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Central PA Autumn 2024


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20 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

With the collective blue balls of the forum as a whole, I wouldn't be shocked if the entire website goes into Storm Mode over what would otherwise just be "Friday."

How dare we get excited discussing first snow chatter on a sports  weather board.

 

;)

 

BTW i no longer give two sh!ts about sports talk, but when its time to chat it up a bit .....its time.....

and it may just be time.  :nerdsmiley:

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Just now, pasnownut said:

How dare we get excited discussing first snow chatter on a sports  weather board.

 

;)

 

BTW i no longer give two sh!ts about sports talk, but when its time to chat it up a bit .....its time.....

and it may just be time.  :nerdsmiley:

Well I didn't mean that to poo poo the excitement, but to illustrate how frustrating it's been for just about everyone. 

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2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Well I didn't mean that to poo poo the excitement, but to illustrate how frustrating it's been for just about everyone. 

all good, and it may just go to crap....so you may get the "nailed it" comments on Friday.

I'm feelin frisky today....can ya tell?

Yeah, we are all overdue...specially us southers.  

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'd throw my chips on northern tier (based solely on currently depicted evolution.  Screams 80 norther to me, but I've had hearing aids for 5 yrs....so theres that.

Definitely better up north, but models have been coming around to a decent round 2 down along the southern tier.

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MU at least talking about us southern people seeing our first flakes fly:

1/3 A major storm system will impact the Northeast late this week & drop accumulating snow in parts of the Catskills, Poconos & Apps, but residents across northern MD, southeastern PA & the LSV will be "on the outside looking in." We'll see no more than a few wet snowflakes..

2/3 .. on Friday. For mid-Atlantic snow-lovers, there are several issues with the storm. First, today's primary low is tracking into northern MN & southern Canada. As a result, there's a southerly component to the wind across nearly all of the eastern U.S. This leads to the..

3/3 .. next issue: no antecedent cold air mass in place. Instead, temps will be in the 50s/60s locally tomorrow & above freezing up to Hudson Bay. Finally, the coastal low is expected to develop near Long Island, leaving our region on its western (dry) side. SWD to come tomorrow.

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU at least talking about us southern people seeing our first flakes fly:

1/3 A major storm system will impact the Northeast late this week & drop accumulating snow in parts of the Catskills, Poconos & Apps, but residents across northern MD, southeastern PA & the LSV will be "on the outside looking in." We'll see no more than a few wet snowflakes..

2/3 .. on Friday. For mid-Atlantic snow-lovers, there are several issues with the storm. First, today's primary low is tracking into northern MN & southern Canada. As a result, there's a southerly component to the wind across nearly all of the eastern U.S. This leads to the..

3/3 .. next issue: no antecedent cold air mass in place. Instead, temps will be in the 50s/60s locally tomorrow & above freezing up to Hudson Bay. Finally, the coastal low is expected to develop near Long Island, leaving our region on its western (dry) side. SWD to come tomorrow.

Rumor has it that he copied that bolded part from several other discussions the last few years. 

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46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Saw that earlier - it's about time. I am beyond sick of #21. I'd rather lose out with no Embiid than win some games with him "playing". 

Sixers: supreme talent + zero heart = suckage

Flyers: marginal talent plus courageous effort = slightly less suckage. 

LOL

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Saw that earlier - it's about time. I am beyond sick of #21. I'd rather lose out with no Embiid than win some games with him "playing". 

Sixers: supreme talent + zero heart = suckage

Flyers: marginal talent plus courageous effort = slightly less suckage. 

LOL

You called it regardiing Embiid. He is slow usless and can't play. His days should be over in Philly to start a "new" process. 

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28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU at least talking about us southern people seeing our first flakes fly:

1/3 A major storm system will impact the Northeast late this week & drop accumulating snow in parts of the Catskills, Poconos & Apps, but residents across northern MD, southeastern PA & the LSV will be "on the outside looking in." We'll see no more than a few wet snowflakes..

2/3 .. on Friday. For mid-Atlantic snow-lovers, there are several issues with the storm. First, today's primary low is tracking into northern MN & southern Canada. As a result, there's a southerly component to the wind across nearly all of the eastern U.S. This leads to the..

/3 .. next issue: no antecedent cold air mass in place. Instead, temps will be in the 50s/60s locally tomorrow & above freezing up to Hudson Bay. Finally, the coastal low is expected to develop near Long Island, leaving our region on its western (dry) side. SWD to come tomorrow.

The key to this making for any kind of semi interesting wintry action off of the aforementioned mountains is how far the coastal low retrogrades back toward C-PA. There’s a finite window of opportunity with this. Low is progged to be stacked, so there will be a cold core centered on the low that could deliver barely a cold enough low level column for a period of snow in lower elevations. The 500mb trough/low itself is highly anomalous for this time of year. Given how marginal temps will be, the closer this backtracks toward C-PA the better the chance of that. Once the closed off low and associated cold core starts tracking away, we lose the marginally cold column temps at the lower levels.

Really initial thoughts for C-PA…

I don’t really expect much in the Sus Valley, but it could certainly mix for a time or even be a period of snow with any minor accums relegated to the ridges down there. Surface temps would figure to be the biggest issue of all the C-PA regions. Models have been progging a good bit of backlash precip, and that is the other part of the equation. Westerly component would make downsloping an issue off of the Laurels to some degree, especially down in the LSV.

Trying to size up this threat for the central counties.. as it could be quite variable. Anyone in the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor probably sees an all snow period Thurs night into Friday, but likely a highly elevational component as far as accums. I could see the Seven Mountains region and the first few major ridge lines past the Allegheny front seeing advisory amounts above a certain elevation (likely >1800ft). The valleys probably see more like a coating to an inch or so.

Definitely looking at an advisory type event in the Laurels/western Mountains and I expect headlines in Cambria/Somerset/possibly Clearfield, Elk, etc eventually. The highest Somerset elevations has a shot of seeing warning totals. Given progged track of the coastal this could be a snow bomb for the higher Poconos elevations as well. 

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