Central PA Autumn 2024

[mahantango#1]

[mahantango#1]

Weather World

pdroonStes81fmg90c49hu507gm7hm218hl2m4ic701t54c66g74luhl75a0  · 

 

MORE AUTUMNAL AFFAIRS

Over the next 4 weeks, we think that there will be more opportunities for storms to find Pennsylvania, although on balance, staying on the dry side.

We also expect at least 18 of the next 28 days to be milder than average.

#pawx #FearlessForecast #ClimateWatch

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Low of 34 here but up to 37 now.   HGR never got below 36/37

[Blizzard of 93]

Looks like MDT got down to 32.

2 freezes in a row.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS agrees with DT.

This run shows a snow chance a few days before Thanksgiving.

[Blizzard of 93]

Thanksgiving day looks cold in the GFS as well this run.

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS agrees with DT.

This run shows a snow chance a few days before Thanksgiving.

Can I join in with your reindeer games?

[Blizzard of 93]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Can I join in with your reindeer games?

Lol, sure, as long as our Santa in here agrees.

[mahantango#1]

27 was the low overnight.

[Blizzard of 93]

30 was my Marysville low.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 31 and my low the previous night was 27, not 28.  Expecting meager rain totals over this way, be thrilled to see a tenth of an inch.  Mounting evidence of a real-deal cold airmass taking over for Thanksgiving week, would be much welcomed.  

[Bubbler86]

Northeast Drought Summary

Generally 1 to 2 inches fell on much of northern West Virginia and parts of western Pennsylvania as well as southern Maryland. Amounts were closer to 0.5 inch in most areas outside New England, with little or no precipitation reported there outside northernmost Maine. As a result, moisture deficits continued to increase in most of the Northeast Region, resulting in the expansion of extreme drought (D3) into southern New Jersey while severe drought (D2) enveloped northern New Jersey, part of eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York State including most of the New York City area, and western Massachusetts. Several locations across Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey had recorded a record number of consecutive days without precipitation (including Newark NJ, Trenton NJ, Philadelphia PA, Baltimore MD, and Washington DC) before light rains on November 10 ended the streaks of consecutive days without measurable precipitation at 5 to 6 weeks, but these amounts were light and had little impact on the dryness and drought found across most of the Region. Unusually high fire danger and numerous brush fires have been observed recently.

 

[Bubbler86]

@Mount Joy Snowman-Two week warning for your end of month call. Ha.  MDT currently stands at a mean temp of 53.4 degrees making it tied for the 10th warmest Nov 1-Nov 13th in MDT history.  With the warmish spell upcoming it would take an historical effort to get MDT to a BN Nov but the GFS and ensembles and to a slightly lesser degree the EC and ensembles offer hope of a late season cooler push to trim off some of the numbers. 

[ChescoWx]

Clouds increased overnight allowing temperatures to rise a bit as we moved toward dawn. These same clouds will cap high temperatures today to the upper 40's in most spots across Chester County. Showers will try to move in from the west....but will weaken due to strong high pressure to our northeast and our very dry air mass. The best chances for any showers will be in Southern Lancaster county and down in Maryland. We then see a gradual warming trend that will end abruptly by later next week. Much chillier air moves in at that time and should last right through the end of November.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Mount Joy Snowman-Two week warning for your end of month call. Ha.  MDT currently stands at a mean temp of 53.4 degrees making it tied for the 10th warmest Nov 1-Nov 13th in MDT history.  With the warmish spell upcoming it would take an historical effort to get MDT to a BN Nov but the GFS and ensembles and to a slightly lesser degree the EC and ensembles offer hope of a late season cooler push to trim off some of the numbers. 

Haha it's rare that I give a two week call, a recipe for egg on the face, albeit a fun endeavor.  I'll revisit this late next week.  You're right in that we should be mild for a while and then that final week chill prevents us from being anything near record-breaking, while hopefully allowing for the first snows across parts of PA.   

[Itstrainingtime]

18 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Itstrainingtime it is already mostly cloudy here.   May clear out for a time later but clouds are bulldogging ahead. 

Hey, sorry -  I was offline most of the day as my wife and I traveled to NYC to pick up family at JFK last evening. More and more I'm starting to believe in the Chester County microclimate...the temp on our way home last night ranged from 42 on Staten Island to as low as 25 at about 10:30pm (25!) near the Peter J. Camiel Service Plaza on the Turnpike. (northern Chester County) We finally got home just before midnight and it was 31 at home. As soon as we got on 222 south the temp was 30 or above the rest of the way home. It was only in the 20s in Chester County...and mid 20s at that...

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hey, sorry -  I was offline most of the day as my wife and I traveled to NYC to pick up family at JFK last evening. More and more I'm starting to believe in the Chester County microclimate...the temp on our way home last night ranged from 42 on Staten Island to as low as 25 at about 10:30pm (25!) near the Peter J. Camiel Service Plaza on the Turnpike. (northern Chester County) We finally got home just before midnight and it was 31 at home. As soon as we got on 222 south the temp was 30 or above the rest of the way home. It was only in the 20s in Chester County...and mid 20s at that...

We should take a collective approach this winter to see if that area gets more snow than others on storms that go from snow to ice to rain or vis versa. Would be interesting to track. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hey, sorry -  I was offline most of the day as my wife and I traveled to NYC to pick up family at JFK last evening. More and more I'm starting to believe in the Chester County microclimate...the temp on our way home last night ranged from 42 on Staten Island to as low as 25 at about 10:30pm (25!) near the Peter J. Camiel Service Plaza on the Turnpike. (northern Chester County) We finally got home just before midnight and it was 31 at home. As soon as we got on 222 south the temp was 30 or above the rest of the way home. It was only in the 20s in Chester County...and mid 20s at that...

I see you're another person who obsessively watches the car therm while driving.  Welcome to the club!  I've been the president for quite some time and recruitment is always a struggle 

But also to your point, and I think I mentioned this on here, I was struck but how much cooler it was in northwestern Chester County when I was out there recently for a family function.  A little micro climate around the Baron Hills area not far from Welsh Mountain and Honey Brook. 

[Bubbler86]

Partly Cloudy and 49 for noon.    Any rain is still a bit away. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha it's rare that I give a two week call, a recipe for egg on the face, albeit a fun endeavor.  I'll revisit this late next week.  You're right in that we should be mild for a while and then that final week chill prevents us from being anything near record-breaking, while hopefully allowing for the first snows across parts of PA.   

Sorry,  I thought you did Long Rangers before.  Was not baiting.   We are at such a large AN figure right now I thought it was a good time to ascertain if it stays large.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sorry,  I thought you did Long Rangers before.  Was not baiting.   We are at such a large AN figure right now I thought it was a good time to ascertain if it stays large.  

No need to be sorry.  Yes, I have done them before but typically like to wait until we're in that 7-10 day range.

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I see you're another person who obsessively watches the car therm while driving.  Welcome to the club!  I've been the president for quite some time and recruitment is always a struggle 

But also to your point, and I think I mentioned this on here, I was struck but how much cooler it was in northwestern Chester County when I was out there recently for a family function.  A little micro climate around the Baron Hills area not far from Welsh Mountain and Honey Brook. 

I remember your comment quite well. And this was not the first time that I've mentioned an anomaly coming through that area. It really is kind of cool...literally and figuratively.

I watch my car thermometer all the time. I obsess over my thermometer on good radiational cooling nights as well as times when I'm driving and wintry weather is approaching. 

My biggest weather obsession? Evenings when it starts clear and then clouds over in advance of a pending snowstorm. I want it to stay clear long enough for it to get cold. I know once it gets cloudy that the temp will level off or even start rising depending on the winds. Same thing applies to early mornings - I want clouds to move in FAST to cap the temp rise. So, the sky is my real obsession. Those little nuances mean a LOT for those of us who often ride the line temp-wise during winter storms. 

[canderson]

Late nooners - 46, breezy out of the east and pretty raw out. It’s great! 

[Bubbler86]

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I remember your comment quite well. And this was not the first time that I've mentioned an anomaly coming through that area. It really is kind of cool...literally and figuratively.

I watch my car thermometer all the time. I obsess over my thermometer on good radiational cooling nights as well as times when I'm driving and wintry weather is approaching. 

My biggest weather obsession? Evenings when it starts clear and then clouds over in advance of a pending snowstorm. I want it to stay clear long enough for it to get cold. I know once it gets cloudy that the temp will level off or even start rising depending on the winds. Same thing applies to early mornings - I want clouds to move in FAST to cap the temp rise. So, the sky is my real obsession. Those little nuances mean a LOT for those of us who often ride the line temp-wise during winter storms. 

I think car thems are underrated.  If you are moving they are usually quite accurate to within a degree.   I talk about my trips up and down from Blue Ridge Summit all the time because there is a 3-5 degree differences on some days. 

[Superstorm]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think car thems are underrated.  If you are moving they are usually quite accurate to within a degree.   I talk about my trips up and down from Blue Ridge Summit all the time because there is a 3-5 degree differences on some days. 

On some of those radiational cooling mornings, Ive seen it go from +15F to -15F driving through the hills and valleys of southern Lanco.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I remember your comment quite well. And this was not the first time that I've mentioned an anomaly coming through that area. It really is kind of cool...literally and figuratively.

I watch my car thermometer all the time. I obsess over my thermometer on good radiational cooling nights as well as times when I'm driving and wintry weather is approaching. 

My biggest weather obsession? Evenings when it starts clear and then clouds over in advance of a pending snowstorm. I want it to stay clear long enough for it to get cold. I know once it gets cloudy that the temp will level off or even start rising depending on the winds. Same thing applies to early mornings - I want clouds to move in FAST to cap the temp rise. So, the sky is my real obsession. Those little nuances mean a LOT for those of us who often ride the line temp-wise during winter storms. 

 

13 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

On some of those radiational cooling mornings, Ive seen it go from +15F to -15F driving through the hills and valleys of southern Lanco.

Exactly. 

There was a night after the Blizzard of 2016 that the temp at one point was 3 at my house and -8 at the airport 2/10s of a mile down the road. 

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think car thems are underrated.  If you are moving they are usually quite accurate to within a degree.   I talk about my trips up and down from Blue Ridge Summit all the time because there is a 3-5 degree differences on some days. 

100% agree - way more accurate than the average bank thermometer, even at night when they're not exposed to sun. 

[Bubbler86]

MDT up to 48.  They may need that rain to get here soon to avoid hitting 50.  Today may be their last day to avoid the record I mentioned yesterday.  50 in Rou. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Exactly. 

There was a night after the Blizzard of 2016 that the temp at one point was 3 at my house and -8 at the airport 2/10s of a mile down the road. 

I love the variance that can be brought about by snow-covered ground on calm clear nights, radiational cooling on steroids. 

[WmsptWx]

Forty-two and dark here. I really thought I'd see the first flakes of the season today. Not to be.