Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[sbnwx85]

10 hours ago, Greenwald said:

Would be a perfect drought buster. Fingers crossed.

Sign me up for this storm track in January.

[Lightning]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Yep...the ole "JB pendulum swing".     Does have some truth though.     It's brutal here locally.   They've banned charcoal grilling and all outdoor fires and lots of lawns are going to have to be replaced.   

Drove through Columbus area last weekend on my way to Virginia Tech.  It was definitely brutal from Columbus through West Virginia!!!  

[DocATL]

First ensemble run in weeks to show sustained N to BN temps in the long range. Hopefully not a blip.


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[A-L-E-K]

glad we somehow managed a bunch of rain, extended remains a snoozer

[Spartman]

On 9/23/2024 at 1:47 PM, DocATL said:

First ensemble run in weeks to show sustained N to BN temps in the long range. Hopefully not a blip.


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[DocATL]

Looks like the warmth continues indefinitely…70’s into October for many!! Not terrible!


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[cyclone77]

zzzzzzz X ∞

[DocATL]

zzzzzzz X ∞

Did you sleep through the 18z GFS trying to ruin Halloween?


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[ChiTownSnow]

Lock it in

[Baum]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:09 PM, ChiTownSnow said:

Lock it in

i hope this evaporated.

[cyclone77]

[A-L-E-K]

On 9/27/2024 at 8:08 AM, A-L-E-K said:

glad we somehow managed a bunch of rain, extended remains a snoozer

 

[Lightning]

There might be some hope if this holds: 

[michsnowfreak]

November snow is always exciting because it shows that the new winter is beginning. Theres an age old saying "the weather in November the winter will remember". This saying is just another wives tale, and there really is no correlation from November to the winter. Some years it matches, some years it doesnt.

But I thought this was interesting...Detroit has not seen a below normal snowfall November since 2017. Going back to 2010, a total of 14 years, 10 of the 14 saw Novembers snowfall anamoly NOT correlate to the winter that followed.

[A-L-E-K]

this looks p fire to me

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

this looks p fire to me

 

 

And add in the above avg precip....pretty good look for the Lakes.

[TheClimateChanger]

51 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

this looks p fire to me

 

 

Not bad. Would like to see the oranges and reds shift a bit further northwest.

[Chicago Storm]

CPC outlooks are useless. They're always "forecasting" what a certain ENSO pattern should look like.

Long range forecasts months in advance are useless in general.

[A-L-E-K]

hard 2 argue

[Baum]

"Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then"

[A-L-E-K]

p beefy for an ensemble 240 hr mean, ez to see why mid range forecasts are warm

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

p beefy for an ensemble 240 hr mean, ez to see why mid range forecasts are warm

that will only further amplify the ongoing drought conditions. Looks dry for the foreseeable future once again. This really has to be one of the sunniest autumns I can ever recall, just wall to wall. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Remember precipitation? Because I sure don’t 

[Baum]

13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Remember precipitation? Because I sure don’t 

Thank goodness for lake effect rain. Who knew?

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

Thank goodness for lake effect rain. Who knew?

Ended up being too far west for that, unfortunately 

[Baum]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Ended up being too far west for that, unfortunately 

i know. 

[DocATL]

If ensembles are right we may be headed for some impressive warmth to close out the month.


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[A-L-E-K]

16 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Remember precipitation? Because I sure don’t 

Managed like 2 inches of lake effect rain, v lucky

[cyclone77]

Looks like Sante Fe around here.  And we were one of the lucky ones a few weeks back to get over a half inch.  Pretty sad two month stretch we have here.

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like Sante Fe around here.  And we were one of the lucky ones a few weeks back to get over a half inch.  Pretty sad two month stretch we have here.

I hit a literal tumble weed in the road yesterday, lol