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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

ye p , I called it over a week ago. Here come the sinkholes- twice in less than a week in Palmer Township. The groundwater tables are dropping like a rock-- literally  https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/easton/2024/09/25-foot-deep-sinkhole-opens-across-parking-lot-from-palmer-twp-warehouse.html

See any flames licking out of the ground as we descend into hell?

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

See any flames licking out of the ground as we descend into hell?

no hell yet but if we do not get 1-2" rains by the the third week in Sept, we will be in a drought watch if not a warning. I am pissed off because this is perfect grass seeding weather as far as temps go  but with no rain, the yard bare spots will be hard to heal before the frost and freeze sets in. Got down to 43 last night at my house however not much dew on the grass  which is not a good sign for relieving the drought conditions.

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46 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

no hell yet but if we do not get 1-2" rains by the the third week in Sept, we will be in a drought watch if not a warning. I am pissed off because this is perfect grass seeding weather as far as temps go  but with no rain, the yard bare spots will be hard to heal before the frost and freeze sets in. Got down to 43 last night at my house however not much dew on the grass  which is not a good sign for relieving the drought conditions.

Must be rare to see a drought squashed then return two months later but it's happening

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6 hours ago, Albedoman said:

no hell yet but if we do not get 1-2" rains by the the third week in Sept, we will be in a drought watch if not a warning. I am pissed off because this is perfect grass seeding weather as far as temps go  but with no rain, the yard bare spots will be hard to heal before the frost and freeze sets in. Got down to 43 last night at my house however not much dew on the grass  which is not a good sign for relieving the drought conditions.

We just need a mudstorm like late October 2007.

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Our stretch of below normal temperatures will continue for at least the next 5 days before we warm back to near or a little above by the middle of next week. Rain chances ramp up by Saturday late day.
Chester County records for today: High Temperature 95 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1898) / Low 41 degrees at Westtown (1896) / Rain 4.53" at Glenmoore (1979)
image.png.298400f5aefbbee0eebeb5e5020fd3dd.png
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Imagine the cold and snow in the winter following this modoki el nino: IMG_0226.thumb.png.1ef050583b16e16f29af6c110fe2da69.png.81e5a9a2492a3952d69e673a210e3737.png

I don't think this will happen next summer (as CanSIPS is showing), but I think something like this could form a year or two down the road (in 2026-27 or 2027-28). We'd probably be in +PDO and -AMO. The blob in the North Pacific looks eerily similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15.

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Cloudy today with temps getting close to normal before we slip back below normal over the weekend. We begin a warming trend that should get most of us back to the low to mid 80's next week...but without oppressive humidity and comfortably cool nights. Our best rain chance will be tomorrow afternoon...but we are not holding our breath!
Chester County Records for today: High 100 degrees at Phoenixville (1943) / Low 38 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1924 / Rain 7.60" at KMQS Coatesville Airport (2008)image.png.0ec7809c1f9af27e93987e642e29c1d7.png
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Some showers will be working there way from west to east across the area with the cold front passage. Temps will peak in the around 70 degrees before slowly falling late in the day. Rainfall unfortunately looks to be light...but any will help! Much chillier again tonight with lows in the 40's - on Sunday higher spots will struggle to escape the 60's for high temps. We start a slow warming trend during the upcoming work week - but no heat or humidity in site!
Chester County records for today: High 100 degrees at Phoenixville (1943) / Low 37 degrees at Devault (1984} / Rain 3.07" at West Chester (2008)
image.png.4b4bfbf6adc05436fc6af269434dd012.png
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27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, most of this fall is going to be dry, just as in my analog years of 1998 and 2007: cd73_196_27_132_250_13_29.7_prcp.png.05dd3d1ddc15597d552e5a6ca2c65b4d.png

We just have to hope for a mudstorm in late October like 2007. Otherwise, we'll have our first drought in a really long time.

1998 was the worst it better not

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

1998 was the worst it better not

Actually 1999, I think.  It was super dry and along came Floyd on September 17th, 1999, and dropped 10-17" of rain lots of flooding.

Floyd came up from North Carolina and passed right along the Jersey shore 40 mph Tropical Storm as the cold front slowly pressed in from the west.

We had a pre-event then Floyd then the cold front squeezed everything out.  The front crossed through with 40 mph winds as Floyd swept by moving NNE.

 

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