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September Discobs 2024


George BM
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18 minutes ago, stormy said:

Hot off the press, the 00z NAM hammers Augusta County again!

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This obviously would not good for Augusta / Nelson / Albemarle Counties.... Didn't think I would be saying this but the ground is so moist down here 0.50 would cause some issues ... Reminds me of the last 2 weeks of June 95 except nobody here has picked up the 30 inches that Madison County got in that event... However I have picked up 10.4 in the last 13 days and there are some higher totals around...

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8 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

This obviously would not good for Augusta / Nelson / Albemarle Counties.... Didn't think I would be saying this but the ground is so moist down here 0.50 would cause some issues ... Reminds me of the last 2 weeks of June 95 except nobody here has picked up the 30 inches that Madison County got in that event... However I have picked up 10.4 in the last 13 days and there are some higher totals around...

I have received 9.13 during this time. The NAM continues to hammer us since yesterday, run after run!!

The latest from 06z - Another 4 - 5 inches??

1727827200-sNTE2ETWDIQ.png

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On 9/28/2024 at 10:22 AM, JenkinsJinkies said:

Clippers get weakened by the Appalachians anyway.

True...I think they were also a cause of many forecast busts back in the day.  However, they're also a product of a jet stream that dips far enough south in the winter to bring sustained cold, something that's been lacking for several years now.

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14 hours ago, 87storms said:


There’s a legit swarm of them outside of where I work in Columbia. I’ve seen them on my balcony in Frederick, too. It is what it is. I read an article recently that implied they’re overhyped and that they’ve become meals for other animals such as birds, etc.

THAT would be great news...

14 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

They're all over Carroll County. 

I do a late fall camping trip each year with my older brother in French Creek State Park, located between Reading, PA and Philly. I remember the notices going up on their camp reservation website starting about five years ago that lantern flies were "beginning to invade" southeastern PA and to be careful about packing out of your site when leaving so you weren't importing them into other locales. They've basically changed their guidance to, "if you see 'em, kill 'em." Based on reports here and generally across the Mid Atlantic...I'd say the lantern flies' invasion has been a success.  :( 

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2 hours ago, IronTy said:
Somebody make the melancholy weather stop please!!!


I’ve decided to start making lemonade…biked over at Little Bennett today. Damp with a few puddles, but otherwise rideable. This weather is getting played out, but Mother Nature is gonna continue to do what she wants. Looks like drier weather by midweek.

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Very impressed with the models tonight - especially the NAM , which has been consistently showing tonight's heavy rain centered over the Waynesboro - Charlottesville corridor....Just about to another two inches tonight ! Extreme 2 weeks ... !

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As I suspected, as the closed low moves eastward and weakens/opens it looks like any appreciable rain will fall in the higher terrain to the west and then further south as it skirts off the coast. An entire week socked in with clouds and probably end up with less than a quarter inch total here. Plenty of spotty drizzle though!

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25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The most impressive returns on radar over here this morning are roost rings.

Isn't it weird how it's been raining in Southern VA for the past 6 weeks, but soon as it moves north it just evaporates? It's been 2 months since my area has had a soaking rain over an inch. It's just been drizzling for 3 weeks straight. 

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Isn't it weird how it's been raining in Southern VA for the past 6 weeks, but soon as it moves north it just evaporates? It's been 2 months since my area has had a soaking rain over an inch. It's just been drizzling for 3 weeks straight. 

The news anchors in this area  ( WPVI channel 6 and NBC New 10 ) always chime in after the weather forecast person is done and proudly states well we needed the rain. 

What rain ?

Its been cloudy for the past 8 days but with hardly any measurable rain in this part of the forecast area. 

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42 minutes ago, frd said:

The news anchors in this area  ( WPVI channel 6 and NBC New 10 ) always chime in after the weather forecast person is done and proudly states well we needed the rain. 

What rain ?

Its been cloudy for the past 8 days but with hardly any measurable rain in this part of the forecast area. 

Persistent anomalous h5 ridge in Canada with associated cutoff lows over Atlantic Canada. That combo keeps precip mostly suppressed to our south and west. The battle zone has been right through our region- the further north and east you are, the lower the chance for meaningful rain. The one chance we had was with the rain band on the NE side of Helene, and it just missed. Places like OCMD and points south got a soaking rain. Models didn't do very well with locating that.

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Around 2" over the past 5 days in my vicinity (primarily over the Catoctins), but you can definitely see the screw zone towards the Bay and east.  There is another pocket along the DC/Bmore corridor that appears to have jackpot as well.  The bigger totals have been further west and south closer to Front Royal.

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8 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Chipping away at the drought - 0.70" since yesterday afternoon and 2.25" for the month (most of it in last 8 days).

I am dead-on 2.25" as of this morning's CoCoRahs report, but we've tacked a few hundredths since then.  The problem is that just over 2" isn't chipping away, it is falling further behind.

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39 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I am dead-on 2.25" as of this morning's CoCoRahs report, but we've tacked a few hundredths since then.  The problem is that just over 2" isn't chipping away, it is falling further behind.

Nearest station to me since my local guy called it quits is in NW Prince William county and they have 4.70" for the month of September. I'll probably say a little less here since a location several miles east is only at 2.92.

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