Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Brian D]

18 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Well it’s definitely going to rain a lot next week. Will be great to get that moisture before soils freeze up. Feeling much less confident about snow prospects, however a string of highs in the 30s will feel frigid with the autumn we’ve had. 

Sure has been nice. TH, tho, is 2nd driest (2.38") Sept 1-Nov 16 behind 1976 (2.05"), so the rains will be really nice. As much as I hate the cloudy, overcast stretches when the days are short, the precip will be most welcome. Temps looking to go back to more seasonable levels, so I actually may have a chance to measure some white stuff in a week. 

[nwohweather]

The Euro maps are just wild. 8-16" for NW Ohio 

[Frog Town]

7 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

The Euro maps are just wild. 8-16" for NW Ohio 

Must be the new upgrade!  I'll take it.  

[Frog Town]

0Z and 12Z Euro's are almost carbon copy's, weird.  

[Chinook]

Some GEFS ensemble members and the ECMWF have a low pressure near Toledo or Detroit with snow to the south. I expect that models will take a few days to come to agreement on this dynamic system

[SchaumburgStormer]

Euro has been such dogshit the last few years. Would love to have a flag plant model again 

[sbnwx85]

Whatever is falling from the sky is going to be coming down sideways for a while thanks to some strong winds.

[Baum]

First mention of snow in the  forecast for the season. The lifelong addiction continues.

[A-L-E-K]

On 11/15/2024 at 6:24 AM, A-L-E-K said:

not to count the chickens before they hatch but looks like we're gonna go from an all-time summer/fall run of beautiful weather and transition p hard into a wet and stormy period with increasing snow shots as time goes on, p good time and rather ideal imo

Extended looks active 

[nwohweather]

@OHweather How long did it take to write that AFD?  Felt like it was back to the days of your blog with that prose you had going there

[Frog Town]

Not often you see a dry slot and warm tongue with this orientation!!

 

[Malacka11]

29 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Not often you see a dry slot and warm tongue with this orientation!!

 

Seeing the Euro in TT's precip type view is like something out of one of those deja vu/dream moments where you think you're losing it. Can't believe the day has actually arrived 

[OHweather]

6 hours ago, nwohweather said:

@OHweather How long did it take to write that AFD?  Felt like it was back to the days of your blog with that prose you had going there

About an hour and 15 mins lol. The crazy solutions have backed off, but it's looking like there should be snow flying Thursday into Thursday night as moisture wraps back in from the north/northwest. Maybe parts of Ohio can see a light accumulation. It's nice to have a little bit of snow to look at, even if there's still nothing extremely exciting on the horizon. 

[Malacka11]

Love to see (with my exceedingly amateur eyes) that maybe if there's an event or two somewhere in the subforum over the next few weeks, it's at least possible that there will be a little more cold air to work with than last year's screw over events

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Love to see (with my exceedingly amateur eyes) that maybe if there's an event or two somewhere in the subforum over the next few weeks, it's at least possible that there will be a little more cold air to work with than last year's screw over events

18z GFS has me below zero on Black Friday. Don’t think it will be that cold, but nonetheless great to see NW flow showing up instead of relentless pacific air masses. 

[A-L-E-K]

euro with a tday major for many

[nwohweather]

On 11/18/2024 at 8:15 PM, OHweather said:

About an hour and 15 mins lol. The crazy solutions have backed off, but it's looking like there should be snow flying Thursday into Thursday night as moisture wraps back in from the north/northwest. Maybe parts of Ohio can see a light accumulation. It's nice to have a little bit of snow to look at, even if there's still nothing extremely exciting on the horizon. 

And are we shocked? November is rarely ever cash in time for this part of the country. I will say it's good to see this pattern putting snow cover down across WCAN, Montana & the Dakotas. 

I'd be pretty excited if I were in IL/WI/IA based on what the models are showing for Thanksgiving, that is one solid storm for this region. Sure the current solutions show a solid strike for this area but how often does a Panhandle Hook actually roll through Northern Ohio?

[Spartman]

43 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro with a tday major for many

We're dreamin' of a White Thanksgiving.....

[WestMichigan]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro with a tday major for many

I-80/90 and would be a total disaster if that happens.

[Lightning]

29 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I-80/90 and would be a total disaster if that happens.

I80/90 in Chicago area would be a total disaster even if it doesn't happen 

[Malacka11]

Between the Euro updates, the new gif reactions, and actually having shit to watch before mid January this winter is already off to a good start in the gradebooks 

[Malacka11]

Also hoping this first event is setting a trend and not just burning through our luck here in chi-land

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Also hoping this first event is setting a trend and not just burning through our luck here in chi-land

Just curious, what trend are you alluding to? That the models dont lose a system?

[Malacka11]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious, what trend are you alluding to? That the models dont lose a system?

That, as well as it trending very well for mby and the ceiling slightly creeping up too, at least locally. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

That, as well as it trending very well for mby and the ceiling slightly creeping up too, at least locally. 

Ah ok. Trended away from here lol. But it is nice to see RELATIVE consistency with the models days out. Hopefully a sign!

[Malacka11]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ah ok. Trended away from here lol. But it is nice to see RELATIVE consistency with the models days out. Hopefully a sign!

Yeah, it'll be fun to see how things hold together for what hopefully stays a legit chance around Thanksgiving

[Frog Town]

Pattern looks pretty sweet for the OV late next week.  Always worry about too much suppression in these set ups, but not sure about the SE Ridge flexing in these set ups.  Would love to see a spread the wealth system but it's a weird time of year to get something like that..

[Stevo6899]

6 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Pattern looks pretty sweet for the OV late next week.  Always worry about too much suppression in these set ups, but not sure about the SE Ridge flexing in these set ups.  Would love to see a spread the wealth system but it's a weird time of year to get something like that..

Obviously still a ways to go but it's definitely rare to see suppression this early. Usually for the Great Lakes region we have to let a few wrapped up storms travel through the Upper Midwest before we gotta worry about misses south. My guess is the nao is tanking during this timeframe.

[Lightning]

5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Obviously still a ways to go but it's definitely rare to see suppression this early. Usually for the Great Lakes region we have to let a few wrapped up storms travel through the Upper Midwest before we gotta worry about misses south. My guess is the nao is tanking during this timeframe.

Yeah I have noticed NAO in Nov/Dec does not fully act like the NAO of Feb/March with the suppression.  It is pretty darn negative right now.  If it was March this current storm would have likely been down in Cincinnati area southward!!  On the other hand if I recall correctly several of our better storms, in the lower lakes, the NAO tends to be around 0 to -1 (Dec-March); this is something I discussed with Harry several years ago.  The NAO average forecast is looking pretty good going into next week.