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September Discobs 2024


George BM
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17 hours ago, CAPE said:

I've got some yellow color here but not normal- due to stress. Plenty of crispy leaves down. I was out earlier with the leaf blower.

 

Some color up my way. But unsure if it’s stress or not 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Some color up my way. But unsure if it’s stress or not 

Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years.

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years.

Yup - was working outside all day yesterday on a retaining wall project.  When the breeze picked up periodically a big oak in our front yard was shedding a lot.  A couple maples too.  Was almost Fall-like. 

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47 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years.

In my area as well.

 

Have you noticed the grass areas around various mature trees and how that area of grass is more brownish and crspy versus other areas ofthe lawn,  that although dry and dormant are a little less brown. 

All the roots of the trees taking the every drop of water out of the already extremely dry soil moisture. noticed around trees here and also the Crate Myrtles as well.   

 

 

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s actually sprinkling in Ellicott city :huh:

I was walking home from a friends house just a moment ago and was excited to be able to put a T in my CoCoRaHS report tomorrow morning.

It could be a frustrating few days because it looks and feels tropical outside but some of the models are bearish for up this way.

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GFS - Has a dry area over central areas with 1 inch plus SW and to the NE. - Odd look

3KM Nam - Much drier General and pushed the heaviest rain southward

Icon - General 1 to 2 inch for the area

Euro - 6z - looks like it is also pulling more moisture south of the DC area - quarter or less than half inch for the dc area with pockets of more.. really getting dry up near MD/PA border

National Blend of models - about half inch near PA/MD border and in the 1 to 2 inch south of DC

Seems we have a pretty good sense that the heavier rains will be down towards Fredericksburg area and southwards. The trend is not our friend if we are expecting more rain in the DC area and up towards MD/PA border! Hope we see a reversal!

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z Euro depicts significant rain for most of the region. 1-3" It has more significant precip associated with the low that develops off the coast as the primary weakens in W NC.

 

the 6z Euro cut back by 1-3 inches lol

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GFS - Has a dry area over central areas with 1 inch plus SW and to the NE. - Odd look
3KM Nam - Much drier General and pushed the heaviest rain southward
Icon - General 1 to 2 inch for the area
Euro - 6z - looks like it is also pulling more moisture south of the DC area - quarter or less than half inch for the dc area with pockets of more.. really getting dry up near MD/PA border
National Blend of models - about half inch near PA/MD border and in the 1 to 2 inch south of DC
Seems we have a pretty good sense that the heavier rains will be down towards Fredericksburg area and southwards. The trend is not our friend if we are expecting more rain in the DC area and up towards MD/PA border! Hope we see a reversal!
 
 
 
 

Leaving the desert tomorrow, technically, but maybe not literally.
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58 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So what caused this to near totally collapse over the past day? And why is it that these drying trends never reverse even if there's still enough time to do so?

Probably something that did not get modeled right.. strength of Helene, the High to the north and blocking.. stuff that seemed to be missed. The models seemed to see the blocking better last week and then lost it. Anyways, whatever it was, all the models were not seeing it well. 

 

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So I noticed something. We seem to be repeating 2016 and 2017 just in reverse order. Last year started with a horrible winter and ended with a more tepid December and rainfall totals for DCA were more or less the same as 2017’s. This year started with a warm winter that had snow, had intense summer heat, and a wet start that turned dry. Given that we’re going into a nina and with how recent rains have busted we could very well see similar precip levels to 2016 (which was 31 in). DCA currently sits at 29 in. YTD and with the current rate it’s not impossible for us to only get 2 inches of rain for the remainder of the year.

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3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So I noticed something. We seem to be repeating 2016 and 2017 just in reverse order. Last year started with a horrible winter and ended with a more tepid December and rainfall totals for DCA were more or less the same as 2017’s. This year started with a warm winter that had snow, had intense summer heat, and a wet start that turned dry. Given that we’re going into a nina and with how recent rains have busted we could very well see similar precip levels to 2016 (which was 31 in). DCA currently sits at 29 in. YTD and with the current rate it’s not impossible for us to only get 2 inches of rain for the remainder of the year.

Thats going to be tough to pull off. DCA averages ~10" of precip Oct-Dec. 

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