tamarack Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 As suggested in the August thread, it's time to talk about the beginning of met autumn. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 47 minutes ago, tamarack said: As suggested in the August thread, it's time to talk about the beginning of met autumn. The best time of year. Warm sun warm surf big waves no tourists punks back in school. Winner. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 i almost wonder if only the nooks and dales of central and northern alpine regions see frost in september, while the majority of us have trouble getting below 40 F heavy car top dewy mornings later in the month. our first convincing 'frost' this year may come from one of those anomalous synoptic october cold balls that drops into the lakes and sets up a minoring snow again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i almost wonder if only the crooks and dales of central and northern alpine regions see frost in september, while the majority of us have trouble getting below 40 F heavy car top dewy mornings later in the month. our first convincing 'frost' this year may come from one of those anomalous synoptic october cold balls that drops into the lakes and sets up a minoring snow again. Gonna even have trouble getting many 40’s earn next week other than extreme sheltered spots. Guidance really backed off the “cool” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna even have trouble getting many 40’s earn next week other than extreme sheltered spots. Guidance really backed off the “cool” Labor Day Sunny, with a high near 66. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 67. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Light west wind. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Light southwest wind. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 3 to 6 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna even have trouble getting many 40’s earn next week other than extreme sheltered spots. Guidance really backed off the “cool” Earlier runs looked like some places up north would hit freezing, not so sure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Just now, DavisStraight said: Earlier runs looked like some places up north would hit freezing, not so sure now. Yeah it's definitely backed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Labor Day Sunny, with a high near 66. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 67. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Light west wind. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Light southwest wind. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 3 to 6 mph That’s nice but what’ are your thoughts and ideas based on today’s guidance and factoring in biases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Still a solid mold down but the week of 40’s has vanished 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s nice but what’ are your thoughts and ideas based on today’s guidance and factoring in biases? next week looks pretty cool.. warming some by the end of the week.. not much has changed with that.. the following week could get a little warmer with dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Next week has potential to be quite cool at night, especially in spots which radiate well but have to monitor the details with the high sliding through 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Let’s get the bugs dormant with a cooldown. I just got back from DC where the last two days had heat indices over 100°, and late summer step down sounds good to me. Truthfully though I don’t care what happens. It’s all tropical all the time now for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Let’s get the bugs dormant with a cooldown. I just got back from DC where the last two days had heat indices over 100°, and late summer step down sounds good to me. Truthfully though I don’t care what happens. It’s all tropical all the time now for me. So you are just sitting around doing nothing? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 9 minutes ago, kdxken said: So you are just sitting around doing nothing? Haha breaks happen every year, even during the peak. Now is the time for rest, football, and cleaning up the yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Guess I’ll uninstall this weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 40 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Guess I’ll uninstall this weekend. Beauty of central air.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna even have trouble getting many 40’s earn next week other than extreme sheltered spots. Guidance really backed off the “cool” MOS has 35° at BML and HIE and a freeze at SLK with 30°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 3 hours ago, dendrite said: MOS has 35° at BML and HIE and a freeze at SLK with 30°. Who lives there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Looks like a warm month incoming. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Who lives there? The same people that live at BDL, MHT, and FIT? 3 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 But yeah, I’d probably lean slightly AN for September simply due to the background warmth. It still doesn’t look overly torchy to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: But yeah, I’d probably lean slightly AN for September simply due to the background warmth. It still doesn’t look overly torchy to me. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 euro buckin for a coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Lala goofus tries to give me a freeze mid month. It’s like there’s a part of the model that wants to believe it’s still 30+ years ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lala goofus tries to give me a freeze mid month. It’s like there’s a part of the model that wants to believe it’s still 30+ years ago. you laugh but i've thought the gfs as suspect along similar for long while. have written tl;dr op eds aplenty in the past. in brief, its individual runs act as though the physical make up cleanses warmth out. either that, ...or in the aggregated sense it ends up with cool surplus. if one bothers to look above the latitude of the perceivable westerlies jet by d7 ...certainly by d10 and beyond, it consummately ends up with the largest region on the polar side when compared to the euro and ggem - a trait that is more or less observable in the gefs comparison, too. obviously okay to be the coolest look but when it always owns that or seems to, that becomes bias. i've never bothered to verify it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you laugh but i've thought the gfs as suspect along similar for long while. have written tl;dr op eds aplenty in the past. in brief, its individual runs act as though the physical make up cleanses warmth out. either that, ...or in the aggregated sense it ends up with cool surplus. if one bothers to look above the latitude of the perceivable westerlies jet by d7 ...certainly by d10 and beyond, it consummately ends up with the largest region on the polar side when compared to the euro and ggem - a trait that is more or less observable in the gefs comparison, too. obviously okay to be the coolest look but when it always owns that or seems to, that becomes bias. i've never bothered to verify it It's interesting how the GFS is with the "extremes". The GFS is known to overmix in certain airmasses and spit out absurd temperatures and it seems to struggle with overmixing too late in the season. Some of the GFS (MOS) numbers this week across the central states were pretty high. Then when it comes to cold it can often overdo the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's interesting how the GFS is with the "extremes". The GFS is known to overmix in certain airmasses and spit out absurd temperatures and it seems to struggle with overmixing too late in the season. Some of the GFS (MOS) numbers this week across the central states were pretty high. Then when it comes to cold it can often overdo the cold. you're looking at this from a discrete thermometer aspect - no comment... but i'm talking about the geopotential medium and the synoptic layouts as it goes out in time. those two aspects are obviously indirectly connected. that cool shot brian's noting of mid month brings multiple inches of ccb cement across nw nf over the top of a high latitude coastal bomb it's a gfs thing it does at the end of august every year. contrasting, in april, it too often attempts to reset the pattern back to february in early may. it may in fact be mores so a transition season problem. the models not really useful beyond 8 or 9 days - not enough so to take it seriously, anyway - but these bias really underscore why that is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 I hope it snows soon 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you're looking at this from a discrete thermometer aspect - no comment... but i'm talking about the geopotential medium and the synoptic layouts as it goes out in time. those two aspects are obviously indirectly connected. that cool shot brian's noting of mid month brings multiple inches of ccb cement across nw nf over the top of a high latitude coastal bomb it's a gfs thing it does at the end of august every year. contrasting, in april, it too often attempts to reset the pattern back to february in early may. it may in fact be mores so a transition season problem. the models not really useful beyond 8 or 9 days - not enough so to take it seriously, anyway - but these bias really underscore why that is It’s like the model reverts to some kind of historical climo for ocean temps, sea ice, etc in the LR. Like if we didn’t royally F up the environment this is what “might have been”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a warm month incoming. Doesn't look too hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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