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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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Here's my winter forecast:

 

Temps:

Dec +1 - +3

Jan +2 - +4

Feb +4 - +6

Mar +1 - +3

Overall +2 - +4

Snowfall at select locations

PHL  5-10"

TTN 8-14"

ABE 15-20"

ACY 4-8"

 

With how northern stream dominant the pattern has been this fall, I do think we see a return of the clipper this winter. Think this is how we receive most of our snow with several 1-3"/2-4" storms. I think this will also be a winter of big swings. Some pretty good cold shots followed by temps in the 70's a few days later. I don't see weeks on end of it being cold or warm. Precip overall below normal with a lack of southern stream interaction. We may sneak in a miller B that provides the area with it's biggest snowfall of the year(4-8" type deal) but not seeing a blockbuster as I expect the NAO to remain mostly positive. 

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46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If by 'beat' you mean a higher temperature on Christmas, then the answer is obviously no. Keep in mind, the record for the month of December at PHL is 73. It isn't going to be 80+ on Christmas, lol.

Well yeah, there's a bit of sarcasm to my post. As we head deeper into fall it should cool off, but...

Don't look now, another chance Philly approaches 80F again next week. 

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My winter forecast (PHL):

Dec: -1 to 0

Jan: +8 to +10

Feb: -1 to 0

Mar: +3 to +5

Overall: +3 to +4

Snowfall: 12-20 inches

Winter 2024-25 is going to have one outlier warm month (like February 2018, December 2021, and December 2023) that is going to skew the temperature departure. I feel that January is going to be the uber warm month, in a winter that is otherwise normal temperaturewise. In regards to snowfall, I see 07-08 being the floor and 20-21 being the ceiling. I see an early snow event around December 4-16, followed by a long snow lull through the end of January, with the bulk of the cold and snow in February.

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38 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Up to 80 degrees in East Nantmeal. This is the latest 80 degree reading in the 21 years I have taken observations here.

 

 

80 pic.jpg

The leaves fall in Nantmeal and suddenly it's warmer than the tarmac at PHL. As JLP would say, ah-mazin'.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

We made it to severe drought designation. Feel the rush of adrenaline drought guy?

 

The adrenaline rush I cannot feel right now. Have a upper respitory bug from all the pollen and dust and I have been coughing my ass off.  First time I have been sick in 5 years. I actually turned on the AC this evening as some idiot is burning in the neighborhood and the overnight lows will not get even  out of the mid 60's with cloudy skies holding in the heat. If I was betting man, we will hit near 80 again tomorrow even with cool frontal passage. What really  concerns me is that a drought emergency will be issued for many local water authorties in the next few weeks as those idiots in PADEP will not get off their ass to issue a drought warning.  I have dozens of people tell me in my municipal line of work, including well drillers  that they never have seen the creeks as dry as they are right now in the LV, and these people are in their 70's. 

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9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My winter forecast (PHL):

Dec: -1 to 0

Jan: +8 to +10

Feb: -1 to 0

Mar: +3 to +5

Overall: +3 to +4

Snowfall: 12-20 inches

Winter 2024-25 is going to have one outlier warm month (like February 2018, December 2021, and December 2023) that is going to skew the temperature departure. I feel that January is going to be the uber warm month, in a winter that is otherwise normal temperaturewise. In regards to snowfall, I see 07-08 being the floor and 20-21 being the ceiling. I see an early snow event around December 4-16, followed by a long snow lull through the end of January, with the bulk of the cold and snow in February.

Two out of three winter months below normal would feel like an old fashioned winter. Or like 2006 take your pick.

 

 

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Temp whiplash time from bottoming out at 35 on Oct. 28, to hitting a high of 80 here yesterday.  Also not a drop (not even a trace or fog trace either) for the entire month of Oct. IMBY.  The last measurable here was 0.05" on Sept. 29.

It's currently a mild 66 with dp 59 and a line of some sort, headed this way but my pessimism says it may start to breakup and/or thin out before it gets here.

kdix_20241101_1030_BR_0.41.png

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