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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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0.0 Places from Harrisburg to York got some precip.  The entire complex  for the umpteenth time hit the Blue Mts and completely died That was 40% chance . It will take an 80% chance of rain to actually cause measurable precip for our area. Precip chance for the rest of the week have already fallen from 70%  to 50%. Not looking good thats for sure.

 

By the way back to back hurricanes for the GOM area  in the next two weeks and the LR show none of it hitting here. Thats just plain crazy. 

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Happy 1st day of Autumn to those who celebrate!! Some spots especially in southwest sections of Chester County saw some rain overnight with a spotter in Atglen reporting 0.40" - we saw nada up in East Nantmeal. For the many of us that missed out on rain last night there will be a better chance for many by Tuesday night through Wednesday. Temps this week will be not too far from normal to slightly below for the first week of fall.

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A mainly cloudy week start to the week through Wednesday. Temps remain in the 60's the next couple of days with a small chance of showers late this afternoon. Shower chances increase a bit by Tuesday night through Wednesday. Sun returns Thursday with temps a little above normal to finish the work week and falling to close to near normal by the weekend.

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After a general light rainfall across the county yesterday with well below normal temps we should see another day with highs remaining in the 60's with clouds. Rain chances increase again by late tonight through Thursday morning. By Thursday we warm to above normal in the mid to upper 70's before drying out and cooling down for the weekend.

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20 hours ago, Lady Di said:

We had a thunderstorm on Saturday night late-2:30am maybe.  Nothing for you guys here?

Nope, stuck on .1" for the month. Had a trace yesterday and a trace on saturday, nothing major.

 

On 9/22/2024 at 5:31 PM, RedSky said:

Extremely rare record snowfall in South Africa

 

Is this a good signal for winter 2024-25? :snowman:

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Nope, stuck on .1" for the month. Had a trace yesterday and a trace on saturday, nothing major.

 

Is this a good signal for winter 2024-25? :snowman:

Quite frankly, I don't know because it's a fluky event that has no precedence. It would be like if it snowed in Orlando during the vernal equinox, and asking if it's a good signal for Melbourne during the Austral winter. It hasn't happened before, so I couldn't tell you one way or the other.

I mean, we got a fluke snow event in late October 2011, and that winter ended up as one of the warmest and least snowy on record.

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20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Quite frankly, I don't know because it's a fluky event that has no precedence. It would be like if it snowed in Orlando during the vernal equinox, and asking if it's a good signal for Melbourne during the Austral winter. It hasn't happened before, so I couldn't tell you one way or the other.

I mean, we got a fluke snow event in late October 2011, and that winter ended up as one of the warmest and least snowy on record.

I know, sorry I should have used a sarcasm emoji :lol: 

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If I had to venture a guess on this winter, my gut feeling tells me it will be somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21. Those years are the best match on the RONI/MEI. I think we get a snow event in the first half of December, then a lull in snow until the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, with the snow season coming to an abrupt end around February 22nd.

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Currently 66f humidity 96% dewpoint 65f

picked up 0.10" of rain today.

Crazy stat here:  We have picked up 0.18" since August 16th.

 

So..... How are we feeling about the -2.7 NAO????

The blocking is off the chart!!!!

Helene will give us zippo.

 

Not many talking about this but when Helene makes landfall down in Florida this thing is coming to a grinding halt first and quite frankly it will be a disaster Florida Panhandle through all of the Southeastern States namely Georgia, South Carolina, southern North Carolina, and eastern and central Tennessee thanks to the blocking.  

I mean 967 mb just north of Macon Ga.  is a disaster especially for Savannah, Hilton Head Island all places Atlanta points south and east.

Record Rainfall coming and probably winds gusting past 80 mph for certain.

This storm merges combines with an upper level low and also is blocked from coming north and northeast with a very strong pressure gradient!

Helene will not just be an at the coast event.  Helene will remain a powerful mid latitude low all the way to eastern Tennessee. 

The Southeast is in Trouble with this one!

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