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September vibes - Last 90s for some, 1st frost for others


tamarack
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47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Who doesn’t want 70s for weeks?  Those are the most enjoyable temperatures for doing just about anything.  I’ve always thought if we can extend the spring and fall time frame when 70-80F highs are present, you are extending the sweet spot of living comfortably.

Of course it’s boring, but it’s nice.

70s is fine. Starting to lose the allure of 80+ by mid month. But, weather doesn't give a poop about what any of us like lol.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

70s is fine. Starting to lose the allure of 80+ by mid month. But, weather doesn't give a poop about what any of us like lol.

Ha, if it did New England wouldn't have a tree left standing and would have a 50 foot thick glacier snowpack over it.

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is weeks of 80’s, not 70’s. That’s a long period of mid summer warmth deep into Sept and Oct 

Ok.  We'll see how many days your station exceeds 80F between now and October 15th.  You thinking 20+ days of 80F or higher there over the next month based on "weeks of 80s"?

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ok.  We'll see how many days your station exceeds 80F between now and October 15th.  You thinking 20+ days of 80F or higher there over the next month based on "weeks of 80s"?

how dare you try to quantify it with a measurable metric 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ok.  We'll see how many days your station exceeds 80F between now and October 15th.  You thinking 20+ days of 80F or higher there over the next month based on "weeks of 80s"?

He hasn’t been above 78° since 8/28. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are talking about places like BDL, BTV etc . If they’re 85-90.. that’s impressive 

Ok, if they are 85-90F we should be hitting 80F.  If BTV is 88F, then MVL here will be over 80F.  I'd assume if BDL is getting near 90F then you are hitting 80F.

It's like a moving target.  You keep saying 80s but then 85-90F but then you think you won't be 80F.  It's confusing.

How many days will you go above 80F going forward?

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ok, if they are 85-90F we should be hitting 80F.  If BTV is 88F, then MVL here will be over 80F.  I'd assume if BDL is getting near 90F then you are hitting 80F.

It's like a moving target.  You keep saying 80s but then 85-90F but then you think you won't be 80F.  It's confusing.

How many days will you go above 80F going forward?

What do you think will  happen?

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you think will  happen?

I think most folks will largely be in the 70s for highs (can be upper 70s a lot) over the next several weeks… with a few periods of 80s.

The torch spots probably have a few days 85+ but a lot of 80-82F mixed with 77-80F in the means.

I do not think 80s will be the common denominator for weeks on end for most folks.  That doesn’t mean BDL and BOS can’t have 3-4 day stretches.

Though it obviously will vary depending on spot.  There definitely will be some high end days relative to climate… I think my stance is more there are going to be a good deal of 70s mixed in where most people live over the next three weeks.

 

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5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, the GFS has low 80's up into Ontario and Quebec.  That's warm for September.

Yeah I guess I’ll probably get boxed into calling for cold, lol.  There will definitely be 80s at times.  On this forum clarifying is important… or it’ll be “PF said it wouldn’t get above 77F anywhere?”

My only issue was with “weeks of 80s”… not that it won’t hit 80F for a lot of places.

In the means, I think many spots average 70s for highs over the next few weeks… which is still well AN.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I guess I’ll probably get boxed into calling for cold, lol.  There will definitely be 80s at times.  On this forum clarifying is important… or it’ll be “PF said it wouldn’t get above 77F anywhere?”

My only issue was with “weeks of 80s”… not that it won’t hit 80F for a lot of places.

In the means, I think many spots average 70s for highs over the next few weeks… which is still well AN.

I don't really see high DP's so 80F at Stowe for 2 hours in the afternoon is not that outrageous.  Over night lows will probably be closer to normal?

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don't really see high DP's so 80F at Stowe for 2 hours in the afternoon is not that outrageous.  Over night lows will probably be closer to normal?

Yeah that’s a good point.  Those dry air masses here can boost the daytime highs another 2-3 degrees, albeit briefly, when mixing maxes out in the mountain valleys.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d say BDL should go 80+ 8-14 times starting Wednesday thru end of month. 

Yeah ok, then maybe we aren’t that far off and it’s more semantics.

21 days left, 8 of them hitting 80F doesn’t seem like a tough stretch for the torch spot.

I think you hit 80F 2-3 times.

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hm impressive warm signaling continues ...extent of which tbd but 12z gfs over 594 dm ridge node parked over alb isn't very normal post 9/10s

also have to wade thru model amplitude bias in the mid/ext ranges but the consistency in that direction has a lot of aggregated model runs at this point, too

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