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Pittsburgh, PA Fall 2024 Thread


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This blows. Into November, get one sort of fall like day then back to 80 again. I had to run the AC last night because it was 73 degrees at 11.

 

freaking awful. I remember years we had accumulating lake effect by this point,  now it’s basically early June or mid September. 

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This run of warm weather has been incredible but I am starting to get concerned that there is not even a hint of cold in fantasy land. I don't mind if the rest of November is warm but you'd think at some point this has to break in the other direction at least temporarily?

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I believe it was 2010 when we had a rather warm November, and then as soon as December hit, it felt like winter had arrived.  I don't know if we're in store for a repeat of that pattern, which ended up being a strong La Nina episode following an El Nino.  Right now we're in a very mild negative period which is technically neutral (-0.2), but a La Nina of the weaker type is slightly favored.  This could end up being a net-neutral winter, however.

Looking back for any kind of correlation, I found 10 net neutral winters since 1990.  The average snowfall over those neutral periods was 44.8, which is slightly above our 30-year average.

Half of the ten were below 30" of snow while the other half were above 50" of snow.  Kind of an interesting dynamic there.  Three were above 60" (1993, 1994, and 2014).

Of those neutrals, only three followed an El Nino.  Two of those three were 1993 and 2004, with 72.1" and 54.2" of snow, respectively.  The third was 2020 with 22.4" of snow.

If it ends up being a true weak La Nina, well, the snowfall history isn't quite as favorable, but it is a smaller sample size, too.  We've only had five La Ninas that finished above a -1.0 threshold.  None of those five involved snowfall higher than our 30-year average, and only one was right around the number (2009 with 41" of snow total).  The three were in the 30s, which wouldn't be bad given our recent history, but the last was 2023 and that was a paltry year for snow, still fresh in our minds (17.6").

To be clear, I don't know if this means anything, but it's interesting to check the data and try to include that history into a prediction for the winter.  We fully expect a warm winter, in general, so predicting under the average is probably a safer bet, regardless.

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Through the first third of November, PIT is running a whopping 10.2F degree surplus relative to the normal. Needless to say, we are building a considerable separation between the prior warmest years in the threaded record. Now, 0.6F warmer than 1880 and 0.9F warmer than 1921. 1921 is the current warmest year at 55.4F. In 1921, there was an impressive cold snap in mid-November, then the second half of the month was largely a "blowtorch." December saw fairly typical temperatures. 1880 was bitterly cold in the second half of November and the entire month of December, so it quickly plummets in the rankings from here on out. Almost looks like a lock for warmest year on record, and we could do it by more than 1F over 1921 if December is mild.

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On 10/29/2024 at 12:37 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

KDKA going with 28 inches of snow this year. 

Happened to tune into WTAE yesterday and saw their winter forecast, going to 32 inches. Similar theme, above average temperatures, below normal snowfall, but should be enough "cold" shots to eek out a snowier winter than last year. That's not saying much though, it will be tough to beat 16 inches for the season. Reading some others thoughts there is at least a potential this winter isn't a total fail if some things break right despite the overall above average theme for temperatures. 

It does look like maybe first shot at accumulating snow (thinking your typical coating to an inch overnight type stuff) Thanksgiving week with -NAO and a trough in the east if this look holds.

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