Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Lightning]

5 hours ago, DocATL said:

We can hope for the lower amplitude squiggles in phase 2-3. Just seems like we go low amplitude in the colder phases and high in warm ones. But something has got to give.


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Phase 2-3 are not cold phases in November & December while phases 7-8-1 are best for cold in November & December for MW & GLs.  I put the MJO temp correlation for OND below.

2 hours ago, roardog said:

The maritime continent phases are the warm phases this time of year. It's pretty much the opposite of that right now.

Correct!

 

[DocATL]

Correct!
 

Agree with you…currently not a warm
Phase though we are decently above normal. Headed to warmer phases mid month.


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[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

Agree with you…currently not a warm
Phase though we are decently above normal. Headed to warmer phases mid month.


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Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase.  Sounds pretty straight forward.  

 

In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter.  I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call.  I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous.  Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust.  All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting.  If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.  

[DocATL]

Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase.  Sounds pretty straight forward.  
 
In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter.  I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call.  I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous.  Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust.  All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting.  If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.  

I mean for what it’s worth these projections change daily. Also we aren’t dealing with absolutes. The pendulum will eventually swing.


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[Lightning]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

Agree with you…currently not a warm
Phase though we are decently above normal. Headed to warmer phases mid month.


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We definitely 'cooled' from where we were.  Obviously there was not a cross polar flow but rather Canadian air that moved in the end of last week.   The reality was that Canada was not 'cold' just cooler.  Now the MJO is going down to COD.  Our current pattern is reflecting that and the Pacific jet is ruling the roost!!  Slam storms into west coast of Canada and we are not going to be cold!!

MJO is my go to metrics when moderate/strong for the pattern (but you surely can't ignore other factors).  The MJO near/in COD means look elsewhere for what driving the pattern.

[A-L-E-K]

ready for some cutters

[roardog]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

ready for some cutters

Yeah. The pattern coming up looks like a good recipe for one of those Colorado low bombs, especially once the Aleutian ridging goes up and allows Arctic air to clash with the already established warm air over the eastern half of the country. Plains blizzard and Midwest severe weather outbreak. 

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase.  Sounds pretty straight forward.  

 

In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter.  I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call.  I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous.  Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust.  All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting.  If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.  

I dont know which winter it was as I dont remember either being hyped up. 2018-19 winter was close to avg temp-wise. Youre probably thinking of 2019-20. We started at Detroit with the biggest November snowstorm on record (9.2" on Nov 11th) and then saw the earliest single digit temperature on record (Nov 13th)....and then proceeded to have the 11th warmest winter on record.

Ive said it a hundred times but if need be Ill say it a hundred more - what happens in November has NOTHING to do with what will happen in winter. Historically there is no correlation. The past decade, theres actually been a very strong correlation to the weather pattern of November being OPOSITTE of what winter ends up bringing. But again, its a total toss up.

[DocATL]

I dont know which winter it was as I dont remember either being hyped up. 2018-19 winter was close to avg temp-wise. Youre probably thinking of 2019-20. We started at Detroit with the biggest November snowstorm on record (9.2" on Nov 11th) and then saw the earliest single digit temperature on record (Nov 13th)....and then proceeded to have the 11th warmest winter on record.
Ive said it a hundred times but if need be Ill say it a hundred more - what happens in November has NOTHING to do with what will happen in winter. Historically there is no correlation. The past decade, theres actually been a very strong correlation to the weather pattern of November being OPOSITTE of what winter ends up bringing. But again, its a total toss up.

Good stuff here! Fully agree November doesn’t predict the winter. I think it’s just hard to visualize a cold winter right now where we’ve basically had consistent ridging in the Midwest for the better part of 6 weeks without any sustained signal of it changing. This is during a year that is already one of the warmest ever recorded.


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[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, DocATL said:

Good stuff here! Fully agree November doesn’t predict the winter. I think it’s just hard to visualize a cold winter right now where we’ve basically had consistent ridging in the Midwest for the better part of 6 weeks without any sustained signal of it changing. This is during a year that is already one of the warmest ever recorded.


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Thanks! To further clarify, I'm not saying this winter will be cold. Just that if it's mild, it'll have nothing to do with the fact that November was very mild lol. I do think the end result will be milder than avg but not crazy. Im definitely liking the big cold that's forecast to build into canada once winter gets going, but it does look like right now, once again December will be the least wintry of the 3 winter months (not that their won't be any fun in December, just looks least favored).

 

Going back to 2010, you can see how commonly the winter did NOT remember November lol. 

Nov 2023: -0.1F Winter +6.4F
Nov 2022: +2.1F Winter +5.0F
Nov 2021: -1.8F Winter -0.4F
Nov 2020: +4.5F Winter +0.3F
Nov 2019: -5.4F Winter +3.8F
Nov 2018: -4.1F Winter +0.5F
Nov 2017: -0.8F Winter -1.1F
Nov 2016: +5.5F Winter +4.1F
Nov 2015: +4.8F Winter +5.1F
Nov 2014: -5.4F Winter -5.1F
Nov 2013: -3.7F Winter -8.5F
Nov 2012: -0.8F Winter +2.3F
Nov 2011: +5.4F Winter +4.6F
Nov 2010: +0.8F Winter -4.3F

 

[TheClimateChanger]

"What happens in November, the winter will remember."

[DocATL]

Thanks! To further clarify, I'm not saying this winter will be cold. Just that if it's mild, it'll have nothing to do with the fact that November was very mild lol. I do think the end result will be milder than avg but not crazy. Im definitely liking the big cold that's forecast to build into canada once winter gets going, but it does look like right now, once again December will be the least wintry of the 3 winter months (not that their won't be any fun in December, just looks least favored).
 
Going back to 2010, you can see how commonly the winter did NOT remember November lol. 

Nov 2023: -0.1F Winter +6.4FNov 2022: +2.1F Winter +5.0FNov 2021: -1.8F Winter -0.4FNov 2020: +4.5F Winter +0.3FNov 2019: -5.4F Winter +3.8FNov 2018: -4.1F Winter +0.5FNov 2017: -0.8F Winter -1.1FNov 2016: +5.5F Winter +4.1FNov 2015: +4.8F Winter +5.1FNov 2014: -5.4F Winter -5.1FNov 2013: -3.7F Winter -8.5FNov 2012: -0.8F Winter +2.3FNov 2011: +5.4F Winter +4.6FNov 2010: +0.8F Winter -4.3F

 

Interestingly with the exception of 2020 the markedly warm Novembers led to warm winters.

Doesn’t mean it won’t snow but we might be > +7F


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[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

"What happens in November, the winter will remember."

Cant wait for juiced snowfall maps that dwindle qpf down all the way up to the event. 

[michsnowfreak]

55 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Interestingly with the exception of 2020 the markedly warm Novembers led to warm winters.

Doesn’t mean it won’t snow but we might be > +7F


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HIGHLY doubt we will be >+7F this winter (Nov a slight possibility). 

Yes, the 3 instances of warm Novembers led to warm winters, but the moral of the story is there is no overall correlation. There have been more cold than warm Novembers lately (8 of the last 12 were colder than avg), so its not an even playing field. A better way of looking at it...

2023: Near avg November led to very mild winter

2022: Mild November led to very mild winter

2021: Cold November led to near avg winter

2020: Very mild November led to near avg winter

2019: Very cold November led to very mild winter

2018: Very cold November led to near avg winter

2017: Cold November led to cold winter

2016: Very mild November led to very mild winter

2015: Very mild November led to very mild winter

2014: Very cold November led to very cold winter

2013: Very cold November led to very cold winter

2012: Cold November led to mild winter

2011: Very mild November led to very mild winter

2010: Mild November led to very cold winter

EDIT-

For the hell of it, I ran the top 20 coldest & warmest Novembers...
Of the top 20 coldest Novembers, 6 of the winters were milder than avg, 14 were colder.
Of the top 20 warmest Novembers, 10 of the winters were milder than avg, 10 were colder
 

[Stevo6899]

While there's a chance this winter is colder than avg, I feel like we're gonna be threading the needle all winter with snow events. I think its been 5+ years since we've had a legit overall cold/snowy winter. Of course everyone's criteria for legit is different...

[Lightning]

3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

While there's a chance this winter is colder than avg, I feel like we're gonna be threading the needle all winter with snow events. I think its been 5+ years since we've had a legit overall cold/snowy winter. Of course everyone's criteria for legit is different...

If you are looking for all three month DJF to be below normal temps and above normal snowfall.  Yep it has been over 5 years as the last below normal December's was 2017.  2017-18 was a remarkable winter around here as Flint broke it all time record snowfall. 

I can say my last decent winter IMBY was 21-22 was well above normal snowfall with both Jan. 22 and Feb. 22 being cold and snowy. 

Keep in mind lots of cold doesn't always equate to lots of snow.  1995-96 with it cold DJFM (all 4 months were below normal).  Yet snowfall was abysmal with most of it coming in March.   Detroit ended '95-'96 with 27.6" which is just a few inches more snow that Super Nino winter of 1997-98 @23.5" and last year's 22.6".  

Like you, I much prefer it to be both cold and snowy   However I will take mild and snowy/stormy over cold and dry!!

[cyclone77]

Storm system next Tue/Wed looking interesting.  Severe weather looking likely if trends continue.

[A-L-E-K]

[Stevo6899]

22 hours ago, Lightning said:

If you are looking for all three month DJF to be below normal temps and above normal snowfall.  Yep it has been over 5 years as the last below normal December's was 2017.  2017-18 was a remarkable winter around here as Flint broke it all time record snowfall. 

I can say my last decent winter IMBY was 21-22 was well above normal snowfall with both Jan. 22 and Feb. 22 being cold and snowy. 

Keep in mind lots of cold doesn't always equate to lots of snow.  1995-96 with it cold DJFM (all 4 months were below normal).  Yet snowfall was abysmal with most of it coming in March.   Detroit ended '95-'96 with 27.6" which is just a few inches more snow that Super Nino winter of 1997-98 @23.5" and last year's 22.6".  

Like you, I much prefer it to be both cold and snowy   However I will take mild and snowy/stormy over cold and dry!!

Agreed on the milder/snowy/stormy. The big snows almost always have the rain/snow line nearby. 

[cyclone77]

On 11/6/2024 at 6:35 PM, cyclone77 said:

Storm system next Tue/Wed looking interesting.  Severe weather looking likely if trends continue.

Trending in the other direction now.  Looking pretty wussy at this point.

[A-L-E-K]

gfs with a bonkers cutoff solution playing out

[A-L-E-K]

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS with widespread 4"-5" (rain) across IA into N IL from the cutoff

[Chicago Storm]

That's a significant and block-y pattern change showing up for next week.

[A-L-E-K]

very modern era

[RogueWaves]

I want a blocky pattern cut-off spinner over the Lakes mid-winter Feb '85 style. 

[Chinook]

College of Dupage now has the ECMWF to 360 hours

[WestMichigan]

Pivotal Weather also has the ECMWF out to 360.  Looks like everyone has picked up on the change.

[nvck]

Euro ensemble with a decent signal for something to happen on or around the 23rd, at least in my area. GEFS  doesn't go out quite as far, but seems to be picking up on the same system.

[RCNYILWX]

Seems like a good time to make my annual return to discuss the pattern and winter events (with a general emphasis on the LOT CWA). First opportunity for wraparound snow looks like late next Wednesday into early Thursday on the early end of the spectrum, along the lines of the 12z GFS.

The 00z ECMWF had a slower progression of the cutoff low, which would shift back the colder air and snow chances a couple days. We'll see shortly if that changes at all on the 12z Euro.

Also found out the 06z and 18z operational ECMWF runs go out to 144 hours now.