OrdIowPitMsp Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 21 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. 1 hour ago, Brian D said: That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one. I was in the Keweenaw during that storm and the winds being like tropic storm conditions. If I recall correctly the LP went right over Houghton. I also remember being very jealous of the Duluth area's snowfall!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 2 hours ago, Brian D said: That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one. I can only imagine what is was like in Two Harbors. Are there any spotter reports up there? You were just about ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Really cannot believe this consistent warmth. If you would've told me during those brutal winters a decade ago that we would be able to golf until Thanksgiving in Toledo by 2024 I wouldn't have believed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 11 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I can only imagine what is was like in Two Harbors. Are there any spotter reports up there? You were just about ground zero. 36" in TH. 36.9" at DLH. 33" in Brimson. 34.5" in Superior, WI. Interesting that near shore, and inland were pretty much the same. I was working construction that Fall after getting out of the Army that summer, and I remember the snow started falling Halloween evening (on a Thursday). The 1st wave wasn't that bad (12"), and ended Friday am, but when the main wave came in later Friday aftrn as the bombing LP was moving N, it just hammered the hell out of us into Saturday am. (24"). 5.14" SWE, so very wet snow with 30-50+ mph winds. Big drifts. BTW, the LP off the East Coast was the weakening "Perfect Storm" from a couple days prior. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/index.html https://gifmaker.me/ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 8 hours ago, nwohweather said: Really cannot believe this consistent warmth. If you would've told me during those brutal winters a decade ago that we would be able to golf until Thanksgiving in Toledo by 2024 I wouldn't have believed it. November is a crapshoot any given year though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 November is a crapshoot any given year though.The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 1 hour ago, DocATL said: The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm. . Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either. Yeah things seem to get more active for sure. That carrot was briefly dangled earlier this month too. I guess we will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 4 hours ago, DocATL said: The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm. . It does. I just meant November really has nothing to do with the harshness (or lack thereof) of winter. Many of our recent mild winters began with cold/snowy Novembers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed. Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why? November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter. November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter. November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter. November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. Etc etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 idk if it's gonna be your kinda winter mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: idk if it's gonna be your kinda winter mate Im just telling it like it is. Whether its 2011-12 or 2013-14, the same November attitudes prevail. I personally think this will be a typical up and down nina winter, in the end averaging slightly warmer than normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Again, thats all in the end. Wild swings, fun times and frustrating ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday. They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter. They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals. The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking. Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 For the first time we are seeing some evidence of the pattern breaking down on the ensembles. Though to be honest there are not truly cold anomalies really anywhere. It’s weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday. They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter. They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals. The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking. Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana Nice to know others share my thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed. Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why? November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter. November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter. November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter. November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. Etc etc. Halloween is wet/rainy/snowy? Bad sign for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 From earlier run, fantasy land, etc. Among the most insane model depictions I've come across having a 576dm height bubble over southern Greenland at the end of the first week of Nov!!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 occasional weak sauce frontal passage aside, eps says cold isn't happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohioktm250 Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 On 10/27/2024 at 5:18 PM, Spartman said: It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931. I've had multiple nights of frost and one night dipping into the upper 20's. We had frost last night, windows on my truck were icy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 On 10/28/2024 at 7:46 AM, A-L-E-K said: occasional weak sauce frontal passage aside, eps says cold isn't happening Winter cancel. This is our year to break futility records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 Gonna be too wet imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Gonna be too wet imo Yeah I think an above normal temp/precip bet would be solid for N/D/J for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Winter cancel. This is our year to break futility records. I'm sure you were joking, but with an expected wet pattern in the OV/Lakes and Canada much colder than last winter...good luck with that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 The GFS and Euro are showing major rain across the region over the next eight days as a western trough spits out several chunks of energy, with the gulf wide open. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 classic 2024 feast or famine weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931.Yes, this is kind of exciting. The latest first freeze for Chicago is November 24. I think we could beat that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now