Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Geoboy645]

After experiencing the 5th wettest summer on record, we are now in abnormally dry conditions. Talk about a change.

[rainsucks]

On 9/11/2024 at 6:14 AM, A-L-E-K said:

idk mate

You and @Baum can go check out the temperature forecast contests in the weather forecasting sub if you want instead of being snarky, imbecilic assholes. The scoring speaks for itself.

[DocATL]

I guess the ensembles progressing from blowtorch to widespread AN by month’s end is noteworthy.


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[Chicago Storm]

56 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

You and @Baum can go check out the temperature forecast contests in the weather forecasting sub if you want instead of being snarky, imbecilic assholes. The scoring speaks for itself.

lol

[Baum]

16 hours ago, rainsucks said:

You and @Baum can go check out the temperature forecast contests in the weather forecasting sub if you want instead of being snarky, imbecilic assholes. The scoring speaks for itself.

 

Sidenote: I'll check back in around Halloween in the hopes your screaming warm and dry for December. You can't take this stuff too seriously, my friend, sometimes you have to have a little self deprecation and chalk it up to fun. Though I am waiting with baited breath for you early winter calls...

As for current trends. There is nothing better than 80's in September. Sun not as hot, and cools off quickly in the evenings. So I'll take this current stretch as a win.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

 

Sidenote: I'll check back in around Halloween in the hopes your screaming warm and dry for December. You can't take this stuff too seriously, my friend, sometimes you have to have a little self deprecation and chalk it up to fun. Though I am waiting with baited breath for you early winter calls...

As for current trends. There is nothing better than 80's in September. Sun not as hot, and cools off quickly in the evenings. So I'll take this current stretch as a win.

I'd be good with this pattern all the way through mid-October, damned the drought.

[A-L-E-K]

Just now, IWXwx said:

I'd be good with this pattern all the way through mid-November, damned the drought.

fyp

no meaningful snow chances until then anyways, might as well be beautiful

[Lightning]

Wow.  Just drove the other day to Virginia Tech.  Drought conditions just starting the past couple weeks IMBY.  From Columbus OH to Blacksburg VA, the drought is crazy severe.   Especially southern OH and West Virginia where trees are so stressed they are changing colors already with several trees dropping leaves.  

[DocATL]

I'd be good with this pattern all the way through mid-October, damned the drought.

I’m with you. Just annoyed they closed our community pool after LDW. So arcane.


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[cyclone77]

zzzzz

[A-L-E-K]

entering our mega drought era?

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/13/2024 at 2:21 PM, Lightning said:

Wow.  Just drove the other day to Virginia Tech.  Drought conditions just starting the past couple weeks IMBY.  From Columbus OH to Blacksburg VA, the drought is crazy severe.   Especially southern OH and West Virginia where trees are so stressed they are changing colors already with several trees dropping leaves.  

One for the record books.

At Columbus, it's been the 5th warmest on record since June 1 (by mean maximum temperature - a better measure of drought stress than average temperature) and easily the driest on record - nearly 0.6" less than the 1930 drought.

Mean High Temperature

Precipitation

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One for the record books.

At Columbus, it's been the 5th warmest on record since June 1 (by mean maximum temperature - a better measure of drought stress than average temperature) and easily the driest on record - nearly 0.6" less than the 1930 drought.

Mean High Temperature

Precipitation

I knew that meant the avg temp ranked lower lol. Columbus avg temp for the period 15th warmest Jun 1 - Sept at 15. Drought would tend to make both the afternoons hotter, and the nights cooler. Id be interested to hear from @buckeye or someone else in the Columbus area if the thermometer seems to run hot for maxes. That happened for years at Ypsilanti (YIP), west of DTW. Its not a first order station so wasnt given priority, but it was finally fixed last year and now runs more in sync with Ann Arbor and DTW.

Interesting that Columbus ranked so high. Cincinnati, further south and more in the drought, only ranked as a tie for 23rd warmest high temp Jun 1 - Sept 15, and tied for 41st warmest overall.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I knew that meant the avg temp ranked lower lol. Columbus avg temp for the period 15th warmest Jun 1 - Sept at 15. Drought would tend to make both the afternoons hotter, and the nights cooler. Id be interested to hear from @buckeye or someone else in the Columbus area if the thermometer seems to run hot for maxes. That happened for years at Ypsilanti (YIP), west of DTW. Its not a first order station so wasnt given priority, but it was finally fixed last year and now runs more in sync with Ann Arbor and DTW.

Interesting that Columbus ranked so high. Cincinnati, further south and more in the drought, only ranked as a tie for 23rd warmest high temp Jun 1 - Sept 15, and tied for 41st warmest overall.

That's not true. Cincinnati is in D1 - moderate drought, while Columbus is in D3 - extreme drought.

[TheClimateChanger]

But anyways, the thermometer seems to be working fine. High temperatures are right in line with the nearest sites. Low temperatures are higher due to urbanization.

Here's September to date:

Columbus Int'l

Ohio State University

Newark, Ohio

Lancaster, Ohio

Zanesville, Ohio

[DocATL]

entering our mega drought era?

Unless we get some wave-breaker typhoon on the other side of the world to shake things up.


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[Geoboy645]

To put in perspective how much of a flip this has been for precipitation. In the two months from 5/16-7/16, Madison recorded 20.87 inches of rain (11.22 in to 32.09 in). In the two months from 7/16 to today, we have recorded 3.82 inches (32.09 in to 35.91 inches). 

[A-L-E-K]

when things flip they tend to flip hard the other way, so maybe another 2-3 months of drought then we can go nuts

[TheClimateChanger]

23 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

But anyways, the thermometer seems to be working fine. High temperatures are right in line with the nearest sites. Low temperatures are higher due to urbanization.

Here's September to date:

Columbus Int'l

Ohio State University

Newark, Ohio

Lancaster, Ohio

Zanesville, Ohio

Decided to take a look at how these diurnal ranges compare to prior months. Obviously with the caveat that two more weeks are left in the month, so they will probably go down a bit. But at the moment, they would rank among the largest on record at New Philadelphia (records to 1948) and Zanesville (records to 1895). Here are all instances of a 30F+ diurnal range at both sites, with September 2024's data to date highlighted in bold.

There has not been a mean monthly diurnal range at or above 30F at either site since June 1988. Note that the old data has somewhat of a bias towards larger diurnal ranges, since the LiG/CRS tends to result in somewhat higher highs and slightly lower lows than modern automated equipment.  For cooperative data in the threaded record, a reset time in afternoon would also result in a slightly larger diurnal range since it has a greater positive bias on mean maximum temperature.

New Philadelphia

1. October 1963, 36.2F
2. September 2024, 33.0F
3. September 1963, 32.3F
4. October 1964, 31.4F
5. June 1988, 31.3F
6. August 1962, 30.7F
7. July 1965, 30.7F
8. May 1977, 30.7F
9. September 1985, 30.4F

Zanesville

1. October 1963, 35.3F
2. May 1941, 34.7F
3. September 1939, 33.6F
4. September 1897, 33.3F
5. October 1938, 32.8F
6. September 2024, 32.7F
7. May 1939, 32.3F
8. October 1964, 32.1F
9. April 1941, 32.0F
10. September 1952, 31.5F
11. October 1953, 31.4F
12. September 1941, 31.2F
13. June 1936, 31.2F
14. May 1936, 31.1F
15. September 1963, 30.5F
16. July 1936, 30.5F
17. September 1908, 30.5F
18. June 1988, 30.4F
19. September 1953, 30.4F
20. August 1899, 30.2F
21. July 1944, 30.1F
22. September 1943, 30.0F

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

when things flip they tend to flip hard the other way, so maybe another 2-3 months of drought then we can go nuts

Dry Falls and Wet (& snowy) winters are pretty common in a Nina or nina-like state, but of course drought is another thing.

[Lightning]

Models final hint at something more than dry and warm.  Wouldn't surprise me to get a week or so of action to go right back to a dry and mild pattern.  Of course it would surprise me if something else happens 

[IWXwx]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Dry Falls and Wet (& snowy) winters are pretty common in a Nina or nina-like state, but of course drought is another thing.

Has any one done research concerning drought conditions going into winter and the resulting winter outcomes in our subforum?

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Has any one done research concerning drought conditions going into winter and the resulting winter outcomes in our subforum?

Not sure but I doubt it. Its hard to determine "drought" when looking at old weather records. For instance, we are talking drought in SE MI after several very dry weeks but much of the area had way above avg summer rainfall. So imo Its hard to call this a drought for here.

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure but I doubt it. Its hard to determine "drought" when looking at old weather records. For instance, we are talking drought in SE MI after several very dry weeks but much of the area had way above avg summer rainfall. So imo Its hard to call this a drought for here.

I understand. You guys up there are in good shape compared to us. I am basing drought on the National Drought Mitigation Center data. The moderate drought area along in the Ohio River Valley and along the IN/OH line will spread north and west quickly in the next week and will likely encompass most or all of Ohio (of course), Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, and maybe Iowa and Southern Wisconsin.

That would be a large area of drought if it holds or intensifies.  I am just curious how it would affect our weather this winter. Does drought beget drought in the winter?

[IWXwx]

Also, looking at the national map, with drought in Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama, how will this affect moisture advection from the Gulf? Or from the southwest for that matter?  I really don't know much about this, if anyone can help. Besides, someone's gotta pick up the ball from Hoosier.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Also, looking at the national map, with drought in Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama, how will this affect moisture advection from the Gulf? Or from the southwest for that matter?  I really don't know much about this, if anyone can help. Besides, someone's gotta pick up the ball from Hoosier.

Those areas should see drought improvement in the update this week due to the rains from Francine. Memphis had 6.52" of rain over the past week.

[Greenwald]

Would be a perfect drought buster. Fingers crossed.

[A-L-E-K]

lock it in

[buckeye]

On 9/17/2024 at 7:38 AM, A-L-E-K said:

when things flip they tend to flip hard the other way, so maybe another 2-3 months of drought then we can go nuts

Yep...the ole "JB pendulum swing".     Does have some truth though.     It's brutal here locally.   They've banned charcoal grilling and all outdoor fires and lots of lawns are going to have to be replaced.   

[A-L-E-K]

bummer but good opportunity to rip up and replace with more drought tolerant natives imo