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September vibes - Last 90s for some, 1st frost for others


tamarack
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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Today we had a fall like storm but summer moisture so the storm didn’t pulled in closer . Take away the summer moisture and this would have been that 

See I would’ve thought drier air inland (take away summer moisture) in winter could’ve pushed the precip gradient even further east, not west?

Though mid-level magic might have been put more of a banding structure in Ginxy’s area.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Baroclinic processes would have led to a firehose back to the River in winter?  I’m curious to hear a bit more on this.  There couldn’t have been a gradient in E.MA in the winter?

If you took away the summer moisture content from ocean . This gets pulled west in winter .It had due East inflow . There was quite a bit of convection over the Cape so moisture transport west was robbed. It’s pretty easy to envision a heavy deform band at least to river if this was Jan or Feb 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I would’ve thought drier air inland (take away summer moisture) in winter could’ve pushed the precip gradient even further east, not west?

Though mid-level magic might have been put more of a banding structure in Ginxy’s area.

I’d have to look more at the mid level features, but in general cold season events extend further west. Advective processes driven by temp gradients will do that. We had some of that today, but you could also see how over the last couple of days, the precip bomb was generally closer to the center where higher low level theta-e is. That’s why sometimes you’ll hear us say how precip modeled in July from low pressure will be closer to the low center. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you took away the summer moisture content from ocean . This gets pulled west in winter .It had due East inflow . There was quite a bit of convection over the Cape so moisture transport west was robbed. It’s pretty easy to envision a heavy deform band at least to river if this was Jan or Feb 

Ah ok that deeper convection robbing moisture makes sense to me.  A stronger thermal gradient along the coast too.  I guess I can see it.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Ah ok that deeper convection robbing moisture makes sense to me.  A stronger thermal gradient along the coast too.  I guess I can see it.

In summer whenever I see models dump high qpf from some sort of coastal I always toss because generally convection is going to keep high qpf closer to coast and convection . In winter that’s why I go more expansive.  You’re going to throw moisture well north and west with cold ocean and no convection . Today may have had a few inches up to VT today in winter 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d have to look more at the mid level features, but in general cold season events extend further west. Advective processes driven by temp gradients will do that. We had some of that today, but you could also see how over the last couple of days, the precip bomb was generally closer to the center where higher low level theta-e is. That’s why sometimes you’ll hear us say how precip modeled in July from low pressure will be closer to the low center. 

Good info.  Just trying to visualize it in 3-D… stronger coastal front and then further west better mid-level gradients creating stronger lift to the west?

If visualizing a cross-section of the atmosphere… those stronger/tighter thermal gradients in winter (diluted now) create more of a slope to advect that higher theta-e air up and over?  That advection leading to more widespread precip on the cooler/W/NW side of the system?  Likely more uniform conveyor belts?

 

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good info.  Just trying to visualize it in 3-D… stronger coastal front and then further west better mid-level gradients creating stronger lift to the west?

If visualizing a cross-section of the atmosphere… those stronger/tighter thermal gradients in winter (diluted now) create more of a slope to advect that higher theta-e air up and over?  That advection leading to more widespread precip on the cooler/W/NW side of the system?  Likely more uniform conveyor belts?

 

They create more of a slope effect, but you’d likely have a better dynamic environment. For instance maybe you have +10 at 850 SE of ACK but -12C over FIT. Thermo gradients have a constructive feedback where the jet amplifies and therefore the entire low pressure system amplifies too.  300mb jet streaks that lead to intensifying low pressure are directly related to low level temp gradients.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

They create more of a slope effect, but you’d likely have a better dynamic environment. For instance maybe you have +10 at 850 SE of ACK but -12C over FIT. Thermo gradients have a constructive feedback where the jet amplifies and therefore the entire low pressure system amplifies too.  300mb jet streaks that lead to intensifying low pressure are directly related to low level temp gradients.

That makes sense.  Gradient leading to increased wind speeds throughout the column.  Everything tightens up a bit quicker?

This is the type of discussion I remember when first getting into online weather boards.  Appreciate the knowledge and deeper meteorology.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That makes sense.  Gradient leading to increased wind speeds throughout the column.  Everything tightens up a bit quicker?

This is the type of discussion I remember when first getting into online weather boards.  Appreciate the knowledge and deeper meteorology.

Just picture a death band from Ray to me as Tolland downslopes. Pretty common in big storms often why Tolland maxes at 14 in fluff while we  dig out from 20 to 30 of paste. He will out total us due to higher elevation and more frequent higher ratio snows but as a general rule sans Feb 13 and March 13 deform bands like that 495 to 395 zone.  It's scientifically sound 

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Torch!

Today
Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 66. East wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 50.
Thursday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
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Torch!
Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 66. East wind around 5 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Wednesday Night A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 50. Thursday A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Friday A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Looks like our moosehead trip next weekend will be mostly good weatherwise

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

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Was out in the woods yesterday scouting and setting up a game cam out at a new hunting plot and it is very dry in the woods, The amount of acorns on the ground is crazy as the wind would pick up they were dropping everywhere and their ginormous too.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

From inches to sprinkles on the euro. What a model.

what time range are you referring ?   

- not intending to 'defend' the euro here, but i've noticed that every model has been particularly bad in  the mid+ range for a few days now, in this region:

image.png.f7e30bd47a86a21645ebf22977f5fec0.png

just curious cuz they've all been flip-flopping on placement of ridge and trough nodes in that nebular flow region below the appr polar branch, way more so than normal variability for d5-8 range. 

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57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Was out in the woods yesterday scouting and setting up a game cam out at a new hunting plot and it is very dry in the woods, The amount of acorns on the ground is crazy as the wind would pick up they were dropping everywhere and their ginormous too.

Acorn crop here is strong with giant acorns.   
did last year’s summer of rain help?

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what time range are you referring ?   

- not intending to 'defend' the euro here, but i've noticed that every model has been particularly bad in  the mid+ range for a few days now, in this region:

image.png.f7e30bd47a86a21645ebf22977f5fec0.png

just curious cuz they've all been flip-flopping on placement of ridge and trough nodes in that nebular flow region below the appr polar branch, way more so than normal variability for d5-8 range. 

Just later this week. 

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