

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Been a minute since I’ve heard the sound of pounding rain on the siding, and what a glorious sound it is. 

Up to .41" here now.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Up to .41" here now.

Looks like over a third of an inch here already and just had some thunder and lightning. #Winning 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z ICON for Friday 

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z NAMS for Friday -Kuchera

That hole directly over Harrisburg is freaking hilarious. It’s like it is watching tonight’s radar. 

[canderson]

Just hit .15” and very light rain ahead it seems - congrats to those E that hit the jackpot 

[anotherman]

.47 here.

[Itstrainingtime]

Steady rain and 53 degrees. Rainfall at .62" and counting.

[MAG5035]

Temp is down to 40ºF here with 0.43” of rainfall and a high gust as measured by my weather station at 33.3mph. 

Things definitely are still are track for this Thurs night/Friday event. Timing seems to be Friday morning to later Friday afternoon for the non upslope enhanced precipitation associated with the low itself.  All things considered computer models have been very consistent with each other the last few days with the evolution of this system. What I’ve noticed with the latest couple runs is the surface low is now being progged to backtrack all the way around the ring to make it into eastern PA, with the very deep 500mb low basically centered on PA for a time now. Basically this lends more support to potentially seeing a period of snow even into most/all of the Sus Valley now.. with elevation driving the level of success of any accums. The main part of this event as mentioned likely centers on Fri morning-afternoon as modelling has been progging the main wave of precip as a sort of spiral arm off the backtracking low pressure. 

It’s going to be interesting to see this unfold, as it’s a bit of a unique setup. The backtracking nature of this system lends to an actual example of a fujiwhara effect. 

Looking beyond, yes Thanksgiving/Thanksgiving Weekend has my attention. A storm had been showing up on op models in this timeframe in various forms more often than not on despite the range the last couple days even before today. So storm signal was already there, but they really upped the ante today. Ensembles are starting to see it a bit too. System progged for mid-week looks to be a key to maybe setting the boundary as well so we’ll see where things head the next few days with this. There should be plenty of cold on the playing field with the right setup.