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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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Clouds should rule the sky through Thursday with small rain chances the further north and west you are from the Delaware Valley.....so for most of Chester County not much more than 0.10" or so of rain if that much! It will be increasingly muggy but temps will remain in the 70's for highs with nights in the low 60's before we turn cooler again for the weekend. By Sunday the higher spots in the County will struggle to escape the 60's for high temps.
Chester County Daily records for today: All set at Phoenixville High 95 degrees (1942) / Low 32 degrees (1986) this was the earliest recorded freezing temperature in Chester County history. / Rain 5.90" (1999)
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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Model wars the final battle for life giving H2O is afoot

Through the next 72 hours:

 

Team H2O

ECM 2.5"+

NAM 1-4"

ICON .50"+

 

Team drought city

GFS/UKMET trace

CMC trace to .10"

 

 

 

a no brainer- team drought city- by 5 touchdowns. Winner  CMC .10 in north of Rt422 with .50 in closer to philly. 

 

 If you really want to see irrefutable evidence of the seriousness of  the current drought conditions that (MT Holly and other naysayers keep denying) that we are in, just drive over to Green Lane Reservoir near Green Lane on RT 29  in Montgomery County. The reservoir is down by at least ten feet and the past water line marks are clearly shown on the bridge piers while crossing the reservoir.  Furthermore, the banks are now extended at least 10 feet out into the lake.  That is the lowest level I have seen in a real long time.  This reservoir directly feeds the metro Philly area as their main water  source when the the Schuylkill river levels are down. They have to reduce pumping out of the river because of the existing sewage treatment plants from Hamburg/Reading/Pottstown/Collegeville/ Phoenixville/ Oaks/Audubon and the Limerick Nuclear cooling tower plant discharges when the river flows are down big time. That why I really think the these govt officials are literately full of shit when it comes to drought talk. They are not hydrologists- I am.

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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Model wars the final battle for life giving H2O is afoot

Through the next 72 hours:

 

Team H2O

ECM 2.5"+

NAM 1-4"

ICON .50"+

 

Team drought city

GFS/UKMET trace

CMC trace to .10"

 

 

 

I have .1” on the month so far. Driest September on record could be in reach if this is a complete whiff like the GFS CMC ICON and NAM now show. Nothing really on the horizon after this either.

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 I love MT Holly weather discussions . Here it is at 3 in the morning

 

Current conditions at

Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport (KXLL)

Lat: 40.57°NLon: 75.49°WElev: 400ft.

Partly Cloudy

66°F

19°C

Humidity83%

Wind SpeedN 3 mph

Barometer30.13 in

Dewpoint61°F (16°C)

Visibility10.00 mi

Last update18 Sep 2:35 am EDT

 Yes guys , it is so COOL. Nobody can sleep when it is dam near 70 degrees  with 80%+ humidity without the AC on. Please stop identifying 60 degrees as cool for overnight lows.

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There has been some light showers and drizzle across most spots in Chester County this morning. Here in East Nantmeal we have picked up a scant 0.04" of liquid gold - we are over 2.50" below normal so far here in September....but still running on a surplus of over 3 inches for the year to date. Shower chances will continue till tomorrow before we clear out and cool down over the weekend. By the end of the weekend and start of the new work week temps will struggle to escape the 60's in higher spots with lows well down into the 50's with even some 40's again in the lower elevations across the area.
Chester County records for today: All records at Phoenixville" High 96 degrees (1942) / Low 33 degrees (1986) / Rain 5.07" (2004)
image.png.c76fe8d411080c50912f5b5bf4696a61.png
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On 9/17/2024 at 4:12 PM, Albedoman said:

a no brainer- team drought city- by 5 touchdowns. Winner  CMC .10 in north of Rt422 with .50 in closer to philly. 

 

 If you really want to see irrefutable evidence of the seriousness of  the current drought conditions that (MT Holly and other naysayers keep denying) that we are in, just drive over to Green Lane Reservoir near Green Lane on RT 29  in Montgomery County. The reservoir is down by at least ten feet and the past water line marks are clearly shown on the bridge piers while crossing the reservoir.  Furthermore, the banks are now extended at least 10 feet out into the lake.  That is the lowest level I have seen in a real long time.  This reservoir directly feeds the metro Philly area as their main water  source when the the Schuylkill river levels are down. They have to reduce pumping out of the river because of the existing sewage treatment plants from Hamburg/Reading/Pottstown/Collegeville/ Phoenixville/ Oaks/Audubon and the Limerick Nuclear cooling tower plant discharges when the river flows are down big time. That why I really think the these govt officials are literately full of shit when it comes to drought talk. They are not hydrologists- I am.

Nailed this forecast

 

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On 9/17/2024 at 12:10 AM, LVblizzard said:

Clear skies for days and suddenly we get clouds on a night when the aurora is visible. Unreal how that always seems to happen.

Don't forget the obscured Full Super Harvest Moon partial eclipse! :P

I managed to eek out 0.02" yesterday morning, which comes out to almost 1/4 of my entire September rainfall which has yet to breach the tenth of an inch mark (am at 0.09" so far).

After a mild 70 low yesterday, I made it to 76 as a high.

It's currently 64 with dp 60.

 

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Today some spots may see there last chance for an 80 degree high until next Spring. Our last 80 degree reading last year was on September 9th. We should see a steady cool down starting tomorrow with highs by Monday no higher than the 70 degree mark. Unfortunately our next rain chance looks to wait till the middle of next week at the earliest.
Chester County records for today: HIgh 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1983) / Low 32 degrees at Phoenixville (1943) / Rain 3.27" at Coatesville 1SW (1894)
image.png.d69a6b66abe3921da77fbe58292c3b14.png
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Today and tomorrow look like our last above normal temperature days for a while with highs both days well into the 70's at higher spots with low 80's at some of the valley locales. Highs starting Sunday through Thursday will mostly remain in the 60's. Rain chances finally look more likely by later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Chester County Records for today: High 97 degrees at Kennett Square (1895) / Low 32 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1956) / Rain 4.40" at West Chester (1989)
image.png.7e458d5d3121da8f6e81c0b0bc6de6dc.png
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This afternoons GFS runs indicate back to back hurricanes at less than 930 mb (Katrina)  in the GOM Time to take these storms seriously. Two strong Cat 4 + hurricanes will destroy many areas and I see massive evacuations taking place. However the first hurricane dies over the TN Valley and never hits us  with little tropical remnants like Francine.  The desert climate regime will be  maintained.  

Had a back hoe near my property replacing a 24 in stormwater pipe.  The ground 4-6 ft  down in the trench was literally like powder. I have never seen the entire soil profile that dry. As I said a few days ago, the maple leaves are just now turning brown too and falling off now- scorched. Not much red in the leaf color this year. 

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On 9/17/2024 at 4:12 PM, Albedoman said:

a no brainer- team drought city- by 5 touchdowns. Winner  CMC .10 in north of Rt422 with .50 in closer to philly. 

 

 If you really want to see irrefutable evidence of the seriousness of  the current drought conditions that (MT Holly and other naysayers keep denying) that we are in, just drive over to Green Lane Reservoir near Green Lane on RT 29  in Montgomery County. The reservoir is down by at least ten feet and the past water line marks are clearly shown on the bridge piers while crossing the reservoir.  Furthermore, the banks are now extended at least 10 feet out into the lake.  That is the lowest level I have seen in a real long time.  This reservoir directly feeds the metro Philly area as their main water  source when the the Schuylkill river levels are down. They have to reduce pumping out of the river because of the existing sewage treatment plants from Hamburg/Reading/Pottstown/Collegeville/ Phoenixville/ Oaks/Audubon and the Limerick Nuclear cooling tower plant discharges when the river flows are down big time. That why I really think the these govt officials are literately full of shit when it comes to drought talk. They are not hydrologists- I am.

well, it made channel 69 news tonight https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/southeastern-pa/officials-watching-reservoir-levels-in-mont-co-urge-residents-to-conserve-water/article_b9f19726-7797-11ef-9b46-bb83d07735ae.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

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