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September Banter 2024


George BM
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On 8/31/2024 at 8:38 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Sunday, September 1, 2024 8:46PM EDT

 

Current Alerts:

Flash Flood Watch in effect from 1AM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024 until 7PM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024.

High Wind Warning in effect from 8AM EDT Monday, September 2, 2014 until 8PM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024.

For the Rivers and Bay…

Hurricane Force-Wind Warning in effect from 12PM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024 until 7PM Monday, September 2, 2024.

 

Hurricane Helene made landfall earlier this evening as the strong landfalling topical cyclone anywhere in the world in recorded history w/ a minimum SLP of 882mb and 175knot(200mph) sustained winds. Even hours after it’s landfall as it races NNE into Georgia ahead of the longwave trough it is still packing 150mph winds as of the 8pm NHC advisory. Helene will bring us locally a historic weather day tomorrow. We get into that below.

Tonight through 6am:

Southerly flow will continue to usher in an increasingly humid, tropical airmass into the region with dewpoints into the mid-70s or so. Scattered showers and some heavy storms that have given parts of the already saturated region another 2 to 3 inches of rain are currently moving to the northeast north of I-70 and Baltimore. But as the night wares on additional showers and thunderstorms will move in from the south with the increasing southerly flow which will back to more southeasterly near the surface as Helene’s wind field moves into the region. As a result of this, low-level shear will increase and with lift in the atmosphere also increasing this will allow for supercells which may produce a few brief tornadoes, mainly after 2am. With the tropical airmass in place, these storms will be very efficient rain producers thus, some flash flooding is possible and a Flash Flood Watch goes into effect for the region starting at 1am in the DC metro and southwestwards and at 3am for areas to the northeast.

6am through 12pm(noon):

Southeasterly winds will start strengthening quickly around dawn and through the mid-morning hours from southwest to northeast and back to more out of due east as the Helene’s low pressure center enters the southwestern part of Virginia. Bands of heavy rain with embedded supercells capable of producing a couple tornadoes will continue through the morning. The greatest tornado threat locally will be between 6am and 10am before lower-level shear actually becomes too strong for supercells to sustain themselves given the fairly meager CAPE with wet adiabatic lapse rates through the entire troposphere, though it’s important to note that the tornado threat will not drop to zero as a brief tornado or two is still possible through about midday. By mid-morning easterly winds will become very strong to damaging gusting 50 to 65mph. With the soggy grounds from Gordon and the very wet pattern we had most of August in general many trees and some powerlines will come down. In terms of rainfall, rainfall come in arcing bands of tropical downpours and supercells around the metro regions. But in the I-81 vicinity as a strong shortwave trough approaches from the west and really starts phasing with Helene’s low pressure circulation, it will interact with the strong easterly winds allowing for very strong lift with very heavy SW to NE oriented rainbands stalling over that region to the immediate west of the track of Helene’s low pressure center.

12pm(noon) through 6pm:

The aforementioned shortwave trough moving in from the west will cause two things to occur.

1.      Helene’s circulation will receive a large amount of baroclinic energy which will quickly transition the storm into an extratropical system.

2.      Cooler and drier air mixing into the back side of the storm combined with an increasing surface gradient on the backside of the system will allow for extremely strong winds to form on the southwest and southside of the low-pressure center. A sting-jet may even form which, should it become well-defined, could further increase the maximum wind gusts.

Winds will calm down quite a bit for a brief period of time around midday in the local area as the storm center moves overhead with surface air pressure down into the 970-975mb range. As the storm moves northeast by the early afternoon hours the metro area will get the worst part of the storm. The very tight surface pressure gradient on the southwest side of the circulation will move overhead from southwest to northeast. By midday far southwestern parts of the forecast area such as Charlottesville, VA will start being affected by destructive westerly winds which will spread northeast into the DC metro area by 2pm or so and up into far northern MD and the Baltimore metro by 3-4pm. With the tight pressure gradient and even signs of a sting-jet with air descending and drying from the western to southern side of the circulation winds may gust over 80 mph at times. Some models even indicate that winds could be even higher than that especially if a well-defined sting-jet can form. This will lead to substantial tree and structural damage across the area as well as widespread power outages. Some light/moderate rain may accompany these winds. The strongest winds will probably last for up to two hours in any given location before winds gradually weaken below High Wind Warning criteria by around 4 hours after the onset and below Wind Advisory criteria by 6 hours after the onset after sunset. Skies will clear from southwest to northeast from late afternoon through mid-evening.

Monday night:

West/northwest winds may still be gusting up into Wind Advisory criteria at times (roughly 50mph or so) around sunset before decreasing by late evening though there will still be 25 to 35mph wind gusts through the night as temperatures fall into the lower 50s. Some far northwestern spots may even get into the upper 40s by dawn on Tuesday.

Main Impacts (shortened):

Wind:

Easterly winds may gust out of the as high as 55 to 65mph during the mid and late morning hours leading to moderate to major coastal flooding in the Potomac and west shore of the Chesapeake Bay before an around midday lull in the wind. Westerly winds may gust over 80 mph during the early to mid afternoon hours before windspeeds slowly decrease from the late afternoon hours onwards.

Rainfall:

Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches will be commonplace in the metro regions with local amounts of 4+ inches leading to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. However, in the far western areas of the I-81 corridor could receive 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 10+ inches leading to major flash flooding in that region.

 

- George BM

Well done, George BM! I forgot all about your forecasts because I am tracking some other business ongoing in our Nation that I likely wont mention here.

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10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think Harbaugh is getting more hate than he ever has now. I feel bad for him as a person...good dude. But...folks want a ring for Lamar, and that's where it's coming from. And people are upset...hope we can turn this around.

Really good guy, absolutely is. But it's been past time for the Ravens to move on. Yesterday was the 11th time the Ravens have lost a double digit lead in the 4th quarter in 5 years. I respect the job Coach Harbaugh has done, but his decision making and time management has been less than adequate for some time. Mind you, Lamar basically saved his job in 2018 as well. 

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Man this sucks...Orioles, Ravens, snow...three things outside of my control I root for for some extra happiness...they all letting me down, lol Although the Orioles I have much more hope for to turn it around.

But the Ravens? I'm disillusioned, disenchanted, and disgusted (only a small bit of hope we can overcome this) And snow? Well we all know what the deal is. Boo...just boo.

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3 hours ago, Interstate said:

Who gets more hate... Hyde or Harbaugh?

Atm...probably Harbaugh. Not everybody hates Hyde...but Harbs is basically public enemy #1 right now (some online being jerks comparing him to bin laden, smh). I just hate that all this negativity is surrounding our sports--I think the Ravens negativity is even worse. Seems to be reaching a fever pitch!

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Atm...probably Harbaugh. Not everybody hates Hyde...but Harbs is basically public enemy #1 right now (some online being jerks comparing him to bin laden, smh). I just hate that all this negativity is surrounding our sports--I think the Ravens negativity is even worse. Seems to be reaching a fever pitch!

I am just glad we won't be seeing anymore of that silly ass dancing in the locker room after a victory- well at least until they actually manage to get one.

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48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am just glad we won't be seeing anymore of that silly ass dancing in the locker room after a victory- well at least until they actually manage to get one.

Ah don't be a stick-in-the mud... c'mon wasn't anything wrong with that...all teams have dilly celebrations during the playoffs, do they not?

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On 9/15/2024 at 11:03 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I think Harbaugh is getting more hate than he ever has now. I feel bad for him as a person...good dude. But...folks want a ring for Lamar, and that's where it's coming from. And people are upset...hope we can turn this around.

Lamar needs to play better in consistent passing situations or in the playoffs when running from the qb spot is usually more hindered if he wants a ring in todays NFL....Unfortunately for Ravens fans that is not the best part of his game... Last year was set up perfectly for this team with the AFC qb injuries and home field advantage and a healthy Jackson for 17 games....Not likely to be that perfect a setup again....

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19 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Lamar needs to play better in consistent passing situations or in the playoffs when running from the qb spot is usually more hindered if he wants a ring in todays NFL....Unfortunately for Ravens fans that is not the best part of his game... Last year was set up perfectly for this team with the AFC qb injuries and home field advantage and a healthy Jackson for 17 games....Not likely to be that perfect a setup again....

We've never really had good WR's. Lamar has great vision, and I'm surprised that he is such a good QB being a natural athlete. usually someone with his speed (which there aren't that many people) isn't going to be great at throwing, which he is.  He ran into my sister at a restaurant once right before a game, then threw his 3rd perfect QB rating against Detroit (ties Kurt Warner for NFL record). I was like.. "wow, he must do this stuff naturally". 

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7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We've never really had good WR's. Lamar has great vision, and I'm surprised that he is such a good QB being a natural athlete. usually someone with his speed (which there aren't that many people) isn't going to be great at throwing, which he is.  He ran into my sister at a restaurant once right before a game, then threw his 3rd perfect QB rating against Detroit (ties Kurt Warner for NFL record). I was like.. "wow, he must do this stuff naturally". 

Lamar cannot hit a receiver that is more than 20 yards down the field.  How many wide open throws did he miss on Sunday.

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I just can't believe how bad the Os have been. 

It's not the pitching.

The offense is abysmal. 

They've had injuries but that doesn't explain Adleys 3 month slide.

Gunners been good but not great in the second half.

Cowser and Holiday struggle biggly against off speed pitching .

O'hearn has disappeared in the second half.

Slater shouldn't be your lead off hitter.

Santander has cooled since his torrid stretch he had.

Did I miss anything?

 

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2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

I just can't believe how bad the Os have been. 

It's not the pitching.

The offense is abysmal. 

They've had injuries but that doesn't explain Adleys 3 month slide.

Gunners been good but not great in the second half.

Cowser and Holiday struggle biggly against off speed pitching .

O'hearn has disappeared in the second half.

Slater shouldn't be your lead off hitter.

Santander has cooled since his torrid stretch he had.

Did I miss anything?

 

I was 18 when the O's last won the World Series. Over my first 18 years they were in the Fall Classic 6 times, winning 3 times.

Next year I turn 60. Oh, how naive I was in my youth thinking that I'd have many opportunities to see my beloved team in the series. Well...

Since the beginning of the 2023 season I've been cautiously excited that finally...my next opportunity to see a World Series game in Balmer was coming soon.

Right now, that seems so far away. Again. It's hard not to feel discouraged. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I was 18 when the O's last won the World Series. Over my first 18 years they were in the Fall Classic 6 times, winning 3 times.

Next year I turn 60. Oh, how naive I was in my youth thinking that I'd have many opportunities to see my beloved team in the series. Well...

Since the beginning of the 2023 season I've been cautiously excited that finally...my next opportunity to see a World Series game in Balmer was coming soon.

Right now, that seems so far away. Again. It's hard not to feel discouraged. 

It's just a head scratcher how bad their line up has been.

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Not sure what to say about the O’s. I’m sure the dark days of 2018-2021 had offensive stretches like this but maybe I just expected it and don’t remember. But this complete team wide ineptitude is inexplicable with a team that was scoring the most runs in the league 3 months ago.

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Brandon Hyde needs to go to begin with. Yes, it was 4-0 in the 9th. Yes the O's offense is dead right now. But Kimbrel man...

He needs to be DFA'd today. And this team has scored 21 runs in their last 11 games. 1.9 runs a game. Oh and did I mention the team is 39-42 in their last 81. That's under .500 for half a season. That's not just a few weeks of a slump.

Hyde was the guy to rebuild the team. It's time for the guy that takes the O's to the next level. 

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