mitchnick Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Blizzard of 93 sleeping at the 12z Euro wheel. Tisk, tisk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Blizzard of 93 sleeping at the 12z Euro wheel. Tisk, tisk. Lol, I keep forgetting that the Euro comes out a little earlier & goes out 15 days now. I know it’s way out in time, but it’s nice to see the GFS & Euro have the same general idea at this long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Got sweaty dealing with leaves this morning / early afternoon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 17 Author Share Posted November 17 This has to be the longest 7-6 first half in NFL history. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I keep forgetting that the Euro comes out a little earlier & goes out 15 days now. I know it’s way out in time, but it’s nice to see the GFS & Euro have the same general idea at this long range. The early December time frame has ensemble pattern support from the GEFS & EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The early December time frame has ensemble pattern support from the GEFS & EPS. Geps ain't bad looking either. Has the highest ensemble snowfall of all 3 ensembls. It was the warmest of them only 2 runs ago too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This has to be the longest 7-6 first half in NFL history. Steel Ball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: This has to be the longest 7-6 first half in NFL history. You saw 4 50+ yard FGs. That’s pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 17 Author Share Posted November 17 1 hour ago, canderson said: You saw 4 50+ yard FGs. That’s pretty awesome. Ravens: 2 touchdowns Steelers: 0 touchdowns Tucker: 2 missed FGs Crazy game. AFC North at it's "finest" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 MDT high was 54 today. Normal high is 53. It was a very normal November weekend Weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Perhaps a little ice on Friday morning? Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The early December time frame has ensemble pattern support from the GEFS & EPS. To add to this, the EPO and WPO are both slated for a massive reversal to highly negative this week on the major ensembles… and staying negative out through the rest of their runs. That’s going with a generally negative NAO throughout as well. Only nitpick I really have is PNA staying mostly negative (GEFS eventually tries to get it positive).. which may weigh the cold air on the playing field in western Canada toward the western US at least initially. Either way, there is definitely a window of opportunity presenting itself from the last week of November into the opening week of December with what appears to be a decidedly more active pattern. I’m a bit late to the winter commentary in terms of thoughts on how things are going to go overall. Obviously the very highly negative PDO looms large with the gloomier aspects of our snow prospects. But what is not looming large is the ENSO. Forecasts in the spring for a moderate to strong Nina by this time of the year were much too robust and as of last week’s weekly ENSO report we still remain ENSO neutral (3.4 is at -0.3ºC). A stronger, established Nina coupled with the very -PDO state would have implied MJO spending a lot of time in the bad phases during the business end of winter. A neutral ENSO (or perhaps one that eventually transitions to a weak Nina) could present more favorability from the MJO realm.. at least at times. NAO blocking could be a wildcard too. 20-21 actually had the strong -PDO as well as a moderate Nina but that ended up being a decent winter here with the big hitters in mid December and beginning of Feb. There was a good bit of help from the NAO that winter. So I’ll acknowledge we likely have more of an uphill battle for getting at least an average winter, but I’m going remain cautiously optimistic with low expectations. I’ll go out on a limb to say I think we have more opportunities overall than last winter setup wise… but whether we capitalize on them is another story. Scoring something right out of the gate next month would certainly improve the prospects of respectable numbers for the winter. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 My point and click shows snow on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Low of 41. Some interesting weather ahead in the not-too-distant future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, WmsptWx said: My point and click shows snow on Thursday. Keep it out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Today will be our warmest day of the week with temperatures in the mid 60's for highs. We will turn slightly cooler tomorrow before a sharper change to colder by Wednesday night through the rest of the week. Our best chance of significant rain looks to arrive Wednesday night with as much as an inch in some lucky spots! Shower chances will continue through the end of the week, and we may even see some snow mixing in across some spots on Friday. Temperatures on Friday may not escape the 30's in higher locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 41. Some interesting weather ahead in the not-too-distant future. yeah, I noticed it on the GFS late last week and almost called it out, but was worried it was a fluke, as I've been focused on other things. Reading Bliz/Mag's post definitely raises ones eyebrow. Nice to see ENS runs showin the good stuff w/ troughing, and hoping that the neutral ENSO mutes the SER and we aren't full blown flamethrower here in the east. PDO is and likely will always be the main driver of the tellies (winter wise...when it really counts), but fortunately there's always a few other ways to get the goods....or get screwed. We've got screwed down pat, so here's to hoping we can find our way to some fun as the season approaches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 6z Eps likes the chances of most to at least see flakes in the air, if not accumulations, over the next 6 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 We've not had any weather to track since August so at least it's something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, canderson said: We've not had any weather to track since August so at least it's something. if nothing else, we are consistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z Eps likes the chances of most to at least see flakes in the air, if not accumulations, over the next 6 days. retrograding ULL noted on nooner NAM's says upslope potential is real for snow belt folks. While it is NAM's at range, they also have some global support, so its surely something to watch. Only thing I worry about, it that we've been in a pattern of seeing things dry up as they transition from mid term, to near term model wise. Fun to see all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 12z GFS still indicating a pattern change to more wintry weather starting this Thursday through the rest of the 2 week period. Kuchera snow map because why not. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Late nooners....66 and partly sunny. THV 67 or 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 49 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z GFS still indicating a pattern change to more wintry weather starting this Thursday through the rest of the 2 week period. Kuchera snow map because why not . I got the snowblower running! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 EC Ensemble not out yet for me but the EC Op is a disappointment after the interesting GFS and Canadian runs mentioned above. Near 70 the day before thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 18 Author Share Posted November 18 Back home from Yinzertown. AC is running hard. 68 in Maytown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Back home from Yinzertown. AC is running hard. 68 in Maytown. The question is, will today or wed be warmer this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Certainly the prospects for the first accumulating snowfall of the season look quite high for the higher elevations of western PA as well as the Poconos given progged evolution of that retrograding low. There’s some indications this could be a bit more prolific than a typical couple of inches at elevation type of first upslope snow event. There’s two aspects of this event.. first the initial passage of a very vigorous shortwave that will be accompanied with hopefully a period of rain and then a strong frontal passage that could turn the mountains to some snow at the end Wed night into Thur. The second aspect is the carving out of a highly anomalous 500mb trough and closed low Fri/Sat which will set up a longer duration period upslope/LES as well as potentially some precip associated with the low itself as it meanders/retrogrades just north of C-PA. Main model difference at the moment appears to be thermals. Euro is warmer on the column overall by a few degrees than the GFS, which could be the difference between the Laurels seeing a few inches that is more elevation dependent within that zone (above 2k for example) and an upslope event that delivers a much bigger event to most/all of the Laurels as well as some elevation dependent accumulating snows that expand into the central counties with first flakes that are seen in most of C-PA. More certain is further south in the elevations of WVA, which almost double up the elevations of most of the Laurels. That is going to be a big upslope snow event down there. It’ll be interesting to see what happens, this type of setup has been somewhat rare as of late. The Laurel’s region of PA has had some of the highest % departure from average snowfall of anywhere else in PA the last several winters and a big part of that is from a lack of these NW flow/upslope setups. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: EC Ensemble not out yet for me but the EC Op is a disappointment after the interesting GFS and Canadian runs mentioned above. Near 70 the day before thanksgiving. Eps cooler for Thanksgiving than the 0z run fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps cooler for Thanksgiving than the 0z run fwiw. Still in the 50's for a mean. Ugg. 10 higher than Gefs. Good for turkey bowl if dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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