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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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Well I made it up to 77 for a high today and Mt. Holly was right about the hit or miss chances with the rain as I only got 0.05" with the pre-frontal line that was literally opening up a hole over me, and the post-frontal that finally cleared, merely wet the walk with nothing more measurable. :axe:

It did manage to dramatically drop my temp almost 15 degrees when it came through.

I am currently at my "low" for the day, which is cooler than whatever it was this morning, and clearing, with dp 59.

outdoor-temp-dewpoint-435pm-09072024.PNG

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3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Actually 1999, I think.  It was super dry and along came Floyd on September 17th, 1999, and dropped 10-17" of rain lots of flooding.

Floyd came up from North Carolina and passed right along the Jersey shore 40 mph Tropical Storm as the cold front slowly pressed in from the west.

We had a pre-event then Floyd then the cold front squeezed everything out.  The front crossed through with 40 mph winds as Floyd swept by moving NNE.

 

Yeah must have been thinking of that trash winter 98-99. 

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Some folks saw a little bit of rain yesterday with the most I could find being the 0.58" at Devault. In East Nantmeal we received 0.23".
Much chillier across the area again this morning with widespread 40's for lows, high temps today will struggle to escape the 60's in the higher spots in the county. Another chilly night in the mid 40s tonight before a slow warm up this week gets us to above normal temps in the lower 80's for many spots. Unfortunately no rain in the forecast through the upcoming work week.
Chester County records for today: High 97 degrees at Phoenixville (1939) / Low 40 degrees at Coatesville 2W (1984) / Rain 5.53" at Honey Brook (1987)
image.png.54cbab0e9e2c03f3b77ffd6f80e03dde.png
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Something came through overnight to give me 0.01", making for a 2-day of 0.06".  Will probably have to pull out the hose again.  I bottomed out at 51 this morning and it took awhile to finally hit 70, and did make it to 71 for a high at about 3:30 pm today. 

It's currently a mostly sunny 68 with a big bonus - a dp of 43.

In other news, PTC-6 is here, so may become a Francine eventually.  Based on the current cone, we might be able to get some of that moisture here at some point if it accompanies a front.

210159_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Today will likely be our 8th straight day with below normal temperatures. But beginning tomorrow we should warm to near and then above normal as the week progresses. No rain in sight for this week.
Chester County records for today: High 97 degrees at Kennett Square (1897) / Low 34 degrees at Phoenixville (1986) / Rain 4.95" at Hopewell (1987)
image.png.6b792370bba0e8b3e71c8ad6a8bea266.png
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20 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Dry dry dry here it’s incredible all rain is blocked from here until September 23rd if you’re following the gfs.  I’ve never seen anything like it or should say haven’t seen a pattern quite like this in a LONG time.

2007 was like this until the mudstorm in late October (probably prevented 2007-08 from being a full-fledged drought). That year had a 90-degree day in late September and an 89-degree day on October 8. October ended up as the warmest on record. November and December were cooler than average. January-April 2008 were warm, but nothing out of the ordinary (2-3 degrees above average each month). Overall, a well below average snowfall season.

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The 1st 10 days of September have been the 2nd chilliest start to the month in the 21 years of records I have here in East Nantmeal...only 2017 got off to a chillier start.
Our slow moderating trend continues today through the weekend with temps reaching the low to mid 80's by the weekend but continuing comfortable humidity and seasonably cool nights.
Chester County records for today: High 99 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1897) / Low 34 degrees also at Coatesville 1SW (1924) / Rain 3.86" Morgantown/Elverson (1960)
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The great stretch of late summer / early fall weather continues across the area with similar temps and low humidity almost every day through at least Tuesday. Highs will remain in the upper 70's to low 80's with some early morning fog possible each day and seasonably cool nights in the 50's. Next needed rain chances may appear by the middle of next week with a potential tropical disturbance along the east coast.
Chester County Records for today: High 98 degrees at West Chester (1983) / Low 35 degrees at Phoenixville (1977) / Rain 5.96" at Phoenixville from the impacts of Hurricane Donna (1960)
image.png.feff9a9c13de030309abfba18ad45341.png
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Temps should finally warm to above normal values this afternoon and through the weekend before we fall back to normal or slightly below normal by the start of the new work week. The next small chance of any rain looks to be toward Wednesday next week.
Chester County Daily Records for today: High 96 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1952) / Low 33 degrees at Phoenixville (1943) / Rain 6.30" at Devault 1W (1971)
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3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

image.thumb.png.97dcdd2f6e064b0ce0040f0de993a9af.pngDirect Hit from Tropical Storm Wednesday 5 am I’m all in!!! Bring on the rain!!!  What can go wrong!!

Weenie handbook rule #17: You don’t want to be in the bullseye this far out :D

Yeah, I have no doubt when this dry stretch ends it will be with flooding rains. It’s how we roll these days.

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Another couple of nice late summer days but a bit cooler tomorrow... before we see clouds and shower possibilities increasing from Tuesday through the end of the work week. There is a wide range of model rainfall amounts across the area....hoping some of the more generous models become reality this week.
Chester County Records for today: High 95 degrees at Phoenixville (1927) / Low 34 degrees at Phoenixville (1985) / Rain 3.10" at West Grove (1966)
image.png.3826d045a419d5e7bfaed8deed11af57.png
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Several of the lower spots in Chesco dropped into the 40's overnight with the lowest being the 46.1 at Warwick Township higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than 53.6.
We should not see overnight lows that cool again until next weekend as we have an increasingly cloudy more humid and possibly wet week on tap starting tomorrow night. Rainfall still does not look that impressive unless you head south and east of Philly but we can hope.
Chester County daily records for today: High 96 degrees at Phoenixville (1942) / Low 36 degrees at West Chester 2NW (1983) / Rain 7.85" at Coatesville 2W (1999) this was associated with the rains from Hurricane Floyd the 2 day total was 8.31" at Coatesville but over in Thorndale (where I lived at that time) we picked up a 2 day total of 8.61" of rain.image.png.c0c11821d70c350494c02744f1bb8343.png
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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Trace through day 10 except southeast sections on the ECM

 

This is the ultimate blocking pattern!!!  I mean nothing can come from the south or west NOTHING!!!

Our flow is coming from miles and miles off to our east-northeast from the Central and Northern Atlantic.

 

Meanwhile the flow is SCREAMING across Florida!

 

Looks like a moderate El Nino pattern to me!

 

Thoughts???

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Trace through day 10 except southeast sections on the ECM

 

who is MT Holly kidding?  .25 of an inch, thats just enough to get the streets wet for several hours. That's it. A dust rinse for the top of the cars. Its not even enough to get the dead bugs off the windshield. The leaves are just going to turn to brown and yellow and fall off. The corn will be dry enough to harvest by next week and the soybean fields are bright yellow now.  The weather  discussion keeps screaming 2 in downpours south of Philly. Have not seen a 2 in downpour here in western Lehigh county that since late July. Meanwhile everyone north of the turnpike is burning up.

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3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This is the ultimate blocking pattern!!!  I mean nothing can come from the south or west NOTHING!!!

Our flow is coming from miles and miles off to our east-northeast from the Central and Northern Atlantic.

 

Meanwhile the flow is SCREAMING across Florida!

 

Looks like a moderate El Nino pattern to me!

 

Thoughts???

Like i have said the typical El Nino and La Nina patterns are bringing different results because of wholesale atmospheric changes. 

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