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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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22 hours ago, RedSky said:

First fantasy fake

 

firstflake.png

While obviously snow is unlikely, ensemble modeling is beginning to hint at an extended period of Atlantic blocking for the second half of the month. This should at the very least break the extended dry spell and shut off the well above normal temps. 

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8 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Another November cold front that's plunged my temp all the way down to 67F :arrowhead: 

If you're inside looking out it looks like Fall. Winds blowing, leaves colorful, falling and scampering down the street/pavement. Then step out, WTF? 67F and bright sun...at least the DP is low, 37F

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On 10/13/2024 at 10:18 PM, Albedoman said:

drought guy here- saying that this drought will be broken by Thanksgiving with a heavy rain storm followed by a  light snowfall event for the LV area.  After an initial  few weeks of cold/rainy and maybe even snowy  weather into late  November, the typical rain to snow precip pattern will return by the second week in December with decent cold snaps and maybe even some polar air reaching us by  Christmas. Then the flood gates will be opened for some major  snow events the rest of the winter with constant  refreshed clippers - similar to the winter of 2003 after a blistering drought in 2002.

 

Take away  for the next few months- the La Nina will slowly die off and we will have a ENSO  neutral winter in full effect by early January. This typical weather pattern brings real nice cold snaps, days of snow covered ground and a good chance of frequent arctic clipper MIller B snow events usually starting in the first to second week of December and lasting till March.  The usual  January  thaw maybe tempered this year folks in this pattern.

 

Until then, I see absolutely no significant rain until around Halloween to Election Day time period. I would not be surprised to see election Day to be a washout as our first significant rain event

OK  I said this almost a month ago- lets see how I am doing?

 

1. First measurable rain event in the last two months for Sunday  so close I said intially on Tuesday  this will "try" to break the drought

2. More rain events on tap after Sunday for late next week - this will help end these dying cold front pattern that  we have been experiencing. 

3. Snow events are now showing up on the LR models for our area just before Thanksgiving. 

4. A significant Blocking pattern is attempting to set up which will defintely throw some cold air our way is now showing up on the LR range models

I am a firm believer of historical patterns for weather  and just do not dwell on strictly on LR teleconnected modelogy like many younger people do. I grew up  and forecasted in a period where computers were not the cure all for LR forecasting.  They simply did not exist even for the pro's . This current drought pattern setup we are in is more extreme  but it all boils down to the same- NE Blocking and more good snow events patterns  are now setting up for late November into December  better than  we have seen in 20+ years.

gfs_asnow_neus_65 (2).png

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9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If you're inside looking out it looks like Fall. Winds blowing, leaves colorful, falling and scampering down the street/pavement. Then step out, WTF? 67F and bright sun...at least the DP is low, 37F

I just stepped outside and saw my first woolly bear -- thick brown stripe, winter cancelled!!

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Seasonably chilly day today with highs just a couple degrees below normal levels. Sunny today and finally some much needed rain tomorrow evening into the Monday AM commute! We warm to above normal temperatures on Monday before we chill back to normal readings for the rest of the work week.image.png.4895cda3ff0e5642aa075a29b91e8fb7.pngimage.png.f248d414df08036fa244d30338aef97b.png

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26 minutes ago, RedSky said:

https://www.youtube.com/live/bbxAI9YGpfU

Was up at 3am watching this apocalyptic looking fire

hopefully the rain we get next 24-36 hours will help.  We just don't know yet though how much we actually get.  I would say we get somewhere between 0.28-0.44" down here which would just about tie the amount the last time it rained here 0.38" on August 18th.  We shall see how the precipitation distributes around the area, but it would not be surprising if we underperform.

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Looking forward to the rain.  Too many fires around here.  The fire at the Glassboro Wildlife Management Area is just a couple miles from here.  The wind is out of the south now and the smoke has engulfed my neighborhood.  Here's a couple photos from over the last couple days.  

Evesham Twp fire.

IMG_20241110_042926_(1500_x_1090_pixel).jpg

 

 

Glassboro Wildlife fire.

 

IMG_20241110_042857_(1500_x_1045_pixel).jpg

IMG_20241110_043025_(1500_x_1125_pixel).jpg

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Most lower spots across the area were again well down into the 20's for overnight lows. Here in East Nantmeal we could go no lower than 36.6 degrees. We have yet to experience a freezing temperature here in EN....if we can make it through Wednesday this year would be the latest first freeze in the 21 years I have been at this location. Clouds are on the increase, and we will finally see our first widespread rain since September 29th across the area. The rain should start from west to east around the 7pm hour and be over before the Monday morning rush hour. Be careful if you are out driving this evening as rain will be falling on roads that have quite a bit of built-up oil and leaves. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs back into the mid 60's but by Wednesday higher spots in the county will struggle to escape the 40's for high temperatures and we could see a pretty solid freeze by Wednesday AM.

image.png.984f70cab699fdfd9c1d4ca3dfdb9bc5.pngimage.thumb.png.41d94e3dc7add22f5e4a6cd774a69a89.png

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10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Today marks the first day in about 3 months I have even needed to look at the HRR Model for short range tracking of precipitation.

Hope Mike remembered to turn the radar back on.

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Record 30" snow fell in the Las Vegas region

Taking the insanity up a notch

* how the fook does Vegas average 4" snow in November??? Hot dry Vegas?

 

They sucked up all of our moisture and cold.  Damn thieves.  

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Hot dry desert Vegas averages more snow in November than Philly in December

I read the news article that says Vegas averages 4 inches of snow in November, but according to the NWS, Vegas averages 0.2" of snowfall all year.  

"Snow itself has fallen in about two-thirds of the winter seasons at least once, however, it usually melts as it falls. Measurable snow at the official climate station typically occurs once every four or five years, however, higher elevations on the valley's west side such as the Summerlin area see measurable snow about every three years or so."

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1 minute ago, BBasile said:

I read the news article that says Vegas averages 4 inches of snow in November, but according to the NWS, Vegas averages 0.2" of snowfall all year.  

"Snow itself has fallen in about two-thirds of the winter seasons at least once, however, it usually melts as it falls. Measurable snow at the official climate station typically occurs once every four or five years, however, higher elevations on the valley's west side such as the Summerlin area see measurable snow about every three years or so."

Yeah something is amiss. Kinda assumed the article was focusing on the higher plateau of Las Vegas well northwest of the city.

 

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