Rd9108 Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 FYI whoever made the last thread for winter where we actually received snow should start the winter thread when it comes time. That's means definitely not you meatwad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 29 Author Share Posted October 29 KDKA going with 28 inches of snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 30 Author Share Posted October 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 30 Author Share Posted October 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 30 Author Share Posted October 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heathaze Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Felt more like August 30th last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Hottest Halloween ever today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Hottest Halloween ever today. We needed the front to move through one day earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 31 Author Share Posted October 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 This blows. Into November, get one sort of fall like day then back to 80 again. I had to run the AC last night because it was 73 degrees at 11. freaking awful. I remember years we had accumulating lake effect by this point, now it’s basically early June or mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 5 Author Share Posted November 5 More pictures from the Youghiogeny River Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 This run of warm weather has been incredible but I am starting to get concerned that there is not even a hint of cold in fantasy land. I don't mind if the rest of November is warm but you'd think at some point this has to break in the other direction at least temporarily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 I believe it was 2010 when we had a rather warm November, and then as soon as December hit, it felt like winter had arrived. I don't know if we're in store for a repeat of that pattern, which ended up being a strong La Nina episode following an El Nino. Right now we're in a very mild negative period which is technically neutral (-0.2), but a La Nina of the weaker type is slightly favored. This could end up being a net-neutral winter, however. Looking back for any kind of correlation, I found 10 net neutral winters since 1990. The average snowfall over those neutral periods was 44.8, which is slightly above our 30-year average. Half of the ten were below 30" of snow while the other half were above 50" of snow. Kind of an interesting dynamic there. Three were above 60" (1993, 1994, and 2014). Of those neutrals, only three followed an El Nino. Two of those three were 1993 and 2004, with 72.1" and 54.2" of snow, respectively. The third was 2020 with 22.4" of snow. If it ends up being a true weak La Nina, well, the snowfall history isn't quite as favorable, but it is a smaller sample size, too. We've only had five La Ninas that finished above a -1.0 threshold. None of those five involved snowfall higher than our 30-year average, and only one was right around the number (2009 with 41" of snow total). The three were in the 30s, which wouldn't be bad given our recent history, but the last was 2023 and that was a paltry year for snow, still fresh in our minds (17.6"). To be clear, I don't know if this means anything, but it's interesting to check the data and try to include that history into a prediction for the winter. We fully expect a warm winter, in general, so predicting under the average is probably a safer bet, regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 5 Author Share Posted November 5 Record high of 81F today. Also matches 1948 for the latest 80F+ reading on record at Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Looks like a fairly average week weather wise coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 11 Author Share Posted November 11 Through the first third of November, PIT is running a whopping 10.2F degree surplus relative to the normal. Needless to say, we are building a considerable separation between the prior warmest years in the threaded record. Now, 0.6F warmer than 1880 and 0.9F warmer than 1921. 1921 is the current warmest year at 55.4F. In 1921, there was an impressive cold snap in mid-November, then the second half of the month was largely a "blowtorch." December saw fairly typical temperatures. 1880 was bitterly cold in the second half of November and the entire month of December, so it quickly plummets in the rankings from here on out. Almost looks like a lock for warmest year on record, and we could do it by more than 1F over 1921 if December is mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Looking forward to the more seasonal temps and a nice indoor fire tomorrow evening! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 On 10/29/2024 at 12:37 PM, TheClimateChanger said: KDKA going with 28 inches of snow this year. Happened to tune into WTAE yesterday and saw their winter forecast, going to 32 inches. Similar theme, above average temperatures, below normal snowfall, but should be enough "cold" shots to eek out a snowier winter than last year. That's not saying much though, it will be tough to beat 16 inches for the season. Reading some others thoughts there is at least a potential this winter isn't a total fail if some things break right despite the overall above average theme for temperatures. It does look like maybe first shot at accumulating snow (thinking your typical coating to an inch overnight type stuff) Thanksgiving week with -NAO and a trough in the east if this look holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 On 11/11/2024 at 4:41 PM, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Looking forward to the more seasonal temps and a nice indoor fire tomorrow evening! Could be a decent LES pattern setting up, not as exciting for us lowlanders (lol) but typical upslope areas like yourself might be looking good in another week or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 On 11/14/2024 at 7:24 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Could be a decent LES pattern setting up, not as exciting for us lowlanders (lol) but typical upslope areas like yourself might be looking good in another week or so. Slight risk of heavy snow the week of 11/21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Atleast the bar is low for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Might have a little something in the air in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted Saturday at 04:17 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:17 AM Interesting. My phone has 5.2 inches of snow for Pittsburgh on Thursday. Also, another 2.15 inches of snow on Friday (not shown). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM Not sure how they calculate that, lol. At most I'd imagine a coating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM 10 hours ago, Ahoff said: Not sure how they calculate that, lol. At most I'd imagine a coating. Probably rip and read from a GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted Sunday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:20 PM Regardless of what happens later this week, hopefully the source regions north of the border, can start building a permanent snowpack. Last season a few decent setups had insufficient cold air to draw from. The way our winters have been lately, we can’t afford the waste any potential storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted Monday at 01:41 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:41 PM So far every day this month has been at least 1F above normal at PIT. Looks like that streak will end Thursday, and we may string together several below normal days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted Monday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:48 PM Euro is now showing the solution the GFS and CMC had last week. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Monday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 PM 43 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Euro is now showing the solution the GFS and CMC had last week. lol Never will happen but imagine that this happens in November after the abysmal winter we had last year Obviously not 10/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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