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September Discobs 2024


George BM
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13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Been a LONG time since we've had this kind of reverse bust with precip. Nice to have. 

 

2 hours ago, high risk said:

Definitely not handled well at all by the guidance.   Closing in on 1” here. 

Took a look at overnight guidance. Don’t see anything that showed this training heavy rain at all. Even Hrrr didn’t pick it up really once it had started!

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FWIW, SW portion of the LWX CWA is now under a Flood Watch for tomorrow 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
418 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VAZ025-036>040-503-504-507-508-262000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0025.240927T0600Z-240928T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Western
Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central
Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Madison, Lovingston, Stanardsville,
Stuarts Draft, Waynesboro, Staunton, Washington, Wintergreen,
Monterey, Hightown, Big Meadows, and Charlottesville
418 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northwest, and western Virginia,
  including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle,
  Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest
  Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock.
  In western Virginia, Augusta, Eastern Highland and Western
  Highland.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water
  crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the area early
    Friday morning through Friday evening. Heavy rainfall is
    likely along and just east of the Blue Ridge, and across
    parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley and surrounding high
    terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with
    locally higher amounts possible.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information
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14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Took a look at overnight guidance. Don’t see anything that showed this training heavy rain at all. Even Hrrr didn’t pick it up really once it had started!

      Exactly. Even when the HRRR initialized it well:

image.png.cf52ed8ab1f92d03f59e1609c786a14b.png

 

It dramatically weakened within only one hour:

image.png.db7cf468d47e4696e3edd3a055928923.png

When this happens, it's a clear indication that the forcing to drive the rain area is largely not being captured in the model.   It has no reason to think that heavy, organized rain should be there, and it works to wipe it out.

 

 

 

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