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Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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A cool airmass will push into the northern half of the area this weekend. Looking like a few more chances of cool NW flow heading into the weekend after Labor Day.  Before we know it we’ll be tracking some rainy and windy fall storms

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23 minutes ago, madwx said:

A cool airmass will push into the northern half of the area this weekend. Looking like a few more chances of cool NW flow heading into the weekend after Labor Day.  Before we know it we’ll be tracking some rainy and windy fall storms

Yeah the next week to 10 days look like a pretty typical early September forecast. No complaints here at all. It'll be interesting seeing how the first part of fall evolves here, as in some ways it already feels like we made the switch from summer to fall conditions even before the heat of the last couple of days. Notably, even with the drier August we are still running at #5 YTD for precip, so it'll be interesting seeing if that continues or not.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

2006 had 0.2" on Oct 12th.

I remember that day well, 0.3” at O’Hare. Earliest accumulating snow on record for Chicago. I was a student at Deerfield High School, and watched close to an inch fall throughout the day. Patches stuck around in shaded spots til the next morning. 

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2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I remember that day well, 0.3” at O’Hare. Earliest accumulating snow on record for Chicago. I was a student at Deerfield High School, and watched close to an inch fall throughout the day. Patches stuck around in shaded spots til the next morning. 

Same here. Detroits earlier measurable snow on record. Some areas had more.

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3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Maybe some flurries. Just to get a taste. Save the rest for DJF.

Honestly you really don't even want anything, some of our better winters we pitched a shut out until like mid to late November.

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18 hours ago, rainsucks said:

October snow isn't happening this year. There isn't really a correlation anyway, so it doesn't matter.

I've decided your the most accurate guy on this board. Just go with the opposite of your thoughts and it's the best medium range forecasting tool I've seen in years. And I'm not be a smart ass(old school snark term).

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The October snow thing is a bit of a myth. Or should I say there's no definite correlation historically. Nearly half of Octobers see a trace of snow here, but I think the whole myth thing started with early season measurable snowfalls. A handful of snowy Novembers followed by crap Decembers the past decade haven't helped either. Plus the two snowy Decembers we did see the past decade saw nothing meaningful in Oct/Nov. So its really more a short term trend.

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15 hours ago, Baum said:

I've decided your the most accurate guy on this board. Just go with the opposite of your thoughts and it's the best medium range forecasting tool I've seen in years. And I'm not be a smart ass(old school snark term).

Well I've been right on just about every forecast I've made besides the July heat bust (which everyone else busted on as well), but okay lol. Whatever helps you sleep at night, I guess.

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