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September vibes - Last 90s for some, 1st frost for others


tamarack
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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s turned into summerstein 2022 here. Yards dead. Trees dropping leaves etc. What a stein.

Enjoy the rain. We stay dry. At least hopefully. 

"This will be our next opportunity for showers across southern New England. Main change I`ve made from the NBM is to slow down the progression of PoPs as the NBM is much too fast/high in bringing chances in based on the consensus of deterministic guidance Tue Night through much of Wed. Really think that Wed PM through Thu NBMmuch more dialed in as this coincides with the placement/timing of a 20-30+ kt 925 hPa E to NEly low level jet. This is also where we tap into 1-2+ inch PWATs. At this point most confident in precipamounts/chances for the immediate south coast, whereas think there could be a tight N/S gradient with little if any precip along/north of the MA Turnpike

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22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Enjoy the rain. We stay dry. At least hopefully. 

"This will be our next opportunity for showers across southern New England. Main change I`ve made from the NBM is to slow down the progression of PoPs as the NBM is much too fast/high in bringing chances in based on the consensus of deterministic guidance Tue Night through much of Wed. Really think that Wed PM through Thu NBMmuch more dialed in as this coincides with the placement/timing of a 20-30+ kt 925 hPa E to NEly low level jet. This is also where we tap into 1-2+ inch PWATs. At this point most confident in precipamounts/chances for the immediate south coast, whereas think there could be a tight N/S gradient with little if any precip along/north of the MA Turnpike

This looks like one of those deals that south of NYC gets solid rain and a few showers or period of light rain gets to the Cape with not much else NW. strong HP is gonna be tough to get Precip north of NYC. Maybe even Philly 

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8 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I got 50 gpm on my well, I never have run out in 30 years. I know a lot of wells only get 7-10 gpm, I got lucky. I remember sweating that day they were drilling praying for a good flow.

There is an old man prostate joke in here somewhere. 

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72F at ALB at 11pm in mid-September is pretty warm.

57F here, which is warm but 10 degrees cooler than BTV.  But to the east BLM is 50F in NNH.

The interior SE Mass cool pocket that radiates  is always fun to see… TAN at 50F and widespread low/mid 50s in SE NE.

Dry/drought and high pressure letting the sandy desert radiate down there.

IMG_0725.gif.78924b86c230f0dbe4aff6e33fcf0f35.gif

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9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like one of those deals that south of NYC gets solid rain and a few showers or period of light rain gets to the Cape with not much else NW. strong HP is gonna be tough to get Precip north of NYC. Maybe even Philly 

'As for rain amount`s, per GFES ensemble a 30% to 50% chance for totals AOA 0.5" south of the Mass Pike, with 20% to 30% AOA 1.0" across Cape and Islands. ECMWF ENS has very similar probabilites for areas AOA 0.5" though slightly more widespread AOA 1.0" across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts

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14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

'As for rain amount`s, per GFES ensemble a 30% to 50% chance for totals AOA 0.5" south of the Mass Pike, with 20% to 30% AOA 1.0" across Cape and Islands. ECMWF ENS has very similar probabilites for areas AOA 0.5" though slightly more widespread AOA 1.0" across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts

Many dry GEFS members and Euro as usual probably too amped. Not saying there’s not a chance of showers.. but that dry HP is going to do everything it can to suppress this 

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