Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DocATL]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1847600138174317053?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA

lol…November forecast. Is this a joke?

Literally no model shows this.


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[Frog Town]

16 hours ago, DocATL said:

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1847600138174317053?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA

lol…November forecast. Is this a joke?

Literally no model shows this.


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Looking at the pacific currently, November is gonna be chilly.  Almost a complete replication of November 2013.  Not saying it's gonna stick like 2013-2014, but that sure would be nice.  

[DocATL]

I mean to even see this on a model is absolute insanity. There is something very wrong with our planet rn

Ummm yes. The 850’s at the end of the op run…never seen that before in November. Especially after a period of prolonged warmth.


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[DocATL]

yeah, I'd argue this would be more impressive than March 2012 if it were to verify. You'd probably have to back to the Medieval Warm Period to see anywhere near this magnitude of Nov warmth. And it's not just one run either, there's been a very strong growing signal for a while now. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if we see our warmest winter on record if this same overall pattern lingers throughout the season (not saying that it will).

Chicago’s first freeze was Nov 2nd last year. Likely going to be well past that this year.


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[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Looking at the pacific currently, November is gonna be chilly.  Almost a complete replication of November 2013.  Not saying it's gonna stick like 2013-2014, but that sure would be nice.  

I expect a mild November. Not only is that typical of La Nina, but most other signs right now are pointing to at least the first half of November being mild. No worries from me. We've enough Halloween and early November snowfalls in recent years to know it has nothing to do with winter. Would be nice for a snowy Thanksgiving. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

Ummm yes. The 850’s at the end of the op run…never seen that before in November. Especially after a period of prolonged warmth.


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I'd hold your horses on a 372 hr op run lol. There have been some impressive Nov warm spells before (2020, 1975). For most, November 1, 1950 remains the warmest November day on record, with many areas in the 80s. It cooled down big time by the 3rd however.

[A-L-E-K]

P good signal for a mega torch coming

[Powerball]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

P good signal for a mega torch coming

The only thing that could throw a wrench into things would be the potential formation and recurving of a typhoon in the western Pacific.

There'a a decent signal for that (although not a lock just yet) too.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS shows no less than six fronts moving through over the next sixteen days.  ZERO rain from any of them.  This is crazy.  Two months with no rain.

[DocATL]

I'd hold your horses on a 372 hr op run lol. There have been some impressive Nov warm spells before (2020, 1975). For most, November 1, 1950 remains the warmest November day on record, with many areas in the 80s. It cooled down big time by the 3rd however.

Oh yes I know it’s out to lala land, however, when you see that and you take into account how steadfast the ensembles have been about very impressive warmth, it’s not hard to see things playing out that way. We had a brief window of two or three days where models hinted at cold shots but that went away.


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[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Oh yes I know it’s out to lala land, however, when you see that and you take into account how steadfast the ensembles have been about very impressive warmth, it’s not hard to see things playing out that way. We had a brief window of two or three days where models hinted at cold shots but that went away.


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Oh I'm 100% sold on a mild weather pattern. But the gfs extended isn't exactly gospel is all I'm saying. Last year it probably had us hit 105-110° a dozen tomes and our max was 90° lol.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS shows no less than six fronts moving through over the next sixteen days.  ZERO rain from any of them.  This is crazy.  Two months with no rain.

How has this compared to previous months? I noted previously that Zanesville, Ohio had its fifth driest month on record (any month) in August with 0.17 inches, and driest of any month since October 1924. Now just two months later, they may eclipse that figure with just 0.13” so far and looking pretty dry for the next week.

[DocATL]

Oh I'm 100% sold on a mild weather pattern. But the gfs extended isn't exactly gospel is all I'm saying. Last year it probably had us hit 105-110° a dozen tomes and our max was 90° lol.

Good point, probably overdoing the magnitude. Ensembles have us warm but not 80’s.

Lake effect areas are gonna get annihilated in February. There is so much heat energy in the lakes right now.


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[TheClimateChanger]

52 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Good point, probably overdoing the magnitude. Ensembles have us warm but not 80’s.

Lake effect areas are gonna get annihilated in February. There is so much heat energy in the lakes right now.


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Looking solid, Doc.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'd hold your horses on a 372 hr op run lol. There have been some impressive Nov warm spells before (2020, 1975). For most, November 1, 1950 remains the warmest November day on record, with many areas in the 80s. It cooled down big time by the 3rd however.

I think we’d all take a couple days around 80, if it meant a blizzard with 30” of snow and subzero temperatures over the extended Thanksgiving holiday. Not real convinced 1950 is good analog at this point.

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think we’d all take a couple days around 80, if it meant a blizzard with 30” of snow and subzero temperatures over the extended Thanksgiving holiday. Not real convinced 1950 is good analog at this point.

1950-51 definitely not an analog, I was just noting it for the extraordinary warmth to open the month. Highs on Nov 1st were 81° in Detroit and 82° at Cleveland and judging by the lows in the 60s it was probably muggy. Then less than 4 weeks later the infamous snowstorm buried ohio and Pennsylvania (6.3" in Detroit).

[Daniel Boone]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1950-51 definitely not an analog, I was just noting it for the extraordinary warmth to open the month. Highs on Nov 1st were 81° in Detroit and 82° at Cleveland and judging by the lows in the 60s it was probably muggy. Then less than 4 weeks later the infamous snowstorm buried ohio and Pennsylvania (6.3" in Detroit).

2 feet from that one here in far southwest Virginia. 57" recorded in Southern West Virginia.

[A-L-E-K]

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

I’ve got photos from last year of my kid trick or treating in 2” of snow. This year we will bust out the Hawaiian Leis.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

2 feet from that one here in far southwest Virginia. 57" recorded in Southern West Virginia.

What a storm. This area did not have any 10"+ snowstorms in the 1940s or 1950s. It was really the most nickle and dime era of our record.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

What a storm. This area did not have any 10"+ snowstorms in the 1940s or 1950s. It was really the most nickle and dime era of our record.

1950 was an interesting autumn. In addition to the epic November snowstorm and the impressive heat of October 31 & November 1, there was an event known as "Black Sunday" which occurred on September 24 of that year. Must have been similar to the smoke pall that hit the northeast last June, but by all accounts, was even more impressive - perhaps aided by the general pollution and smog which was ubiquitous in that era and the lower sun angle of late September. The smoke allegedly originated from the Chinchaga Firestorm in western Canda. Was also freezing cold that day (probably aided in part by the smoke blocking the sunlight)... the high of 46F at Detroit is a daily record low and the third lowest for the month. The high was 45F on the 29th in 1967, and an absurd 41F on the 30th in 1899 [it was also 47F the prior day in that year].

[TheClimateChanger]

Allegedly, Columbus had its second earliest accumulating snowfall of record on the 15th. Looking at the WX code, there was hail reported. I wonder if it was actually graupel or small hail?

[DocATL]

Warmer than any Halloween I experienced when I lived in Atlanta. I’d guess it will moderate.


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[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Allegedly, Columbus had its second earliest accumulating snowfall of record on the 15th. Looking at the WX code, there was hail reported. I wonder if it was actually graupel or small hail?

Really surprised @buckeye has come out to gloat? Is anyone else in the subforum on the board yet for snowfall? Maybe that dude in the UP? I think if the subforum had been polled as to which city would see the first official measurable snowfall, Columbus would have been dead last.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What a storm. This area did not have any 10"+ snowstorms in the 1940s or 1950s. It was really the most nickle and dime era of our record.

Yeah, would of loved to experienced that ! My Relatives told me about it. Cousins were visiting from Dayton Ohio and were going back home after Thanksgiving and said their Car was completely covered and " looked like a Hump" in Lee County VA. He said the Snow was deep all the way back to Dayton. 

[Chicago Storm]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Allegedly, Columbus had its second earliest accumulating snowfall of record on the 15th. Looking at the WX code, there was hail reported. I wonder if it was actually graupel or small hail?

If it's coded as hail, it will not count towards being the 2nd earliest snowfall on record.

[Baum]

On 10/19/2024 at 3:01 PM, DocATL said:

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1847600138174317053?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA

lol…November forecast. Is this a joke?

Literally no model shows this.


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