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Central PA Autumn 2024


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42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps cooler for Thanksgiving than the 0z run fwiw.

I am not trying to poo poo anything either, just not ready to get too giddy until the EC gives in for a true cold regime.    Some earlier EC runs had Thanksgiving cooler similar to the GFS/GEFS.   I am not a big EC fan at all but all too often, the American is too cold in the 10-15 day range. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not trying to poo poo anything either, just not ready to get too giddy until the EC gives in for a true cold regime.    Some earlier EC runs had Thanksgiving cooler similar to the GFS/GEFS.   I am not a big EC fan at all but all too often, the American is too cold in the 10-15 day range. 

 

 

The EC has changed not the same model GFS is consistent :D Blah blah blah I agree it’s best to wait until the day before Thanksgiving! 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

The EC has changed not the same model GFS is consistent :D Blah blah blah I agree it’s best to wait until the day before Thanksgiving! 

I am probably the least likely to say the EC will be right but I want a consensus.  LOL.    This look could be killer in January but not so sure in Nov.

image.thumb.png.bf02d412c285da006a9140e2ca7c6539.png

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42 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Lots of “potential” on that 18Z GFS. I kinda believe it.


.

not sure if any of us are believing anything yet, but regardless, its the first legit window of the season, and as stated earlier, it has some support.  That in itself is worth chatting about for us snow starved weenies. 

Evolution on the HH GFS verbatim is a double barrel/duel retrograding pair of ULL's so that in itself give me pause, and I'd bet little money on that being how it plays out, but that aside, the 540s are well south of what we've been used to of late, and see troughiness here in the east (transient/short lived until a potentially bigger trough delivers frozen turkey for all is a sight for sore eyes, not matter how it pans out.

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Umm...

Thursday Night
Rain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Umm...

Thursday Night
Rain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

I was just looking at CTP as well.

Here is the Marysville forecast…

Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 
Friday
A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

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Today will be our last sunny day of the work week. We stay mild with highs well into the 50's both today and tomorrow before a shift to chillier air, much needed significant rain and even some snow depending on elevation across the County by Friday. Rainfall amounts could reach near 1 inch across the area - which would be our wettest stretch since the event since the 1.48" of rain that fell between September 25th thru 28th.

image.png.a3e0949e87a8bdb70c51afee24e9dfff.pngimage.thumb.png.773974bffdef4e8c04e46c11eaeb006f.png

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Really starting to like the look for Turk week n beyond.  Morning GFS had too much coffee n went from nothing on 18z/0z to a nice coastal for turk day.  Way too much variablity to parse details, but the look from above is notably different/better than what we've been seeing for the last few months.  Personally, i'm just happy to see the changes...no matter if my yard is brown, or sprinkled w/ white.  Northers/westers should def see some white.  

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41 when I left the house.  All the 0z runs looked solid to me.  Love seeing an active pattern with some cold shots mixed in across the eastern CONUS during the extended period.  Can't ask for much more.  I doubt much materializes for us down here yet, but it will be nice seeing parts of PA get their first meaningful snowfalls.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

41 when I left the house.  All the 0z runs looked solid to me.  Love seeing an active pattern with some cold shots mixed in across the eastern CONUS during the extended period.  Can't ask for much more.  I doubt much materializes for us down here yet, but it will be nice seeing parts of PA get their first meaningful snowfalls.

I’ll be perfectly giddy for a snowglobe day. 

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47 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

41 when I left the house.  All the 0z runs looked solid to me.  Love seeing an active pattern with some cold shots mixed in across the eastern CONUS during the extended period.  Can't ask for much more.  I doubt much materializes for us down here yet, but it will be nice seeing parts of PA get their first meaningful snowfalls.

Yeah, its nice to have some events to keep an eye on, no matter what the final evolution is.  Troughing is trying here in the east and that in itself is a win....even if many of us still lose.  Us old folk are too wise to get caught up in last nights 18z and hold onto that skinny branch. :P

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