George BM Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Forecast Discussion Sunday, September 1, 2024 8:46PM EDT Current Alerts: Flash Flood Watch in effect from 1AM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024 until 7PM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024. High Wind Warning in effect from 8AM EDT Monday, September 2, 2014 until 8PM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024. For the Rivers and Bay… Hurricane Force-Wind Warning in effect from 12PM EDT Monday, September 2, 2024 until 7PM Monday, September 2, 2024. Hurricane Helene made landfall earlier this evening as the strong landfalling topical cyclone anywhere in the world in recorded history w/ a minimum SLP of 882mb and 175knot(200mph) sustained winds. Even hours after it’s landfall as it races NNE into Georgia ahead of the longwave trough it is still packing 150mph winds as of the 8pm NHC advisory. Helene will bring us locally a historic weather day tomorrow. We get into that below. Tonight through 6am: Southerly flow will continue to usher in an increasingly humid, tropical airmass into the region with dewpoints into the mid-70s or so. Scattered showers and some heavy storms that have given parts of the already saturated region another 2 to 3 inches of rain are currently moving to the northeast north of I-70 and Baltimore. But as the night wares on additional showers and thunderstorms will move in from the south with the increasing southerly flow which will back to more southeasterly near the surface as Helene’s wind field moves into the region. As a result of this, low-level shear will increase and with lift in the atmosphere also increasing this will allow for supercells which may produce a few brief tornadoes, mainly after 2am. With the tropical airmass in place, these storms will be very efficient rain producers thus, some flash flooding is possible and a Flash Flood Watch goes into effect for the region starting at 1am in the DC metro and southwestwards and at 3am for areas to the northeast. 6am through 12pm(noon): Southeasterly winds will start strengthening quickly around dawn and through the mid-morning hours from southwest to northeast and back to more out of due east as the Helene’s low pressure center enters the southwestern part of Virginia. Bands of heavy rain with embedded supercells capable of producing a couple tornadoes will continue through the morning. The greatest tornado threat locally will be between 6am and 10am before lower-level shear actually becomes too strong for supercells to sustain themselves given the fairly meager CAPE with wet adiabatic lapse rates through the entire troposphere, though it’s important to note that the tornado threat will not drop to zero as a brief tornado or two is still possible through about midday. By mid-morning easterly winds will become very strong to damaging gusting 50 to 65mph. With the soggy grounds from Gordon and the very wet pattern we had most of August in general many trees and some powerlines will come down. In terms of rainfall, rainfall come in arcing bands of tropical downpours and supercells around the metro regions. But in the I-81 vicinity as a strong shortwave trough approaches from the west and really starts phasing with Helene’s low pressure circulation, it will interact with the strong easterly winds allowing for very strong lift with very heavy SW to NE oriented rainbands stalling over that region to the immediate west of the track of Helene’s low pressure center. 12pm(noon) through 6pm: The aforementioned shortwave trough moving in from the west will cause two things to occur. 1. Helene’s circulation will receive a large amount of baroclinic energy which will quickly transition the storm into an extratropical system. 2. Cooler and drier air mixing into the back side of the storm combined with an increasing surface gradient on the backside of the system will allow for extremely strong winds to form on the southwest and southside of the low-pressure center. A sting-jet may even form which, should it become well-defined, could further increase the maximum wind gusts. Winds will calm down quite a bit for a brief period of time around midday in the local area as the storm center moves overhead with surface air pressure down into the 970-975mb range. As the storm moves northeast by the early afternoon hours the metro area will get the worst part of the storm. The very tight surface pressure gradient on the southwest side of the circulation will move overhead from southwest to northeast. By midday far southwestern parts of the forecast area such as Charlottesville, VA will start being affected by destructive westerly winds which will spread northeast into the DC metro area by 2pm or so and up into far northern MD and the Baltimore metro by 3-4pm. With the tight pressure gradient and even signs of a sting-jet with air descending and drying from the western to southern side of the circulation winds may gust over 80 mph at times. Some models even indicate that winds could be even higher than that especially if a well-defined sting-jet can form. This will lead to substantial tree and structural damage across the area as well as widespread power outages. Some light/moderate rain may accompany these winds. The strongest winds will probably last for up to two hours in any given location before winds gradually weaken below High Wind Warning criteria by around 4 hours after the onset and below Wind Advisory criteria by 6 hours after the onset after sunset. Skies will clear from southwest to northeast from late afternoon through mid-evening. Monday night: West/northwest winds may still be gusting up into Wind Advisory criteria at times (roughly 50mph or so) around sunset before decreasing by late evening though there will still be 25 to 35mph wind gusts through the night as temperatures fall into the lower 50s. Some far northwestern spots may even get into the upper 40s by dawn on Tuesday. Main Impacts (shortened): Wind: Easterly winds may gust out of the as high as 55 to 65mph during the mid and late morning hours leading to moderate to major coastal flooding in the Potomac and west shore of the Chesapeake Bay before an around midday lull in the wind. Westerly winds may gust over 80 mph during the early to mid afternoon hours before windspeeds slowly decrease from the late afternoon hours onwards. Rainfall: Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches will be commonplace in the metro regions with local amounts of 4+ inches leading to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. However, in the far western areas of the I-81 corridor could receive 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 10+ inches leading to major flash flooding in that region. - George BM 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Make the injuries stop. Just make them stop, please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 5 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said: Make the injuries stop. Just make them stop, please. Mostly the pitchers. Ridiculous. If they are going to have any chance in the postseason the offense needs to get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Sipping on a WWS. Been awhile since I have had one of these, and I must say I am enjoying the hell out of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Just now, CAPE said: Mostly the pitchers. Ridiculous. If they are going to have any chance in the postseason the offense needs to get going again. Offense has been pedestrian since late June. Adley is in a major long term slump and Gunnar is merely a good hitter instead of an MVP candidate. Santander has slowed down after his super hot June-early August. Today is as must win as a non divisional game in early September can be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Just now, WxUSAF said: Offense has been pedestrian since late June. Adley is in a major long term slump and Gunnar is merely a good hitter instead of an MVP candidate. Santander has slowed down after his super hot June-early August. Today is as must win as a non divisional game in early September can be. Yeah if they can't manage a series win against lowly Colorado when they desperately need to get on track, that's not a good sign. If Hyde calls on Kimbrel one more damn time short of them being down by 10 runs in the fifth.. Unbelievable how bad he is at this. Might be time for a managerial change if they squeak in and then exit early again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Splurged for the seats behind the O’s dugout today. Need a win for sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Lots of Os fan’s today. And yes, the guy in the jersey is a buddy of mine. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 So my buddy made some friends and the bullpen coach gave him the bullpen scorecard because of his jersey. And he gave it to a young O’s fan. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 @toolsheds Winning our first series in nearly a month is great but we need to sweep the Chisox. What do you need? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 52 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: @toolsheds Winning our first series in nearly a month is great but we need to sweep the Chisox. What do you need? probably go down at least tomorrow. Considering getting the $65 pass to all games for the month of Sept. I know it is for standing room only, but you can't tell me that there will be no seats to use somewhere in the park :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Yeah if they can't manage a series win against lowly Colorado when they desperately need to get on track, that's not a good sign. If Hyde calls on Kimbrel one more damn time short of them being down by 10 runs in the fifth.. Unbelievable how bad he is at this. Might be time for a managerial change if they squeak in and then exit early again. Hyde made all the right moves last year but has struggled this year. I would say the way Cano and Buatista pitched last year would make alot of managers look good. I think he tries to hard sometimes when managing the bull pen. Cano threw 8 pitches yesterday and was pulled. Then came Kimbrel and just like that the game was over. Kimbrel shouldn't be on the post season roster but my guess is he will be and he will be in during a close game and end in disaster. With expanded rosters he should only be on mop up duty at this point. Also he tends to pull starters a bit to early when there rolling just because they hit the 90 pitch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 I know it's the White Sox, but the O's really needed a game like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 3 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: I know it's the White Sox, but the O's really needed a game like this. They need to sweep the worst team in baseball, a historically bad team. Get a little mojo, then go from there and see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: They need to sweep the worst team in baseball, a historically bad team. Get a little mojo, then go from there and see what happens. The White Sox already clinched their worst season ever. On September 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Thought today would be a good day to share. This month is my wife and I’s last month at our place in Frederick. We will be moving across the way to Edgewater for at least a year and a half before settling somewhere in northern AA/Howard/Carroll/Frederick counties in 2026. Will be partaking in the snow anus of the Mid Atlantic (Outside parts of DC) but the money we’ll be saving will be huge! Bright future ahead. If there’s a big snow event that I can chase locally, I’ll be there! For now, will enjoy living by the water and being closer to my family and our friends! Any AA peeps have some good restaurant/bar/shopping destinations to take in while in the county, feel free to share in a Quote or my PM. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/1/2024 at 7:37 PM, toolsheds said: probably go down at least tomorrow. Considering getting the $65 pass to all games for the month of Sept. I know it is for standing room only, but you can't tell me that there will be no seats to use somewhere in the park :-) Made it down today. Game was great and am now 6-0 in games attended :-) Going again next Sat against the Rays. The worst part of the game was that the giveaway shirt was supposed to be an XL but they must have given me and my 6'4" son ones from the Medium pile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 12 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Thought today would be a good day to share. This month is my wife and I’s last month at our place in Frederick. We will be moving across the way to Edgewater for at least a year and a half before settling somewhere in northern AA/Howard/Carroll/Frederick counties in 2026. Will be partaking in the snow anus of the Mid Atlantic (Outside parts of DC) but the money we’ll be saving will be huge! Bright future ahead. If there’s a big snow event that I can chase locally, I’ll be there! For now, will enjoy living by the water and being closer to my family and our friends! Any AA peeps have some good restaurant/bar/shopping destinations to take in while in the county, feel free to share in a Quote or my PM. Well, we did have that tornado 3 years ago. (One of my coworkers had to find new housing for almost a year. Hope that doesn't happen) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 I went to the game yesterday. The White Sox are really bad... our pitching staff has never been that bad... even in the rebuild days. I am pretty sure my son's 11U travel team could beat them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: I went to the game yesterday. The White Sox are really bad... our pitching staff has never been that bad... even in the rebuild days. I am pretty sure my son's 11U travel team could beat them. And, they used their bullpen. I was waiting for them to use a field player in the 9th. Hopefully this will help with their confidence at the plate. The one hit which shows that they are at least thinking about just stringing together some hits was Cowser's dribbler to left field late in the game. Finally he is looking at what they are giving him and adjusts. He strikes out way too much.....144 Ks in 422 ABs = 34.12% of his at bats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/1/2024 at 5:36 AM, CAPE said: If Hyde continues to bring Kimbrel in to pitch in key situations, it will do the opposite. Demoralizing. Cano threw like 8 pitches. Hyde has no clue. Dang you can't stand Harbaugh or Hyde? Lol I'm gonna start calling y'all HHH (Harbaugh Hyde Haters) It's amazing some of our fanbase can't stand either despite both coaching winning teams! In terms of adversity I was talking more about overcoming the injuries. As far as bringing Kimbrel in: I think that's more of an issue of not having somebody else up from AAA to send out instead. As it was, Kimbrel and Dominguez were the only two left Hyde coulda used. I can guarantee he didn't wanna use Kimbrel, but also didn't want to give Cano two innings either in case he needed him for the next day. (Remember, Kremer's early exit caused us to use like 4 arms) And you can't risk burning Cano for the next day (Sunday's game) because you had already used so many arms on Saturday. I find a lot of the Hyde dissatisfaction comes over bullpen usage. And 90% of the complaints I see are typical ways bullpens are used around the league. Matchups, sometimes one batter, no more than an inning...ya see this often. Yet people complain when Hyde does it, lol I don't think his bullpen usage is as bad as some make it out to be. It's just that our BP arms haven't been as good this year--and that can make any manager look bad because when they come in they've screwed up sometimes. Although lately... they have been doing better overall. Perhaps they can lock in more down the stretch (and get Webb and Coulombe back). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/1/2024 at 8:06 AM, Itstrainingtime said: Hyde has made a lot of bad moves. There are decisions managers make that are easy to second guess after the fact when they don't work out. Hyde though, had made a lot a lot of moves that cause people to scream before the situation even plays out. He has not been good. And I don't think that's unfair to say. There are only 3 times this year where I said "bad move". Most of the time, I get it. Saturday, for example...at that point, Hyde had a choice: Use Cano for two innings and have him also unavailable if you need him on Sunday, or Kimbrel. Dominguez was the only other arm left. I mean I guess Irvin? (Not reliable for a close game either) Bad choices. I think folks don't always consider the nuances of bullpen management. During the regular season, It's as much about who you're gonna have the next day as who you use today. This year the bullpen arms have struggled--there have been times where people scream at Hyde but here's the thing: If you bring an arm in to matchup better when a starter is in the 6th over 90 pitches, he has to perform. If he doesn't, that's on him not the manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang you can't stand Harbaugh or Hyde? Lol I'm gonna start calling y'all HHH (Harbaugh Hyde Haters) It's amazing some of our fanbase can't stand either despite both coaching winning teams! In terms of adversity I was talking more about overcoming the injuries. As far as bringing Kimbrel in: I think that's more of an issue of not having somebody else up from AAA to send out instead. As it was, Kimbrel and Dominguez were the only two left Hyde coulda used. I can guarantee he didn't wanna use Kimbrel, but also didn't want to give Cano two innings either in case he needed him for the next day. (Remember, Kremer's early exit caused us to use like 4 arms) And you can't risk burning Cano for the next day (Sunday's game) because you had already used so many arms on Saturday. I find a lot of the Hyde dissatisfaction comes over bullpen usage. And 90% of the complaints I see are typical ways bullpens are used around the league. Matchups, sometimes one batter, no more than an inning...ya see this often. Yet people complain when Hyde does it, lol I don't think his bullpen usage is as bad as some make it out to be. It's just that our BP arms haven't been as good this year--and that can make any manager look bad because when they come in they've screwed up sometimes. Although lately... they have been doing better overall. Perhaps they can lock in more down the stretch (and get Webb and Coulombe back). Yeah it sucks when you give a guy keys to Maserati a but drives it like a Ford Pinto. Hyde makes bad decisions with pinch hitter and relievers all the time. He goes by the numbers to much instead of managing the team. I still say that Hyde should have been fired when the rebuild was over. That is what Houston did and they won a World Series. Yes I know the Orioles have had a ridiculous amount of injuries... but the guys goes with the numbers too much and does not trust his gut. Also, it wouldnt hurt to keep the best players in the lineup and instead of using scrubs all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 21 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yeah it sucks when you give a guy keys to Maserati a but drives it like a Ford Pinto. Hyde makes bad decisions with pinch hitter and relievers all the time. He goes by the numbers to much instead of managing the team. I still say that Hyde should have been fired when the rebuild was over. That is what Houston did and they won a World Series. Yes I know the Orioles have had a ridiculous amount of injuries... but the guys goes with the numbers too much and does not trust his gut. Also, it wouldnt hurt to keep the best players in the lineup and instead of using scrubs all the time. You sure about that part? Pinch hitter numbers to the contrary, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You sure about that part? Pinch hitter numbers to the contrary, lol I have seen way too many times this year were he has lifted players for pinch hitters when he should not have. Like when you have bases loaded in the 8th and you lift a hot player to pinch hit with a guy without a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: I have seen way too many times this year were he has lifted players for pinch hitters when he should not have. Like when you have bases loaded in the 8th and you lift a hot player to pinch hit with a guy without a hit. That one game a couple weeks ago that you're probably referring to was one of the very few examples of Hyde missing on the pinch hitting this year--bad decision that game, smh But outside of that, though...it's worked like 95% of the time--numbers don't lie, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That one game a couple weeks ago that you're probably referring to was one of the very few examples of Hyde missing on the pinch hitting this year--bad decision that game, smh But outside of that, though...it's worked like 95% of the time--numbers don't lie, man! The numbers dont lie... I just dont like that he goes with the numbers all the time and not his gut. I think the batting order is changed too much too often. I do not like how is uses the relievers. I but the Orioles would be up 10 more games if they were managed correctly. I guess I am just old school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Marquee matchup tonight: 2 pitchers with a combined record of 1-13 with ERAs either side of 7.00. O's better be ready to score runs. Maybe a lot of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Marquee matchup tonight: 2 pitchers with a combined record of 1-13 with ERAs either side of 7.00. O's better be ready to score runs. Maybe a lot of runs. And watch tonight is a pitchers duel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Whitesox are 4-41 in their last 45 games. Let that sink in. Law of averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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