CAPE Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 I've got some yellow color here but not normal- due to stress. Plenty of crispy leaves down. I was out earlier with the leaf blower. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 17 hours ago, CAPE said: I've got some yellow color here but not normal- due to stress. Plenty of crispy leaves down. I was out earlier with the leaf blower. Some color up my way. But unsure if it’s stress or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 1 hour ago, mappy said: Some color up my way. But unsure if it’s stress or not Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years. Yup - was working outside all day yesterday on a retaining wall project. When the breeze picked up periodically a big oak in our front yard was shedding a lot. A couple maples too. Was almost Fall-like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years. In my area as well. Have you noticed the grass areas around various mature trees and how that area of grass is more brownish and crspy versus other areas ofthe lawn, that although dry and dormant are a little less brown. All the roots of the trees taking the every drop of water out of the already extremely dry soil moisture. noticed around trees here and also the Crate Myrtles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 Latest model runs kinda suck for the northeast portion of our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 There's more dryness under trees because less dew forms there overnight compared to uncovered areas where more radiational cooling can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest model runs kinda suck for the northeast portion of our region. WPC gives my area an inch. I take that. Now do I believe it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 4 minutes ago, frd said: WPC gives my area an inch. I take that. Now do I believe it..... That likely doesn't include the latest model runs. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 12z Euro looks better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 Hooked up my new Tempest station at home this afternoon. 79/58 with the first ob. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 12z Euro looks better. Gfs looks crappier for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Gfs looks crappier for many. Yeah a disaster. Like a tenth here lol. Dry begets dry. NAM looks awful here too. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 It’s actually sprinkling in Ellicott city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s actually sprinkling in Ellicott city I was walking home from a friends house just a moment ago and was excited to be able to put a T in my CoCoRaHS report tomorrow morning. It could be a frustrating few days because it looks and feels tropical outside but some of the models are bearish for up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 14 hours ago, CAPE said: That likely doesn't include the latest model runs. We shall see. Latest from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 0z Euro depicts significant rain for most of the region. 1-3" It has more significant precip associated with the low that develops off the coast as the primary weakens in W NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 GFS - Has a dry area over central areas with 1 inch plus SW and to the NE. - Odd look 3KM Nam - Much drier General and pushed the heaviest rain southward Icon - General 1 to 2 inch for the area Euro - 6z - looks like it is also pulling more moisture south of the DC area - quarter or less than half inch for the dc area with pockets of more.. really getting dry up near MD/PA border National Blend of models - about half inch near PA/MD border and in the 1 to 2 inch south of DC Seems we have a pretty good sense that the heavier rains will be down towards Fredericksburg area and southwards. The trend is not our friend if we are expecting more rain in the DC area and up towards MD/PA border! Hope we see a reversal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 4 hours ago, CAPE said: 0z Euro depicts significant rain for most of the region. 1-3" It has more significant precip associated with the low that develops off the coast as the primary weakens in W NC. the 6z Euro cut back by 1-3 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 GFS - Has a dry area over central areas with 1 inch plus SW and to the NE. - Odd look 3KM Nam - Much drier General and pushed the heaviest rain southward Icon - General 1 to 2 inch for the area Euro - 6z - looks like it is also pulling more moisture south of the DC area - quarter or less than half inch for the dc area with pockets of more.. really getting dry up near MD/PA border National Blend of models - about half inch near PA/MD border and in the 1 to 2 inch south of DC Seems we have a pretty good sense that the heavier rains will be down towards Fredericksburg area and southwards. The trend is not our friend if we are expecting more rain in the DC area and up towards MD/PA border! Hope we see a reversal! Leaving the desert tomorrow, technically, but maybe not literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Not great Bob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 So what caused this to near totally collapse over the past day? And why is it that these drying trends never reverse even if there's still enough time to do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 58 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So what caused this to near totally collapse over the past day? And why is it that these drying trends never reverse even if there's still enough time to do so? Probably something that did not get modeled right.. strength of Helene, the High to the north and blocking.. stuff that seemed to be missed. The models seemed to see the blocking better last week and then lost it. Anyways, whatever it was, all the models were not seeing it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 So I noticed something. We seem to be repeating 2016 and 2017 just in reverse order. Last year started with a horrible winter and ended with a more tepid December and rainfall totals for DCA were more or less the same as 2017’s. This year started with a warm winter that had snow, had intense summer heat, and a wet start that turned dry. Given that we’re going into a nina and with how recent rains have busted we could very well see similar precip levels to 2016 (which was 31 in). DCA currently sits at 29 in. YTD and with the current rate it’s not impossible for us to only get 2 inches of rain for the remainder of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 75/61...with just the lightest kiss of drizzle for about 3 minutes as we finished our big doggo walk right around 6 p.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So I noticed something. We seem to be repeating 2016 and 2017 just in reverse order. Last year started with a horrible winter and ended with a more tepid December and rainfall totals for DCA were more or less the same as 2017’s. This year started with a warm winter that had snow, had intense summer heat, and a wet start that turned dry. Given that we’re going into a nina and with how recent rains have busted we could very well see similar precip levels to 2016 (which was 31 in). DCA currently sits at 29 in. YTD and with the current rate it’s not impossible for us to only get 2 inches of rain for the remainder of the year. Thats going to be tough to pull off. DCA averages ~10" of precip Oct-Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 2 hours ago, TSG said: Thats going to be tough to pull off. DCA averages ~10" of precip Oct-Dec. in fairness I posted this before the 18z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Too bad there are all these clouds - would’ve been a good night to head west to see the aurora. Hoping for another good shot the next 1-2 years of solar maximum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Well I'll be! Actual liquid falling from the sky! lol Only 0.08 in gauge, but first measured precip since 9/2. Currently light rain is falling and 62.0/61.3 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 For Christsake, NWS forecast is now less than a tenth possible through Wednesday evening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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