Central PA Autumn 2024

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Waddams IV. 150 mph. If this thing doesn't hit the Yucatan, 200 mph is happening.

And it was not even modeled 3-4 days ago.   Though the potential has been there for a week or more. 

[WmsptWx]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And it was not even modeled 3-4 days ago.   Though the potential has been there for a week or more. 

Right. GFS had this thing sniffed out just after Helene but I think it vanished for a bit. There's an interesting little bit on the tropical thread in that the trend over the last few years has been to continue to intensify up until landfall. This one is being modeled to get a little bigger and throw the wind field outward while losing steam as we approach. I do fear for what may happen if that doesn't happen. 

Or I guess even if it does but not to the extent currently progged. Suppose this bastard hits 205-215 mph max sustained but weakens to something like... 165 mph max. 

What a disaster.

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Right. GFS had this thing sniffed out just after Helene but I think it vanished for a bit. There's an interesting little bit on the tropical thread in that the trend over the last few years has been to continue to intensify up until landfall. This one is being modeled to get a little bigger and throw the wind field outward while losing steam as we approach. I do fear for what may happen if that doesn't happen. 

Or I guess even if it does but not to the extent currently progged. Suppose this bastard hits 205-215 mph max sustained but weakens to something like... 165 mph max. 

What a disaster.

Yea, the GFS has a small/weak tropical storm for several days then it leveled down into a flooding 1–2-foot rain situation before starting to ramp back up the last 3-4 days.  Not going to state what might happen until we get to later Tuesday indeed lots of bad possibilities right now. 

[mitchnick]

Gfs first version before losing it was a Helene type track.

[canderson]

Sarasota fam in the crosshairs. They have considerable damage from Helene already. 

[WmsptWx]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gfs first version before losing it was a Helene type track.

Thats what I remember seeing on YT during a live stream from an Atlanta network affiliate. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

Thats what I remember seeing on YT during a live stream from an Atlanta network affiliate. 

192hrs from 6z on 9/30.

[Itstrainingtime]

This bust of a hurricane season is quickly becoming less...busty. 

[pasnownut]

11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Listen, you & some others have run some things into the ground on here over the years. Let me have this one please.

Please don’t compare me with that dude!

I won’t stop with this… until snow map season starts, Lol!

Buddy boy, as we grow older...we learn when to pick battles, and when to die on the hill.  Me thinks there can be extreme stances on both sides of this particular "hill".  

If one looks at the qpf distribution and timeframe, it really doesnt lend a hand in your argument IMO.  OTOH, yes we live in a polarized era in many ways, and I'm sure that many alarmist do whatever they can to "influence" the perceived weather.  

The more meaningful assessment IMO is how we seem to do the "extremes" better than ever.  Dry for days and days, to rain for days and days....

Soil water content is a better indicator to who gets the D label and who doesnt.  Much of what we recieved has been in relatively short timespans, and was likely runoff, and not absorbed, and when we did get long duration...some of us got .05 in a few day total (KLNS data).

While i havent looked, I'm thinking it still is on the low side in the areas shown on the drought map.  

 

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This bust of a hurricane season is quickly becoming less...busty. 

Or more busty depending on your use of the word lol

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Or more busty depending on your use of the word lol

I chose my words very carefully. 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

.08 rain overnight. 

.01 for me.  Car topper.

 

no matter how my grass looks... I'm just gonna say it....I need rain.  If memory serves, .05 in like an 8 day total for me in northern lanco.  

[mitchnick]

.10" from last night

[pasnownut]

49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This bust of a hurricane season is quickly becoming less...busty. 

but if we use the drought argument.....natsomuch.

If we are grading by bust size, I'll give it an A+, B- when triple D's were the early call. (thinking cup size here for visual comparison).

 

 

[paweather]

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

but if we use blizz's drought argument.....natsomuch.

If we are grading by bust size, I'll give it an A+, B- when triple D's were the early call. (thinking cup size here for visual comparison).

 

 

Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives? 

[WmsptWx]

Just now, paweather said:

Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives? 

Or as my old man used to call it, "Douchebags Go to Lunch."

[WmsptWx]

Waddams 155 at 11. 

The Office Space jokes stop the minute DeSantis orders Clearwater to GIT.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Waddams 155 at 11. 

The Office Space jokes stop the minute DeSantis orders Clearwater to GIT.

Desantis already declared that he expects Clearwater to come out if this with a yearly surplus of precip.  

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Or as my old man used to call it, "Douchebags Go to Lunch."

I love food, and that show.  I've heard some less than great things about Guy, but I'd toss back a pint w/ him anyday...and be my own judge.

[WmsptWx]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Desantis already declared that he expects Clearwater to come out if this with a yearly surplus of precip.  

But will there still be a farcical D0 destination?

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

But will there still be a farcical D0 destination?

Speaking of D0, MDT has only received a little under 1/2" of precip since USGS painted their last map.  That does not bode well for a removal.   It is 1/2 of what normal would be. 

[WmsptWx]

Early Nooners: 58°F and cloudy. Sun keeps popping in and out.

[WmsptWx]

WADDAMS FIVE. 160 MPH.

[Jns2183]

This is the death storm to the Florida real estate market if it sends a massive surge up Tampa Bay then whacks Orlando

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[ChescoWx]

A little tired today as I was at last night's game. Go Philies!!

Weather wise here in Chesco - a dry week (as usual) and turning chillier than normal for early October with even some 30's possible for lows by Friday morning. Temps closer to normal by next weekend.

[canderson]

Nooners - 70 and breezy 

[WmsptWx]

16 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

This is the death storm to the Florida real estate market if it sends a massive surge up Tampa Bay then whacks Orlando

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah but it makes Sea World an appropriate name. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Yeah but it makes Sea World an appropriate name. 

How about Busch Gardens? 

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How about Busch Gardens? 

I always forget about Busch Gardens.

[WmsptWx]

The Artist Formerly Known as "Waddams," is now at 175 mph, 911 mb.