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September Discobs 2024


George BM
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22 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Reached an interior high of 74.5 by letting the sunshine in

Outside high of 73.5 

Outside low of 52 and inside of 70.5 which is 2F warmer than inside low of 68.5 off a 45 low previous day   It will be mild today.

i can go 65/45 with no heat for 24  hours if it is sunny 

in the winter, if its sunny and 40 or milder and not windy I can go from 11am-4pm  with no heat and keep inside at 68. 

 

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3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

And...... poof lol. It keeps it offshore now. Anyone who surfs should keep an eye on it. It looks like a swell maker. Not a drop of rain the entire GFS run.

I get your drift!

I occasionally post unusual model thoughts summer and winter, but my confidence level is always very low beyond 7 days because the next run usually corrects.

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58 minutes ago, stormy said:

I get your drift!

I occasionally post unusual model thoughts summer and winter, but my confidence level is always very low beyond 7 days because the next run usually corrects.

I'm a huge weenie. I've been tracking every run lol. I thought more people would of talked about it. It still looks like an interesting setup for a big ocean storm.

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(Vegas weather update)

The wildfire smoke from Cali has infiltrated Vegas this morning.  Can smell it.  Maybe not as dense as the worst times we had it last year, but the scent is legit.  Looks like it'll blow over by later today.

In other news (no, I would not post Vegas weather in storm mode), it actually lightly rained here the other day from a rogue cell overhead.  Been some afternoon storms around town last weekend, but they typically stayed out of the valley.

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Matt Lanza (theeyewall.com) pointed out that AI Euro had the best performance for landfall location with Francine: 15 straight runs between Vermillion Bay and Grand Isle. So, out of curiosity, I checked out what it generated in today's 12Z run: a Sandy-esque hook toward NJ but doesn't make it to shore, drifts offshore for a day, and eventually heads towards Virginia Beach to bring us our rain. :lol:

Screenshot 2024-09-12 163124.gif

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Strange 5 weeks - streams coming out of the southern SNP went from completely dry or a trickle to raging floodwaters to back to either completely dry or barely a trickle again.... Indicative of low groundwater I guess, everything is still nice and green though....

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15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

All the globals have the coastal tropical-ish rainmaker next week. Euro/Icon solution seems most fragile whereas Gfs/GGEM have a stronger defined low come onshore.

Speaking of fragile. Euro and icon mostly flaked out overnight. Just sort of meander something offshore, although southern half of the area still gets good rain on the euro.  Gfs/GGEM hold with a clear low pressure moving onshore and into the area with heavy rain. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of fragile. Euro and icon mostly flaked out overnight. Just sort of meander something offshore, although southern half of the area still gets good rain on the euro.  Gfs/GGEM hold with a clear low pressure moving onshore and into the area with heavy rain. 

Good friend of mine is getting married on cape cod next week. Hope the Euro is right about that stout HP

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1 hour ago, kgottwald said:

Wonder if it's possible to get through all of September with absolutely zero rain.

 

Only calendar month that's happened with is October 1963, counting traces as zero. But the DCA absolute drought record is 34 days in the fall of 2007.

It's definitely been a dry month! I've only recorded 0.06" of precip.

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This morning was the first in over a week where I didn't end up in the 40s (or 30s earlier in the week) at 52.5. Colors are starting to pop beyond the (beautiful) sugar maples although I think drought stress is contributing more to that than just the warm days/cool nights. Sure as hell be nice to get some rain. I'm sitting at 0.12" for the month so far.

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8 minutes ago, katabatic said:

This morning was the first in over a week where I didn't end up in the 40s (or 30s earlier in the week) at 52.5. Colors are starting to pop beyond the (beautiful) sugar maples although I think drought stress is contributing more to that than just the warm days/cool nights. Sure as hell be nice to get some rain. I'm sitting at 0.12" for the month so far.

Drought stress is certainly contributing, but I’m feeling cautiously optimistic for good color IMBY at least. The early color change that’s starting has some bright colors as opposed to the very dull ones last year. Lots of rain in late July through mid August and then a dry and slightly cool month since? 

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8 minutes ago, katabatic said:

This morning was the first in over a week where I didn't end up in the 40s (or 30s earlier in the week) at 52.5. Colors are starting to pop beyond the (beautiful) sugar maples although I think drought stress is contributing more to that than just the warm days/cool nights. Sure as hell be nice to get some rain. I'm sitting at 0.12" for the month so far.

Yep, same here. Was a 'toasty' 58.8 this morning with cloudy skies, been in 30's (upper) and 40's for about a week. Sitting at 0.29 for the month, but all of that fell on the 1st and 2nd. 

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9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Is it ever going to rain again?  Science says yes, but I remain skeptical.

12z global blend is about 2” for you next week. Still several days out and probably still touchy with details given the weakly forced environment.

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38 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Outstanding day to work outside. 73.2 for a high under cloudy skies with a threatening look to them, although nothing fell. Got the yard plugged and overseeded, heading into the 'forest' to do it tomorrow. 

I got up to 74.8 today...most of the past 10 days I've seen basically Ely, NV weather...the diurnal spread has been between 35 and 40 degrees. I'll wait until we are due to get some rain to patch up the yard after I singed the F out of about 20% of the grass w/too heavy fertilizer spread in the spring :arrowhead:

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A beautiful day at Deep Creek.  72/58 under Sunny skies.

Higher elevations in WV as were driving up yesterday evening had some good colors and more foliage transition than here.  Mostly green but some yellow at the house but I’m sure the drought will put a damper in colors this year.

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