OrdIowPitMsp Posted Wednesday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:52 PM The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted Wednesday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:16 PM 21 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted Thursday at 12:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:39 AM 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. 1 hour ago, Brian D said: That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one. I was in the Keweenaw during that storm and the winds being like tropic storm conditions. If I recall correctly the LP went right over Houghton. I also remember being very jealous of the Duluth area's snowfall!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted Thursday at 01:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:46 AM 2 hours ago, Brian D said: That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one. I can only imagine what is was like in Two Harbors. Are there any spotter reports up there? You were just about ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted Thursday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:12 PM Really cannot believe this consistent warmth. If you would've told me during those brutal winters a decade ago that we would be able to golf until Thanksgiving in Toledo by 2024 I wouldn't have believed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted Thursday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:14 PM 11 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I can only imagine what is was like in Two Harbors. Are there any spotter reports up there? You were just about ground zero. 36" in TH. 36.9" at DLH. 33" in Brimson. 34.5" in Superior, WI. Interesting that near shore, and inland were pretty much the same. I was working construction that Fall after getting out of the Army that summer, and I remember the snow started falling Halloween evening (on a Thursday). The 1st wave wasn't that bad (12"), and ended Friday am, but when the main wave came in later Friday aftrn as the bombing LP was moving N, it just hammered the hell out of us into Saturday am. (24"). 5.14" SWE, so very wet snow with 30-50+ mph winds. Big drifts. BTW, the LP off the East Coast was the weakening "Perfect Storm" from a couple days prior. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/index.html https://gifmaker.me/ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Thursday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:23 PM 8 hours ago, nwohweather said: Really cannot believe this consistent warmth. If you would've told me during those brutal winters a decade ago that we would be able to golf until Thanksgiving in Toledo by 2024 I wouldn't have believed it. November is a crapshoot any given year though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Thursday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:55 PM November is a crapshoot any given year though.The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Thursday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:19 PM 1 hour ago, DocATL said: The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm. . Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Thursday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:40 PM Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either. Yeah things seem to get more active for sure. That carrot was briefly dangled earlier this month too. I guess we will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:53 AM 4 hours ago, DocATL said: The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm. . It does. I just meant November really has nothing to do with the harshness (or lack thereof) of winter. Many of our recent mild winters began with cold/snowy Novembers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:12 PM With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed. Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why? November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter. November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter. November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter. November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. Etc etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Friday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:18 PM idk if it's gonna be your kinda winter mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 PM 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: idk if it's gonna be your kinda winter mate Im just telling it like it is. Whether its 2011-12 or 2013-14, the same November attitudes prevail. I personally think this will be a typical up and down nina winter, in the end averaging slightly warmer than normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Again, thats all in the end. Wild swings, fun times and frustrating ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Friday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:44 PM The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday. They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter. They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals. The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking. Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Friday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:11 PM For the first time we are seeing some evidence of the pattern breaking down on the ensembles. Though to be honest there are not truly cold anomalies really anywhere. It’s weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:02 PM 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday. They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter. They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals. The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking. Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana Nice to know others share my thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Friday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:23 PM 8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed. Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why? November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter. November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter. November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter. November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. Etc etc. Halloween is wet/rainy/snowy? Bad sign for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted Saturday at 05:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 05:03 AM From earlier run, fantasy land, etc. Among the most insane model depictions I've come across having a 576dm height bubble over southern Greenland at the end of the first week of Nov!!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Saturday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:04 PM . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Sunday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:18 PM It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago occasional weak sauce frontal passage aside, eps says cold isn't happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohioktm250 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 18 hours ago, Spartman said: It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931. I live up in Miami County. I've had multiple nights of frost and one night dipping into the upper 20's. We had frost last night, windows on my truck were icy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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