TheClimateChanger Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Figured I'd get a fall thread going, now that it's September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 After reviewing the first several posts of the Fall 2023 thread, I can say we are off to a much more fall-like start to September than last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Looks like another dry stretch coming up, barring any tropical impacts possibly 7 days. Hopefully it doesn't have any impact on fall foliage in the area, but maybe earlier and less colorful if the trend persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 21 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like another dry stretch coming up, barring any tropical impacts possibly 7 days. Hopefully it doesn't have any impact on fall foliage in the area, but maybe earlier and less colorful if the trend persists. Was looking at that this morning. There have been entire GFS runs that show exactly zero qpf through 384. Not just a one off, it seems every other run for the past few days has depicted this. I think the over is a safe bet in this scenario, but model runs depicting zero precip for 16 days are incredibly rare around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Interesting to note that of the 10 streaks of 21+ days of zero measurable precip that Pittsburgh has recorded, 9 of them happened at least partially in fall. The only exception happened in May/June 2023. So fall months can be incredibly dry around here, but there’s always tropical remnants to give us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 The highlighted is not a date you want to see in the 8-14 day analogs if you like fall weather: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 PIT is 1.6F below normal through the 12th, but the next several days should get us back to normal [or above]. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from yesterday look like an inferno for most of the eastern US, so we should be well-positioned for another warmer than normal month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: PIT is 1.6F below normal through the 12th, but the next several days should get us back to normal [or above]. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from yesterday look like an inferno for most of the eastern US, so we should be well-positioned for another warmer than normal month. I wonder what the record is for most consecutive above normal months at PIT. I know we had that stretch from February 2016-July 2017 where we had 18 straight above normal months, though a few of those would now be considered below normal according to the 1991-2020 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 Interesting that 81% of GEFS members have measurable rain Wednesday, but the NWS is rolling with a dry forecast for the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 Weather app on phone looks average, temp wise for next week, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 14 Author Share Posted September 14 000SXUS71 KPBZ 142151RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0549 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 2005.$$MILCAREK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 15 Author Share Posted September 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 On 9/14/2024 at 9:58 AM, TimB said: Interesting that 81% of GEFS members have measurable rain Wednesday, but the NWS is rolling with a dry forecast for the entire period. Latest Op GFS not too enthused on the rainfall this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted Saturday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:49 PM 89 today, Warmer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted Tuesday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:38 PM We think September going to be right at average or another above month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted yesterday at 01:22 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:22 PM On 9/24/2024 at 4:38 PM, ChalkHillSnowNut said: We think September going to be right at average or another above month? September? Considering its 3.5F above normal, it's going to be closer to +5F than normal. Or was this meant to ask about the upcoming October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM On 9/14/2024 at 11:21 AM, Ahoff said: Weather app on phone looks average, temp wise for next week, at least for now. I don't know what the weather app was looking at. There hasn't been a day within 5F of normal since the 11th. Looks like we may see a few seasonable or somewhat cooler than normal days as we head into early October, behind Helene's remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted yesterday at 01:27 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:27 PM 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: September? Considering its 3.5F above normal, it's going to be closer to +5F than normal. Or was this meant to ask about the upcoming October? If October, the Euro AIFS has a pretty warm looking pattern across the eastern U.S. after a cooler start to the month behind Helene. CPC agrees with increased odds of warmer than normal almost coast to coast. Not sure it will be a blowtorch, but I think odds are certainly in favor of another at least somewhat warmer than normal month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted yesterday at 01:37 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:37 PM Also haven't looked at this in a few weeks, but PIT is now just 0.1F below the warmest YTD in the threaded record. Obviously, the older records are from the city station. And the 19th century records seem to have had some sort of warm bias on top of that, particularly in the warm season. But despite any biases, right in the mix for the record warm annual mean temperature. 1880 was not warm for the last 3 months of year so it falls off pretty rapidly. 1921 is actually the current record year in the threaded record, and 2024 has been 0.2F above that year to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted yesterday at 01:38 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:38 PM 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Also haven't looked at this in a few weeks, but PIT is now just 0.1F below the warmest YTD in the threaded record. Obviously, the older records are from the city station. And the 19th century records seem to have had some sort of warm bias on top of that, particularly in the warm season. But despite any biases, right in the mix for the record warm annual mean temperature. 1880 was not warm for the last 3 months of year so it falls off pretty rapidly. 1921 is actually the current record year in the threaded record, and 2024 has been 0.2F above that year to date. And actually 1921 was not particularly warm the last three months of the year. Compared to the current 1991-2020 mean at PIT, October was +0.7F, November +2.1F, and December +0.3F. So only a bit above normal. A very warm October could almost seal up the warmest year on record, barring a major cold outbreak in November or December [because at that point November & December could probably run even slightly below normal and 2024 would still wind up #1]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM 39 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: September? Considering its 3.5F above normal, it's going to be closer to +5F than normal. Or was this meant to ask about the upcoming October? Like in previous months someone had the data about the current months (July-August)being around the 2nd-4th hottest months ever for greater Pitt -wondering what September looks like with that same data someone had posted for the previous months-trying to see if the trend is continuing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted yesterday at 02:08 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:08 PM 5 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Like in previous months someone had the data about the current months (July-August)being around the 2nd-4th hottest months ever for greater Pitt -wondering what September looks like with that same data someone had posted for the previous months-trying to see if the trend is continuing September has been another warm month. 16th warmest in the threaded record, but only 2015, 2016 & 2018 have been warmer since 1931. Could vary a bit prior to the end of the month on Monday, but given the current forecast should finish very near the current value of 69.4F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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