Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

I saw that the operational Euro got another upgrade a couple days ago.  I didn't realize until today that range-extension was a part of it.  The longer range for 06z and 18z is pretty nice.  The 00z and 12z now going out to 15 days mostly just provides more fantasyland excitement, like the GFS.  The day 8-10 maps are already low accuracy.

[DocATL]

That's a significant and block-y pattern change showing up for next week.

Finally. Good signals across the board. Remains to be seen how long that cut off low spins out west before sweeping east but a good signal for a widespread winter event to follow during Thanksgiving week.


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[TheClimateChanger]

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

Finally. Good signals across the board. Remains to be seen how long that cut off low spins out west before sweeping east but a good signal for a widespread winter event to follow during Thanksgiving week.


.

Euro weeklies continue to cool.

[Baum]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

my guess is southeast Colorado and North New Mexico is already a bust.

[nwohweather]

Posting this for posterity

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Posting this for posterity

WHat hour is that?

[cyclone77]

8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I saw that the operational Euro got another upgrade a couple days ago.  I didn't realize until today that range-extension was a part of it.  The longer range for 06z and 18z is pretty nice.  The 00z and 12z now going out to 15 days mostly just provides more fantasyland excitement, like the GFS.  The day 8-10 maps are already low accuracy.

The last few winters it seemed to overhype the intensity of storm systems in the med/long range. Hopefully it's improved on that.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Checking every model run to see updates on a potential cutoff low next week. Winter must be here.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, Baum said:

my guess is southeast Colorado and North New Mexico is already a bust.

LMAO at those maps. Its been proven every single year that the forecast seasonal snowfall maps (much like the daily snowfall forecasts in storm season) are terrible and unreliable. 

But I especially laugh at the Washington Posts Microsoft Paint map (with no data source) of the difference in snowfall. Not sure if they are bad at math, bad at geography, or just promoting an extremist agenda. Southern Michigan is in the -10 to -20% difference. Every single first order station has seen a RISE between 6-11%. (not listed but Ann Arbor has a rise of +25%). 

DETROIT
1964-1993: 42.0”
1994-2023: 44.6”
Difference: +6%

FLINT
1964-1993: 49.5”
1994-2023: 52.4”
Difference: +6%

SAGINAW
1964-1993: 44.3”
1994-2023: 49.9”
Difference: +11%

GRAND RAPIDS
1964-1993: 71.6”
1994-2023: 77.2”
Difference: +7%

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Checking every model run to see updates on a potential cutoff low next week. Winter must be here.

Isnt that the truth? In winter I check every model, ensemble, weeklies, cfs, etc on a daily basis. When an actual snow event is on the doorstep, im analyzing p-type, looking at every model & short term models total qpf, if theres any ptype issues, last minute shifts north or south, etc.

In summer I only check when severe wx is forecast, or if an unusual hot or cool spell is on the way. 

[TheClimateChanger]

16 hours ago, Baum said:

my guess is southeast Colorado and North New Mexico is already a bust.

The map is for meteorological winter (December - February).

[A-L-E-K]

white rain season approaches, sad

[sbnwx85]

The slight/moderate/high risk maps we’ve been waiting for.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Isnt that the truth? In winter I check every model, ensemble, weeklies, cfs, etc on a daily basis. When an actual snow event is on the doorstep, im analyzing p-type, looking at every model & short term models total qpf, if theres any ptype issues, last minute shifts north or south, etc.

In summer I only check when severe wx is forecast, or if an unusual hot or cool spell is on the way. 

Pretty much the same for me. It’s nice to check the hi-res models in summer to see if I’ll score some convection later in the day. 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The map is for meteorological winter (December - February).

Then it’s useless since there’s a good portion of this country that gets a lot of their snow on either side of meteorological winter. 

[A-L-E-K]

GFS backing away from the big cutoff, the dream is still alive

[Spartman]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

GFS backing away from the big cutoff, the dream is still alive

12z GFS and 12z Euro also lost the cold. On the 12z GFS, the first freeze looks to be now pushed back to the end of the month, putting the latest freeze on record in jeopardy. 

[Lightning]

All the models are now trying to figure out what is going to happen as Sara is no longer going to impact that next system nearly as much as previously expected.  Got to love the chaos 

[Baum]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The map is for meteorological winter (December - February).

It's snow season. 

[DocATL]

12z GFS and 12z Euro also lost the cold. On the 12z GFS, the first freeze looks to be now pushed back to the end of the month, putting the latest freeze on record in jeopardy. 

18z definitely following the trend there. Good set up for the interior northeast with a strongly negative NAO. Will see what December brings!

[RogueWaves]

CPC on the threat towards next weekend:

Detailed Summary

For Sunday November 17 - Thursday November 21: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Friday November 22 - Thursday November 28: Ensemble solutions from the GEFS and ECENS both depict a deep mid-level trough with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes region at the outset of week-2. This system is the product of strong lee cyclogenesis which is expected to bring hazardous weather to the Great Plains during week-1. Model consensus favors the surface low to become occluded and stall early in week-2, lingering over the Great Lakes for several days. Model guidance has consistently indicated this to be a potent storm system with significant potential to generate a variety of hazardous weather conditions spread out over much of the U.S. east of the Rockies.

Ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to favor an occluded low pressure system to settle over Ontario during the week-2 period, resulting in a prolonged period of westerly to northwesterly surface flow over the Great Lakes, which are at or near record high surface temperatures. Cold air aloft results in very steep lapse rates, further contributing to favorable lake-effect snow conditions. Consensus among models is for this favorable setup to be at its strongest for Nov 22-23, therefore a moderate risk for heavy snow is posted for portions of the Great Lakes most prone to lake-effect snow, while a broader slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Great Lakes, much of the Ohio Valley, and portions of the Central Appalachians and Northeast U.S. for Nov 22-26. Surface temperatures are forecast to be near freezing, this increases uncertainty regarding snow totals with rain likely mixing with snow at times, and may make for sloppy conditions across the lake effect snow belts. With a concurrent enhanced potential for high winds the potential for excessive snow accumulations might be further reduced, but instead is replaced with a potential for blizzard conditions.

[hawkeye_wx]

Tonight's ICON, UK, and Euro have all lost the strongly-digging second wave next week, which means no second storm or snow for Iowa.  A second spin-up is delayed until much farther east.

[A-L-E-K]

also means no freeze imby

[Stevo6899]

Interesting developments on most models. Usually this early on in the GL, you need to be on the W/SE of the low to get the snows, but I'd imagine if it wraps up sub 980, there will be some solid deformation snows.

[A-L-E-K]

not to count the chickens before they hatch but looks like we're gonna go from an all-time summer/fall run of beautiful weather and transition p hard into a wet and stormy period with increasing snow shots as time goes on, p good time and rather ideal imo

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Tonight's ICON, UK, and Euro have all lost the strongly-digging second wave next week, which means no second storm or snow for Iowa.  A second spin-up is delayed until much farther east.

First flakes still a few weeks (or more) away.

[A-L-E-K]

6z has the ultimate white rain joker storm

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

6z has the ultimate white rain joker storm

What? No vid for here comes the (white) rain again??

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Well it’s definitely going to rain a lot next week. Will be great to get that moisture before soils freeze up. Feeling much less confident about snow prospects, however a string of highs in the 30s will feel frigid with the autumn we’ve had.