Voyager Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I was going to joke about that but Googled First and saw quite a few occurrences where Trop Storms affected Arizona and Phoenix. A surprise to me. Hurricane Nora caused a dam to fail in Phoenix in 1997. I think that dam fail was west of Phoenix. I lived there the first time for that one. It was forecasted to track almost directly over Phoenix which was supposed to get the worst of the storm, but it tracked from Yuma up the Colorado River as a tropical storm to Needles CA instead, where it was downgraded to a depression. We still got some rain, but not the 5-8 inch amounts that were originally forecast for the Metro area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: The good thing is...people are actually leaving. Helene was horrible. Might be one of the few storms that the results were worse than anticipated. It's hard to comprehend from our area just how devastating things are to our south. Bright (extremely relatively speaking) side in it? Because of how graphically bad as Helene was/is, maybe that will influence more people to take action going forward. I have to wonder if the mass exodus is in part due to how ominous Milton has become, and also in part to how fresh the catastrophe that Helene was. When they got us all to leave for Irma they showed animations of what happens when your garage door goes during a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The good thing is...people are actually leaving. Helene was horrible. Might be one of the few storms that the results were worse than anticipated. It's hard to comprehend from our area just how devastating things are to our south. Bright (extremely relatively speaking) side in it? Because of how graphically bad as Helene was/is, maybe that will influence more people to take action going forward. I have to wonder if the mass exodus is in part due to how ominous Milton has become, and also in part to how fresh the catastrophe that Helene was. Helene was horrible ripped towns apart . I have a cousin that had to relocate from Asheville. Just sickening! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 hours ago, sauss06 said: I had 54 when i left the gym at 6am. bet you had shorts n t shirt on, even being down in weight. Keep up the good work pal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 hours ago, canderson said: Amen. Although at some point a Cat 4 or 5 will come up the bay and do very serious damage in the LSV. hope you are wrong pal.... I've said it a 100 times here, just not a fan of dangerous storms because of widespread catastrophic damage and major loss of life/property. at least with the storm that has the letter B (winter version), peeps can stay home and be safe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, Superstorm said: Milton Berle . shit...i stand corrected. Dont know him, but yep...i've heard of him. thx for the reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Milton Bradley ok.... my memory is failing a tad... added to list. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The good thing is...people are actually leaving. Helene was h. Might be one of the few storms that the results were worse than anticipated. It's hard to comprehend from our area just how devastating things are to our south. Bright (extremely relatively speaking) side in it? Because of how graphically bad as Helene was/is, maybe that has/will influence more people to take action going forward. I have to wonder if the mass exodus is in part due to how ominous Milton has become, and also in part to how fresh the catastrophe that Helene was. sad part is that most states to the north are likely not capable of helping much as carolinas and GA are still reeling from Helene. Might make it extra challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: hope you are wrong pal.... I've said it a 100 times here, just not a fan of dangerous storms because of widespread catastrophic damage and major loss of life/property. at least with the storm that has the letter B (winter version), peeps can stay home and be safe. Absolutely agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The good thing is...people are actually leaving. Helene was horrible. Might be one of the few storms that the results were worse than anticipated. It's hard to comprehend from our area just how devastating things are to our south. Bright (extremely relatively speaking) side in it? Because of how graphically bad as Helene was/is, maybe that has/will influence more people to take action going forward. I have to wonder if the mass exodus is in part due to how ominous Milton has become, and also in part to how fresh the catastrophe that Helene was. My co-worker flew down to Tampa to get his mom. She was refusing to leave.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 IR presentation is scary. Definitely Cat 5 now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 13 minutes ago, Superstorm said: My co-worker flew down to Tampa to get his mom. She was refusing to leave. . Too many people get tied up in models and watching tracks and almost every single major 'Cane goes off the forecast at the end. I do not blame anyone from Steinhatchee down to Marco Island from moving inland and not sure why that mom would not do the same. Would you want to be on the Keys now trusting meteorology? I keep referring back to Irma since it was one I lived through and 12-24 hours before landfall, everyone was sure TPA was toast and would be destroyed. It's made final landfall almost 200 miles away in Marco Island with minimal issues, outside power, in the very areas that were doomed 24 hours prior. The situation on the East Coast ended up being worse than what Tampa saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Waddams V again. 918 mb, 165 mph and likely to increase in minutes as a recon flight is in the storm. I am category six exhausted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Waddams V again. 918 mb, 165 mph and likely to increase in minutes as a recon flight is in the storm. I am category six exhausted. Spag models go south, 18Z Icon ticks north. The Nam has done well with tropical lately and it says an LBK to St Pete hit it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just got a 902 mb reading from the recon, 183 mph at flight level. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Just got a 902 mb reading from the recon, 183 mph at flight level. This thing is getting so strong that it's offsetting the anticipated weakening to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: This thing is getting so strong that it's offsetting the anticipated weakening to come. Yeah if this thing continues to strengthen until the overnight and gets to say 190 mph, it may run out of time to get down below 145 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This thing is getting so strong that it's offsetting the anticipated weakening to come. The landfall keeps getting backed up a bit though. Changes aplenty. Still 36+ hours away now on some. The Euro had Thursday (edit) 7AM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The landfall keeps getting back up a bit though. Changes aplenty. Still 36+ hours away now. The Euro had Thursday (edit) 7AM! I admittedly know nothing about tropical systems. I did read commentary in the lead in to Helene that any storm, regardless of intensity is potentially less damaging if it's in a weakening state upon approach vs. a storm that's intensifying at landfall. No idea if a storm that was 185 mph that hits the coast at 145 mph is any better than a 100 mph storm that reaches 120 mph at landfall. I guess at some point the pendulum flips in regards to intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 905 mb from Recon. The 902 was extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It does look like the eastward/southward march Waddams was on earlier has deviated back to the north. For a while this afternoon it looked like the storm had as good a chance of smacking Bahia Honda in Cuba as it did Sarasota. The downside to the southward march is the wind shear they're predicting to come into play may not be as prevalent, meaning the real weakening factor would be limited to a potential recycling. Tampa is looking better today. Fort Myers maybe not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I admittedly know nothing about tropical systems. I did read commentary in the lead in to Helene that any storm, regardless of intensity is potentially less damaging if it's in a weakening state upon approach vs. a storm that's intensifying at landfall. No idea if a storm that was 185 mph that hits the coast at 145 mph is any better than a 100 mph storm that reaches 120 mph at landfall. I guess at some point the pendulum flips in regards to intensity. I am not a trop expert either, just following the model trends. I do know that once it builds up a surge in the ocean, it takes a long time for that to wind down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 13 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: It does look like the eastward/southward march Waddams was on earlier has deviated back to the north. For a while this afternoon it looked like the storm had as good a chance of smacking Bahia Honda in Cuba as it did Sarasota. The downside to the southward march is the wind shear they're predicting to come into play may not be as prevalent, meaning the real weakening factor would be limited to a potential recycling. Tampa is looking better today. Fort Myers maybe not so much. 18Z GFS slows down landfall as well and takes it almost directly over Tampa. But it relies on a sharp East turn to do it. Landfall not until 3AMish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 18Z RRFS, the new kid in town, has a St Pete Landfall (not great for TPA) Thursday 3-5AMish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just saw Daytona now has Mandatory evacs for any area east of the Intercoastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I admittedly know nothing about tropical systems. I did read commentary in the lead in to Helene that any storm, regardless of intensity is potentially less damaging if it's in a weakening state upon approach vs. a storm that's intensifying at landfall. No idea if a storm that was 185 mph that hits the coast at 145 mph is any better than a 100 mph storm that reaches 120 mph at landfall. I guess at some point the pendulum flips in regards to intensity. Look at IKE for storm surge. . Rita which got down to 895mb was a 30. This is now forecast to be 72. I have no idea what hurricane Katrina was. It's almost best to look to typhoons for similar readingsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just saw Daytona now has Mandatory evacs for any area east of the Intercoastal. Our son in law's parents live right up the road in Palm Coast. Just off 95 on the inland side. (I95 splits Palm Coast in half) We were just talking last week about how flood insurance is double on the ocean side of 95 compared to the west side. That absolutely dictated where they bought years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Our son in law's parents live right up the road in Palm Coast. Just off 95 on the inland side. (I95 splits Palm Coast in half) We were just talking last week about how flood insurance is double on the ocean side of 95 compared to the west side. That absolutely dictated where they bought years ago. A lot of those Ocean side places may eventually not be able to get flood insurance even at some of the crazy 40K per year rates that some people pay now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 A lot of those Ocean side places may eventually not be able to get flood insurance even at some of the crazy 40K per year rates that some people pay now. What is the property value of someone paying 40k a year?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, Jns2183 said: What is the property value of someone paying 40k a year? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I have heard lots of stories of that so not sure of specifics but not nearly what you would think it would be. Getting your house on stilts is one way to lower that. The companies are basically trying to price it to where no one chooses it. In Ocala flood insurance can cost a good 3-5K a year with the entire policy being 6-9K. For a 300-500K house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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