The Iceman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Still a signal for something around Thanksgiving weekend. Euro has it too... lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 13 hours ago, Albedoman said: 2-3 inches are my intial thoughts for the LV proper , more around S Mt area and Blue Mt areas (3-5 inches). Strictly elevation driven snow accumaltions . For example, driving through Shimerville on Rt 29 and toward Bear Creek resort , I see some good accumalting snow. Same goes with driving through Wind Gap, Lehigh Tunnel and Rt 309. Big wet heavy snow flakes half dollar size to pancake size-white rain). The streets will cave in the LV for accumalation if it snows hard enough in the early morning and toward sunrise. Poconos 12+ in around Tobyhanna a good bet. Winter storm watches issued for the Pocono area by morning Advisories everywhere else after Euro run still sticking with this as my first call 13 hours ago. The 12Z models for GFS and CMC pretty much back me up. Lots of white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 First call… Philly: T Reading: C-1” Allentown: C-1” +550 feet in Berks/Chester/Bucks/Montco Counties 1" to 2" Hazleton: 4-6” Mt. Pocono: 6-10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Latest NAM increases model snow amounts for higher spots of NW Chesco and SE Berks to over 6" by Friday late night....but only an inch or so at lower spots like in The Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 7 hours ago, The Iceman said: I’d be happy just to see some flakes fly down this way, think there’s a decent chance of seeing that. Same. Just want to see some flakes falling...just to know it's still possible. 59F/Cloudy Accu weather throwing out a chance of a thunder banger. Good 2 days heading in...rain, snow chance, possible T-storm and a gusty. Best weather in months. There's our rain stuff out W...Pitt radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Same. Just want to see some flakes falling...just to know it's still possible. 59F/Cloudy Accu weather throwing out a chance of a thunder banger. Good 2 days heading in...rain, snow chance, possible T-storm and a gusty. Best weather in months. There's our rain stuff out W...Pitt radar. squall line overnight? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024112018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: squall line overnight? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024112018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png Cecily mentioned this yesterday...probably a little after midnight my way and 1-2am for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 You can see a narrow line forming over Pitt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Thunderstorm Warning so things are cranking up a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Latest HRRR has the line reaching the Chester County border at about 11pm this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Ch6 winter outlook tomorrow at 11pm. Yeah, it's a crapshot but what the hell... 57F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 26 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Ch6 winter outlook tomorrow at 11pm. Yeah, it's a crapshot but what the hell... 57F/Cloudy I trust my own outlook. So far spot on right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Put up the outdoor Christmas decor today....lots of lights, inflatables, garland, etc. Now just need some flakeage Friday to really finish the mood. The Yankee Candle sugared apple is burning...it's go time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 That GFS Tidbits looks a bit inflated (of course none of this is real but) - same run on WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 17 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: That GFS Tidbits looks a bit inflated (of course none of this is real but) - same run on WB Regarding this medium range potential centered around 11/28...it could actually work for many of us. But it does have alot going against it at this time, so I'm not sure I would get too vested in anything just yet. Pros: decent ridging in the NAO domain, cold air available, confluence appearing with cold HP pressing East along the Canadian Border, decent shortwave coming out of the midwest. Cons: NAO ridging breaking down quickly, Euro only model/ens really hinting at a 50/50 low, Atlantic is toasty. Mentioned a few days ago, I'm not sure we want anything amped up right now until we get farther along into December. Weaker wave sliding under us would be ideal imo. But like I said also, this could work out. Has some decent things going for it. We'll see how it plays out. Good to even be talking flakes at this time tbh. Euro with a 50/50 and wave under us: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 On 11/19/2024 at 1:15 PM, RedSky said: Deep cold in the long range to open December. All a perfect harbinger for a doomed winter. We watch Thanksgiving Starting at Midnight through Black Friday, February 1983 anyone LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Regarding this medium range potential centered around 11/28...it could actually work for many of us. But it does have alot going against it at this time, so I'm not sure I would get too vested in anything just yet. Pros: decent ridging in the NAO domain, cold air available, confluence appearing with cold HP pressing East along the Canadian Border, decent shortwave coming out of the midwest. Cons: NAO ridging breaking down quickly, Euro only model/ens really hinting at a 50/50 low, Atlantic is toasty. Mentioned a few days ago, I'm not sure we want anything amped up right now until we get farther along into December. Weaker wave sliding under us would be ideal imo. But like I said also, this could work out. Has some decent things going for it. We'll see how it plays out. Good to even be talking flakes at this time tbh. Euro with a 50/50 and wave under us: 100%, anything amped is going to be a mixed bag or cold rain for those of us in the coastal plain/95 potentially even further NW. would be prolific storm for central pa and the poconos. Weaker wave that slides underneath won’t be as prolific of a snowmaker but would be a nice region wide 2-4/3-6” storm for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Regarding this medium range potential centered around 11/28...it could actually work for many of us. But it does have alot going against it at this time, so I'm not sure I would get too vested in anything just yet. Pros: decent ridging in the NAO domain, cold air available, confluence appearing with cold HP pressing East along the Canadian Border, decent shortwave coming out of the midwest. Cons: NAO ridging breaking down quickly, Euro only model/ens really hinting at a 50/50 low, Atlantic is toasty. Mentioned a few days ago, I'm not sure we want anything amped up right now until we get farther along into December. Weaker wave sliding under us would be ideal imo. But like I said also, this could work out. Has some decent things going for it. We'll see how it plays out. Good to even be talking flakes at this time tbh. Euro with a 50/50 and wave under us: Steve, agree with everything you said....only think I question is the "atlantic is toasty" IMHO one of the least important issues for snow in the mid-atlantic. Give me the right track in winter and unless you are within 30 miles of the ocean I would take my chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Put up the outdoor Christmas decor today....lots of lights, inflatables, garland, etc. Now just need some flakeage Friday to really finish the mood. The Yankee Candle sugared apple is burning...it's go time. Mt. Holly lofted a Wind Advisory for the lower tier of the CWA starting tonight - Quote Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 620 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 DEZ001-NJZ013>027-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106-210900- /O.EXA.KPHI.WI.Y.0015.241121T0300Z-241121T0900Z/ New Castle-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Atlantic City, Millville, Freehold, Camden, Media, Lansdale, Pottstown, Cape May Court House, Glassboro, Doylestown, Wilmington, Moorestown, Oxford, Jackson, Pennsville, Mount Holly, Philadelphia, Reading, Honey Brook, Kennett Square, Sandy Hook, Morrisville, Ocean City, Hammonton, Collegeville, Wharton State Forest, West Chester, Norristown, Trenton, Long Beach Island, and Cherry Hill 620 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, central and southern New Jersey, and east central and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Hope your decorations are somewhat secure (might be hard with the inflatables). Made it up to 62 and it's currently 55 with dp 43. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Precip shield does not look promising at the moment for a soaking rain in the Lehigh Valley tonight. Someone plz talk me off the ledge on the subject. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 12 minutes ago, LVLion77 said: Precip shield does not look promising at the moment for a soaking rain in the Lehigh Valley tonight. Someone plz talk me off the ledge on the subject. I see the concern. But i think i also see some growth on a tail behind the first line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 I see the concern. But i think i also see some growth on a tail behind the first line. I think we are in a hell of a drought, and drought begets drought. Nowcasting this looks negative for tonight, particularly vs the initial forecasts of 1”+ rain tonight. I hope my post ages poorly and we get dumped on. I want to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Holy Smokes looks fine to me look at the line heading NNE geeze... Baltimore picked up .50" in like 10 minutes with winds 40-50 mph its coming. Currently here 55.8f humidity 72% dewpoint 47f and the pressure well it's falling rapidly Light rain here no trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Just heard distant thunder rumbling! It's been a long time, lol. This line is pretty active from what I've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 I think we are in a hell of a drought, and drought begets drought. Nowcasting this looks negative for tonight, particularly vs the initial forecasts of 1”+ rain tonight. I hope my post ages poorly and we get dumped on. I want to be wrong. Looks like I may have been wrong as the radar built up nicely with incoming precip shield from the southwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 The tail turned into an octopus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Did not have "spring-type thunderstorm knocking out power to my hotel in November" on my bingo card. Whelp... Flashy-flash! Thunderboom! Aaaand there goes the power. I'm in Newark, DE for work, and it's 11/20. But hey, at least it's freaking RAINING, finally??? So I guess we've all got that going for us, which is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Currently light to moderate rain lightning and rumbles of thunder overhead. Temp 53f humidity has risen from 72% to 86% in basically 15 minutes. Dewpoint 47f pressure 29.37 falling can that be right??? No wind yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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