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Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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21 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. 

E32C53C8-855B-4319-8562-1F0C2F72298D.jpeg

That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one.

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

The annual mentions of Halloween 1991 have begun. If there was one historic storm I could experience that might be it. 

E32C53C8-855B-4319-8562-1F0C2F72298D.jpeg

 

1 hour ago, Brian D said:

That storm was definitely historic. That set a bar for storms around the end of Oct into early Nov. I partied hard during that one.

I was in the Keweenaw during that storm and the winds being like tropic storm conditions.  If I recall correctly the LP went right over Houghton.  I also remember being very jealous of the Duluth area's snowfall!!! :lol:  

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11 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I can only imagine what is was like in Two Harbors. Are there any spotter reports up there? You were just about ground zero. 

0902E6A2-FC5C-41D7-945D-082E2E8994C2.png

36" in TH. 36.9" at DLH. 33" in Brimson. 34.5" in Superior, WI. Interesting that near shore, and inland were pretty much the same. I was working construction that Fall after getting out of the Army that summer, and I remember the snow started falling Halloween evening (on a Thursday). The 1st wave wasn't that bad (12"), and ended Friday am, but when the main wave came in later Friday aftrn as the bombing LP was moving N, it just hammered the hell out of us into Saturday am. (24"). 5.14" SWE, so very wet snow with 30-50+ mph winds. Big drifts. BTW, the LP off the East Coast was the weakening "Perfect Storm" from a couple days prior.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/index.html

https://gifmaker.me/

Halloween 1991 storm maps.gif

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Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either. 

Yeah things seem to get more active for sure. That carrot was briefly dangled earlier this month too. I guess we will see.


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With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed.

Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why?

November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter.

November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter.

November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter.

November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. 

Etc etc.

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27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

idk if it's gonna be your kinda winter mate

Im just telling it like it is. Whether its 2011-12 or 2013-14, the same November attitudes prevail.

I personally think this will be a typical up and down nina winter, in the end averaging slightly warmer than normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Again, thats all in the end. Wild swings, fun times and frustrating ones. 

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The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday.

They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter.

They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal.

Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals.

The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking.

Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana

 

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2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday.

They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter.

They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal.

Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals.

The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking.

Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana

 

Nice to know others share my thoughts!

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8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

With November a week away, I say this lightheartedly but in the 22 years ive been on weather forums, it has never changed.

Since November is kind of the doorstep to winter, its arguably the most annoying weather weenie month of the year. Why?

November is cold/snowy? Bad sign for winter.

November is mild/warm/sunny? Bad sign for winter.

November is dry? Bad sign heading into winter.

November is wet? Using up these storms tracks now, bad sign for winter. 

Etc etc.

Halloween is wet/rainy/snowy? Bad sign for winter.

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18 hours ago, Spartman said:

It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931.

I live up in Miami County.  I've had multiple nights of frost and one night dipping into the upper 20's.  

We had frost last night, windows on my truck were icy.

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It looks as though we'll have to wait until at last mid-November for the first freeze. Today's 12z CFS run wants to hold off on the first freeze until the final week of November. Latest first freeze in Dayton is November 25, 1931.

Yes, this is kind of exciting. The latest first freeze for Chicago is November 24. I think we could beat that.


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