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September vibes - Last 90s for some, 1st frost for others


tamarack
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yeah i'd argue the gfs's pattern's likely okay in principle ... but ( what's new - ) it's equally likely to be some 20 or even 30% too amplified.  

this really all but needs to be a built into model evals as a presumptive approach - one that folks need to lens everything through, first, during the ensuing winter too. it might save us from wading through countless X repostings and/or analysis over phantoms.

there are times when an advance lead amplitude are ...something like "more buy-able" but it's rarer.   you know, you wonder what this modern evolution of the technology would look like in the 10 days prior to a 1993 march redux   lol

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19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunny dry . Rotting HP ahead of the soueaster screamer next weekend. Thursday probably has best chance 

BDL may tickle it, but you’re going to need some modeling error to do it on the mastiff. You’re not doing it up there with S-SE flow and sub 10C 850s this time of year. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunny dry . Rotting HP ahead of the soueaster screamer next weekend. Thursday probably has best chance 

Any details about next weekend? It's county fair time and it's much easier if it isn't in pouring rain. Normally at least one day it's bucketing but it would be nice if everything wasn't muddy ruts from trucks and trailers.

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10 minutes ago, monadnocks said:

Any details about next weekend? It's county fair time and it's much easier if it isn't in pouring rain. Normally at least one day it's bucketing but it would be nice if everything wasn't muddy ruts from trucks and trailers.

Euro and GFS both cut a strong low to our west . Saturday looks like the stormiest of the two days 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro and GFS both cut a strong low to our west . Saturday looks like the stormiest of the two days 

That works well, thank you for the info. Load-in is Thursday and load-out on Sunday around 6. Hopefully it will decent on both.

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