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September Discobs 2024


George BM
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Seems to be some modest model agreement in a small MCS (or closer of cells) coming into the DC area in the very late afternoon or early evening hours.    Perhaps less certainly for north-central Maryland.    Second batch of showers, covering some part of the area, towards sunrise.

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18 minutes ago, high risk said:

         I'll say this:   with that NAM3 focus of heaviest rain, there is some (but not complete) model agreement for northeast MD to get soaked early Sunday

Ugh. You and I are going to miss the evening stuff west and the overnight stuff east aren’t we?

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17 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

I'm curious...why is that cloud shield for the Staunton and Harrisonburg storms extending so far south and east? It's also reflected on the GOES16 depiction. Haven't seen anything like that...maybe ever.

image.gif.9d09a4d7a51b795770893f2122e329a8.gif

Winds in the upper-levels of the troposphere (~25,000-40,000ft) are very swift out of the northwest. Much faster than the modest low/mid-level NW flow where the majority of the convective clouds are located. So while the storms are moving SE with that modest NW low/mid-level flow the anvils from the storm tops are being blow to the SE of the storms.

The stronger upper-level flow being orientated in about the same direction as the weaker low/mid-level is also helping with the storm-splitting action we are seeing to our NW. If, for example, the strength of the upper-level NW winds were more equal or even weaker than the deep-layer low/mid level NW winds, storms would more readily congeal into a solid SE-moving line... small line segments, however, can still form in this environment.

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42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

80/66. Need that sweet sweet Canadian fall air pronto.

No joke. Daughter's fall softball league feels more like a summer league at this point. September is an extension of summer. 

Made it out to Deep Creek this afternoon and its soupy out here. Thunderstorm just rolled through.

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19 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

No joke. Daughter's fall softball league feels more like a summer league at this point. September is an extension of summer. 

Made it out to Deep Creek this afternoon and its soupy out here. Thunderstorm just rolled through.

Glad the radar was colorful but once again not in MLP. 0.02” for the day and 0.19” for the month. About 5” since the beginning of June. Should be around 25. 

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1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

No joke. Daughter's fall softball league feels more like a summer league at this point. September is an extension of summer. 

Made it out to Deep Creek this afternoon and its soupy out here. Thunderstorm just rolled through.

Yep. We did several hours of yard work this afternoon, when it peaked at 87, well beyond the forecasted high. My wife and I were sweating our keisters off...  :) 

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1 hour ago, katabatic said:

Glad the radar was colorful but once again not in MLP. 0.02” for the day and 0.19” for the month. About 5” since the beginning of June. Should be around 25. 

Wow, thats dry! We had 5 minutes of heavy rain and that was it. Sun is back out making for a nice evening sunset. Lake is definitely on the low side.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
739 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  West central Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Northeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 815 PM EDT.

* At 739 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Berryville,
  or near Charles Town, moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Hamilton, Hillsboro, Wickliffe,
  Summit Point, Gaylord, Stringtown, and Rippon.
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
810 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 810 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Purcellville,
  or 10 miles southeast of Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
  Leesburg, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Lucketts, and Waterford.
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1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I was on the beltway from Baltimore Co to Howard Co and got a grand total of 10 drops, not all at once either…

 

This event is a dud isn’t it?

    The best shot at a soaking in the Baltimore area was always round 2, after midnight.     Last several runs of the HRRR really like central and northeast MD.

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